{"id":322665,"date":"2026-03-05T06:05:14","date_gmt":"2026-03-05T06:05:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/322665\/"},"modified":"2026-03-05T06:05:14","modified_gmt":"2026-03-05T06:05:14","slug":"hezbollah-wades-into-israel-iran-conflict-but-calculated-restraint-may-wane","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/322665\/","title":{"rendered":"Hezbollah wades into Israel-Iran conflict, but calculated restraint may wane"},"content":{"rendered":"

Hezbollah\u2019s decision to start firing on Israel overnight Monday \u2014 ending months of relative quiet along the northern border \u2014 was not just a military move. It was a signal.<\/p>\n

Despite being pounded by Israel in the 2024 war, Hezbollah retains one of the largest missile arsenals of any non-state actor in the world.<\/p>\n

According to estimates from the Alma Research and Education Center, which analyzes security challenges on Israel\u2019s northern borders, as of February 26, the terror group had as many as 25,000 rockets and missiles \u2014 largely short and medium range \u2014 along with roughly 1,000 suicide drones. Its manpower is equally formidable: up to 100,000 regular and reserve operatives, including 5,000 fighters in the elite Radwan Force, described by Alma as \u201cthe core of the ground offensive force.\u201d<\/p>\n

According to Sarit Zehavi, founder and president of Alma, Hezbollah\u2019s decision to join Iran\u2019s fight against Israel came as no surprise.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe knew that once they got the orders from Iran, they would join,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

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And yet, when Hezbollah launched its rocket attack on Israel \u2014 its first since the US-brokered Israel-Lebanon ceasefire took effect in November 2024 \u2014 the strike was limited in comparison to previous engagements.<\/p>\n

Residents of Southern Lebanon filmed the launch of several rockets earlier by Hezbollah at Haifa in Northern Israel, with several of the rockets falling short and at least one being intercepted by the Israeli Air Force. pic.twitter.com\/IG4oTfW7JF<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 1, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n

Rather than unleashing sustained barrages or deploying significant portions of its long-range arsenal, the group has fired only a relatively small number of rockets and drones at Israel, and only began sending longer-range projectiles toward Tel Aviv on Tuesday.\n<\/p>\n

Israeli officials have acknowledged some surprise at the ranges involved, with a senior official telling Channel 13 that Israel \u201cdidn\u2019t think they would fire at these ranges.\u201d<\/p>\n

Still, the relatively measured pace of attacks, despite Hezbollah\u2019s far larger arsenal, has led analysts to conclude that the group is calibrating its involvement rather than committing fully to the fight.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat was them signaling [to Tehran], that \u2018we\u2019re still your proxy, but we\u2019re going to do the bare minimum,’\u201d Gregg Roman, executive director of the Middle East Forum, told The Times of Israel, adding that Hezbollah knew the price they were going to pay if they got involved.<\/p>\n

Yossi Kuperwasser, director of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, agreed with that assessment, emphasizing that Hezbollah\u2019s renewed and restrained offensive is not enough to tip the scales in the current military exchange between Israel and Iran, triggered by Jerusalem\u2019s Operation Roaring Lion on Saturday.<\/p>\n

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\n\t\tSmoke rises from the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted the Al Lailaki neighbourhood in Beirut\u2019s southern suburbs, with the city\u2019s international airport visible in the background, on March 4, 2026. (IBRAHIM AMRO \/ AFP)<\/p>\n

\u201cIt doesn\u2019t change the scope of the battle against Iran,\u201d he said. \u201cIt does mean [Israel] will have to dedicate some of [its] assets in order to deal with Hezbollah, not a major part of them, but some.\u201d<\/p>\n

In practice, Israel largely uses different air defense resources to counter Hezbollah\u2019s threats than it does against those from Iran. Hezbollah\u2019s largely short- and medium-range rockets are typically intercepted by Israel\u2019s Iron Dome and David\u2019s Sling systems, while Iran\u2019s long-range ballistic missiles are countered by the Arrow defense system.<\/p>\n

Roman assessed that Hezbollah is likely trying to preserve its long-range artillery, precision-guided munitions and middle-range rockets.<\/p>\n

The group \u201crealizes that if they use them, they\u2019ll immediately be taken out by Israeli jets,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

