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<\/p>\nResearch into the government’s key discounted housing program, which takes place through national lottery rounds, finds shifting patterns of the government’s prioritization by geography and population group. <\/p>\n
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\nPhoto by Uri Lenz \/ Flash90 <\/p>\n
Background<\/p>\n
The Target Price Program<\/p>\n
The government’s \u201cTarget Price\u201d program is one of the central components of a government initiative in Israel to offer housing discounts. Within this framework, the state markets land to developers at reduced prices and in return, developers sell housing units at prices significantly below prevailing market rates.<\/p>\n
The program\u2019s declared goals are socio-economic: to enable young couples and families to purchase housing at attainable prices and to encourage residential development in Israel’s periphery.<\/p>\n
Between 2022 and 2025, ten national lottery rounds allocated approximately 60,000 discounted housing units across dozens of localities in Israel.<\/p>\n
How the Lottery Mechanism Operates<\/p>\n
Because demand far exceeds supply, allocation of discounted units is conducted through national lotteries.<\/p>\n
Each lottery round includes specific cities and developments. Eligible applicants register for particular developments. Within each development, units are divided into defined allocation categories:<\/p>\n
Local residents
\nPersons with severe disabilities
\nGeneral applicants
\nBeginning with Lottery 7 in 2024: Reserve soldiers
\nBeginning with Lottery 10 in 2025: Combat reservists<\/p>\n
Each category receives a designated share of housing units and is subject to a separate draw. Reserve soldiers may also register in the general category or as local residents (if eligible), thereby increasing their chances of winning.<\/p>\n
As the number of applicants greatly exceeds the number of units, only a small proportion of registrants ultimately receive apartments.<\/p>\n
The study also notes a broader structural implication: although winners receive substantial financial benefits, the removal of thousands of units from the open market reduces supply for “non-winners.” Given persistent demand, this dynamic may contribute to rising prices for the majority of prospective buyers who do not win.<\/p>\n
\u201cTarget Price\u201d Program \u2013 Registration Opening and Closing Dates and Number of Units Lotteried (2022\u20132025)<\/p>\n
Objectives of the Study<\/p>\n The research examines two central dimensions:<\/p>\n Whether Haredi (ultra-Orthodox), Arab, and general populations are proportionally represented in the geographic distribution of lottery units. Methodological Approach<\/p>\n Data were drawn from the Ministry of Construction and Housing lottery website and from Israel Land Authority tender publications.<\/p>\n Geographic classification was based on demographic data from the Central Bureau of Statistics. Areas were defined as Haredi or Arab when more than 70% of residents belonged to that population group. Projects explicitly adapted for Haredi communities were also classified as such.<\/p>\n A sensitivity analysis using proportional weighting of mixed neighborhoods yielded similar overall patterns.<\/p>\n The study distinguishes between two governmental periods:<\/p>\n The 36th Government (\u201cBennett-Lapid\u201d), June 2021\u2013December 2022, which included Arab parties and did not include Haredi parties. Key Findings<\/p>\n Allocation to Special Population Categories<\/p>\n Across all ten lotteries, the distribution of housing units by allocation category shows a marked shift beginning with the introduction of the reservist preference.<\/p>\n In the first six lotteries (2022-early 2024):<\/p>\n 38% of units were allocated to local residents Beginning with Lottery 7 (2024), approximately 19% of housing units were allocated to reserve soldiers. This reduced the share available to general applicants to 40%.<\/p>\n In Lottery 10 (2025), the allocation to reservists increased to 36%, following expansion to include combat reservists. This increase coincided with a significant reduction in the share allocated to local residents.<\/p>\n Graph: Distribution of Units by Allocation Category Before and After the Introduction of the Reservist Preference (2022\u20132025)<\/p>\n
Geographic Distribution by Population Sector<\/p>\n Early Lotteries (2022)<\/p>\n In the initial phase of the program, most housing units were located in areas not clearly identified as predominantly Haredi or Arab.<\/p>\n Expansion of Haredi-Area Allocations (2023\u20132024)<\/p>\n From Lottery 5 (2023) through Lottery 8 (2024), there was a substantial increase in projects located in homogeneous Haredi areas or in developments explicitly adapted to Haredi communities. At peak, nearly half of all units were located in such areas\u2014approximately three times the Haredi share of the national population (around 14%).<\/p>\n During this period, Arab localities remained largely underrepresented relative to their demographic weight (Arabs represent about a fifth of the general population).[1]<\/a><\/p>\n Rebalancing in Lottery 9 (late 2024\/early 2025)<\/p>\n Lottery 9 marked a shift:<\/p>\n 17% of units were located in Haredi areas. Lottery 10 (2025)<\/p>\n Lottery 10 reflected a return to a broader geographic distribution, with almost all units located in areas not predominantly Haredi or Arab.<\/p>\n Graph: Share of Lottery Units by Geographic-Sector Classification (2022\u20132025)<\/p>\n
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\nWhether the allocation of units to reserve soldiers was implemented in a manner consistent with the stated objective of supporting them.<\/p>\n
\nThe 37th Government (Netanyahu-led coalition), December 2022 onward, which has included Haredi parties and not Arab parties.<\/p>\n
\n3% to persons with disabilities
\n59% to general applicants<\/p>\n
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\n21% were located in Arab areas, approaching proportional representation.<\/p>\n