In the wake of the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel there have been major changes in the Middle East. Israel fought a multi-front war against Hamas, Hezbollah and Iranian proxies. In addition, Israel directly confronted Iran.<\/p>\n
As Israel enters 2026 there are discussions about what Israel\u2019s next moves will be. Will there be more confrontation in the Middle East? Will Israel continue fighting in Gaza, Lebanon, and on other fronts? Will Israel need to confront Turkey or Saudi Arabia in the future, as the power of Iran declines or the regime changes?<\/p>\n
Barak Seener and David Wurmser have written a new report titled \u201cIsrael 2048: A Blueprint for a rising asymmetric geopolitical power.\u201d It was published by the Henry Jackson Society\u2019s Centre for New Middle East in February 2026.<\/p>\n
Seener is an Associate Research Fellow at the Henry Jackson Society and the founder of Strategic Intelligentia and the Gulf Futures Forum, the report\u2019s introduction notes. Wurmser \u201chas been the executive and founding member of the Delphi Global Analysis Group, LLC \u2013 a firm specializing in geopolitical risk analysis and mitigation for companies from the United States, Europe, Japan and India operating in the infrastructure, raw materials, energy, high-tech, defense and financial sectors.\u201d<\/p>\n
An illustrative image of Israel on a map. (credit: SHUTTERSTOCK)Significance of this report<\/p>\n
This is an important new contribution to the discussion about what comes next for Israel and the Middle East. It roots Israel\u2019s strategy in Israel\u2019s history and in the West. It also looks at various key aspects of Israel\u2019s outlook today, from trade to Jewish immigration to Israel, as well as Israel\u2019s defense industries and the Eastern Mediterranean.<\/p>\n
It also attempts to bring the discussion up to the most present time, discussing Iran tensions and also what the authors characterize as a new rise in Sunni powers<\/a>. \u201cWhile the Shiite have entered a path to decline, the Sunni world is reawakening and reasserting imperial ambition in the form of the Muslim Brotherhood axis or in the form of the competing architecture of the Abraham Accords is now entering its phase of heightened challenge,\u201d they claim.\u00a0<\/p>\n This dovetails with recent statements from Jerusalem by Israel\u2019s prime minister that portray Israel as confronting both Iran and its proxies, as well as Sunni countries. This appears to create a policy whereby Israel shifts from fighting Iran to confronting countries such as Turkey and Saudi Arabia. It is not clear if this rapid shift to a new confrontation is in Israel\u2019s interests.<\/p>\n The report argues that October 7, 2023, \u201cshattered Israel\u2019s goal of maintaining the status quo\u201d in the region, \u201cforcing Israel into \u2018Zionism 2.0\u2019: a new era defined by sustained power projection, technological primacy, and a widening strategic theatre from Gaza and Lebanon to Iran, the Eastern Mediterranean, and Asia.\u201d<\/p>\n The report considers national security to be part of \u201ca multidimensional blueprint that fuses deterrence with preventive action, diplomacy, trade corridors, and defence technology as instruments of statecraft.\u201d<\/p>\n What does it mean for Israel to be a religious state?<\/p>\n The authors argue that the central warning to be taken from the events of October 7 is that \u201cIsrael\u2019s vulnerability is conceptual, not kinetic,\u201d contrasting theoretical understandings and principles with tangible, practical applications.<\/p>\n They are suggesting that Israel\u2019s core issue is ideological, not lying in the application of their power but the national mission on which that power lies.<\/p>\n \u201cWithout a coherent national mission rooted in Jewish civilizational identity and translated into a binding national security strategy, Israel risks remaining tactically dominant yet strategically exposed.\u201d<\/p>\n Seener and Wurmser go on to argue in the paper that this core weakness comes from Israel\u2019s Declaration of Independence<\/a>, when Ben-Gurion refrained from mentioning \u201cthe God of Israel,\u201d or \u201cthe Almighty and Redeemer of Israel,\u201d instead using the more ambiguous \u201cRock of Israel,\u201d saying \u201ceach of us, in his own way, believes in the \u2018Rock of Israel\u2019 as he conceives it,\u201d either as God or the land of Israel itself.<\/p>\n They contrast the Israeli Declaration of Independence with the preamble to the Irish constitution, signed at the end of 1937, just over 10 years before Israel\u2019s establishment as a state.<\/p>\n The preamble to the Irish constitution starts with \u201cIn the Name of the Most Holy Trinity, from Whom is all authority and to Whom, as our final end, all actions both of men and States must be referred,\u201d which the authors argue \u201cshowed that some states were quite willing to explicitly enshrine their religious tradition as an \u2018anchor\u2019 in state identity and policy,\u201d something that the founders of the State of Israel intentionally chose not to do.<\/p>\n \u201cIn turn, the Declaration of Independence lacked an ideological component that would inform Israel\u2019s future strategic decisions.\u201d<\/p>\n The report suggests that this missing \u201cideological component\u201d meant that it was unclear how Israel\u2019s democratic features would interact with its Jewish identity, leading to schisms that lie \u201cmore within the political establishment than within its public.\u201d<\/p>\n Israel and the wider world<\/p>\n The authors consider Israel to function as \u201cthe connector of three continents between East and West,\u201d both ideologically and literally.<\/p>\n They highlight the importance of Israel stepping into the role of \u201cthe west\u2019s strategic and technological hub,\u201d meaning that Israel should cement itself as an indispensable defense tech and deep tech power for the Western world, whilst also preparing to preserve and strengthen relationships with the Islamic world through expansion of the Abraham Accords.<\/p>\n They explain that \u201cwhile being culturally part of the West, Israel is geographically part of the Middle East, and will contend with an ever-changing Middle East that is accompanied by strategic realignments that will pose risks and opportunities.\u201d<\/p>\n The contrasting worlds that Israel occupies don\u2019t just affect international relations, they also affect internal policies. \u201cIn essence, there are two states within Israel \u2013 Arab and Jewish. Urban Israeli Arabs<\/a> are fighting with the Jewish State over the land of Israel and undermining the security of Jews by conducting land grabs and illegally constructing homes and villages without state authorization.\u201d<\/p>\n To deal with these internal issues, the report suggests that \u201cIsrael will have to shift resources from the army to the police and border police that deal with internal security due to security concerns around potentially radicalized and disloyal Israeli Arabs.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cThe Jewish state\u2019s potential threat from its Israeli Arab population and the social schisms created as a result is similar to Europe\u2019s challenge to contend with the domestic instability posed by the Red\u2013Green alliance. In essence, both Israel and Europe have Muslim populations of which a significant number pose a security threat as well as a demographic and political challenge.\u201d<\/p>\n They link these concerns to Israel\u2019s relationships with the Arab world, emphasizing the significant part that the Abraham Accords<\/a> have played in improving regional relationships, describing them as \u201cthe most promising shift in the Middle East.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cThe Abraham Accords is increasingly being underpinned by Israel\u2019s technological capabilities in the spheres of hi-tech and defense-tech. Israel is uniquely positioned in the region to offer advanced technology infrastructure and security capacity to protect data and energy flows,\u201d the report says.<\/p>\n They add that \u201cIsrael now has an opportunity to play a role in shaping the new world order whose outcome will be determined by the technological race between the US and China. Israel must side with the US and allocate its assets for the US to preserve its tech superiority.\u201d<\/p>\n In conclusion, Israel will need to think about its future strategy as the last several years of the war in Gaza have often been underpinned by short-term tactical decisions.<\/p>\n Israeli supporters abroad and countries that work with Israel will need to look at this strategy as well.<\/p>\n