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\n\t\tIsraeli army and security forces conduct a sweep of a house that was hit by Hezbollah projectiles in Moshav Kfar Yuval in northern Israel near the border with southern Lebanon, March 3, 2026. (Jalaa MAREY \/ AFP)<\/p>\n

He also argued that anti-tank guided missiles \u2014 which played a major role in displacing some 100,000 Israelis from northern Israel during Hezbollah\u2019s attacks between October 8, 2023, and November 2024 \u2014 no longer pose the same threat after Israel sent troops deeper into southern Lebanon on Tuesday.<\/p>\n

\u201cTo prevent the possibility of direct fire at Israeli communities, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and I have authorized the IDF to advance and hold additional dominant terrain in Lebanon and defend the border communities from there,\u201d Defense Minister Israel Katz said in a statement.<\/p>\n

Yet Zehavi noted that despite Hezbollah\u2019s relative restraint, northern Israeli communities have faced near-constant red alert sirens in recent days \u2014 mainly due to drone infiltrations \u2014 both day and night.<\/p>\n

While she does not expect the kind of mass evacuations seen in 2023-2024, Zehavi stressed the ongoing strain on residents living under rocket and drone threats from Lebanon.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe communities next to the border have zero time to get to the bomb shelter,\u201d she said. \u201cIt will be a challenge to manage life in this atmosphere.\u201d<\/p>\n

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\n\t\tIsraeli tanks seen along the Israeli border with Lebanon in northern Israel, March 2, 2026. (Ayal Margolin\/Flash90)<\/p>\n

Another emerging development is that of concurrent attacks by Iran and Hezbollah, which began on Wednesday.<\/p>\n

At around 2 p.m., sirens sounded in central Israel due to one Iranian ballistic missile and some five rockets launched by Hezbollah timed to arrive at around the same time.<\/p>\n

The timing raised questions about whether the attacks were coordinated. However, the IDF said later that evening it had no intelligence indicating that the concurrent fire from Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon was the result of direct coordination.<\/p>\n

According to Kupperwasser, regardless of whether the launches were synchronized, both actors likely share the same objective: \u201choping to stretch Israel\u2019s missile defense, and cause severe damage to deter Israel and convince it to stop the war before achieving its goals.\u201d<\/p>\n

However, he emphasized that Israel\u2019s multilayered missile defense system was designed to handle different types of threats simultaneously and is capable of intercepting them \u2014 even when they arrive from multiple directions.<\/p>\n

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\n\t\tA man stands next to a stroller at a shelter after incoming missile sirens wailed in Tel Aviv on March 4, 2026. (Ilia YEFIMOVICH \/ AFP)<\/p>\n

Lebanese victims<\/p>\n

After Monday\u2019s attack triggered widespread Israeli strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam called the terror group\u2019s military operations \u201cillegal acts.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cWe declare a ban on Hezbollah\u2019s military activities and confine its role to the political realm,\u201d Salam said in a statement, demanding that Lebanon\u2019s military prevent further attacks.<\/p>\n

Roman explained that Hezbollah\u2019s move provided Lebanese leadership with a political opening to formally proscribe Hezbollah\u2019s armed wing, which was supposed to give up its weapons following the 2024 war.<\/p>\n

Hezbollah\u2019s attack gave Beirut a \u201creason to say we are now outlawing all militant Hezbollah non-state activity,\u201d Roman said, while also signaling to Israel that the Lebanese government is not involved in Hezbollah activity and that the IDF should not target state infrastructure, such as power plants and ports.<\/p>\n

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\n\t\tA blaze sweeps following Israeli bombardment on a solar farm and electricity generation facility in Lebanon\u2019s southern coastal city of Tyre on March 4, 2026. (Kawnat HAJU \/ AFP)<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Lebanese government is doing everything they can to distance themselves from Hezbollah without actually having a conflict with them,\u201d Roman said.<\/p>\n

Kuperwasser said Salam\u2019s statements reflect broader public frustration in Lebanon, with many civilians likely asking, \u201cWhy are we putting ourselves in the middle of something we are not directly involved in?\u201d<\/p>\n

The toll on Lebanon\u2019s civilian population was evident on Monday, with many fleeing the country\u2019s south following IDF strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure, causing major traffic jams.<\/p>\n

