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Scientists have highlighted just how high the stakes are as human-made climate change continues to rapidly warm Antarctica.<\/p>\n
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A new study published in the journal Frontiers in Environmental Science<\/a>, models the best- and worst-case scenarios for global warming on the Antarctic Peninsula, the northernmost part of the mainland.<\/p>\n Researchers warn that the continent\u2019s future \u201cdepends on the choices we make today\u201d, arguing that cutting emissions could avoid the most \u201cimportant and detrimental\u201d impacts of the climate crisis.<\/p>\n \u201cThough Antarctica is far away, changes here will impact the rest of the world through changes in sea level, oceanic and atmospheric connections and circulation changes,\u201d says Professor Bethan Davies of Newcastle University, lead author of the study.<\/p>\n \u201cChanges in the Antarctic do not stay in the Antarctic.\u201d<\/p>\n What\u2019s the \u2018worst case scenario\u2019 for Antarctica?<\/p>\n Scientists used scenarios where future emissions remain low (1.8\u00b0C temperature rise compared to preindustrial levels by 2100), medium-high emissions (3.6\u00b0C) and very high emissions (4.4\u00b0C).<\/p>\n They looked at eight different aspects of the Peninsula\u2019s environment affected by rising temperatures. These include marine and terrestrial ecosystems, land and sea ice, ice shelves, the Southern Ocean, the atmosphere, and extreme events like heatwaves.<\/p>\n In higher emissions scenarios, researchers concluded that the Southern Ocean will get hotter faster. Warmer ocean waters will erode ice both on land and at sea, increasing the risk of ice shelves collapsing and driving sea level rise<\/a>.<\/p>\n Rising sea levels have long been linked to increased coastal flooding and accelerated shoreline erosion. For every centimetre of sea level rise, around six million people on the planet are exposed to coastal flooding.<\/p>\n Under the highest emissions scenario, sea ice coverage could fall by 20 per cent. This will have huge impacts on species that rely on it, such as krill, which are an important prey for whales and penguins.<\/p>\n Higher ocean warming could also stress ecosystems and contribute to extreme weather. Multiple extreme weather events in recent years have been linked to the burning of fossil fuels, including the deadly Valencia floods of 2024<\/a> and last year\u2019s monsoon storms in Asia.<\/p>\n Researchers acknowledged that it can be difficult to predict how these environmental changes would combine to impact animals, but it is likely that many species will try to move south to escape higher temperatures.<\/p>\n \u201cWarm-blooded predators may cope with temperature change, but if their prey can\u2019t they will starve,\u201d the report states.<\/p>\n Climate change also poses a risk to research itself in Antarctica. Damage to infrastructure from rising sea levels, extreme weather and melting ice will make it harder for scientists to collect the data they need to forecast future impacts of rising temperatures.<\/p>\n