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\n\t\tA handout photo released by the Lebanese Government Press Office on March 2, 2026 shows Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam speaking at the end of the ministerial council at the Presidential Palace of Baabda, east of Beirut (Handout \/ Lebanese Government Press Office \/ AFP)<\/p>\n

Over 70 people have been killed in the Israeli strikes, according to Lebanon\u2019s Health Ministry. The country\u2019s president Joseph Aoun has asked the US to step in to halt the Israeli attacks.<\/p>\n

Speaking to evacuees Wednesday, Salam assured them that they were \u201cvictims of policies not of their making.\u201d<\/p>\n

Pressured in<\/p>\n

During the 12-day war between Israel and Iran in June, Tehran reportedly asked Hezbollah to fire at Israel, but the terror group refused. This time, it seems, they had no choice.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey had to adhere to the orders from Tehran,\u201d Kuperwasser said. \u201cThey try to pretend that\u2026 they are the protectors of Lebanon\u2026 Now it is clear that this is an Iranian organization that operates according to the orders from Tehran and totally ignores the needs of Lebanese security.\u201d<\/p>\n

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\n\t\tDisplaced people fleeing Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon sit in traffic at a highway linking to Beirut, in the southern port city of Sidon, Monday, March 2, 2026, after Hezbollah fired rockets into Israel (AP Photo\/Mohammed Zaatari)<\/p>\n

Kuperwasser said that the turning point may have come with the killing of Iran\u2019s supreme leader Ali Khamenei in the opening salvo of the US-Israeli bombing campaign on the Islamic Republic on Saturday.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Iranian pressure was building up, and the elimination of Khamenei just may have been the straw that broke the camel\u2019s back,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Zehavi speculated that the reason why Hezbollah didn\u2019t join earlier was because of the \u201cchaos in Iran,\u201d following Operation Roaring Lion\u2019s dismantlement of the regime\u2019s top brass.<\/p>\n

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\n\t\tA young mourner holds a picture of Iran\u2019s supreme leader Ali Khamenei during a memorial rally held by supporters of Lebanon\u2019s Shiite Muslim Hezbollah movement a day after he was assassinated in Iran during a US and Israeli offensive, in Beirut\u2019s southern suburbs, March 1, 2026. (Anwar AMRO \/ AFP)<\/p>\n

According to Roman, pressure to get involved came not only from Iran, but from some parts of Hezbollah\u2019s domestic Shia base.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf Hezbollah did not engage, I think they would find themselves in a situation where they would lose complete legitimacy with any diehard Khamenei supporters who are left in [Lebanon],\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Potent, and wide, threat<\/p>\n

Despite the restrained nature of Hezbollah\u2019s opening attacks \u2014 and the damage the group has sustained after months of Israeli airstrikes \u2014 Kuperwasser cautioned against dismissing the threat it still poses.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe cannot underestimate Hezbollah, not even after everything [Israel] did to them,\u201d he said, referring to Israel\u2019s sustained targeting of the group\u2019s terror infrastructure during the 2024 conflict and in the more than a year of fighting that followed.<\/p>\n

Zehavi agreed that Israeli operations have significantly degraded Hezbollah\u2019s capabilities, saying the group no longer has the capacity to launch a ground invasion into Israel. Still, she stressed that the IDF\u2019s work in Lebanon is far from finished.<\/p>\n

\u201cYou need to go deeper [into Lebanese territory],\u201d she said, noting that while Israel has cleared much of the terror infrastructure in the country\u2019s south, Hezbollah continues to maintain strongholds farther north \u2014 some 10 kilometers (6 miles) or more from the border, particularly north of the Litani River.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere is a lot of work to be done,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

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\n\t\tSmoke rises from Israeli airstrikes on Dahiyeh in the southern suburb of Beirut in response to Hezbollah rocket fire, early Monday, March 2, 2026. (AP Photo\/Hussein Malla)<\/p>\n

However, Roman noted that Hezbollah could shift away from attacking from Lebanon and instead unleash terror in Western countries far from the front lines.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf there is a Hezbollah response against Israel, we may not see it on the northern border. We may see it in the realm of asymmetrical warfare with attacks in Europe,\u201d Roman said.<\/p>\n

The group has been known to carry out terror attacks on Israeli and Jewish targets in Europe and elsewhere, including the July 2012 bus bombing at Burgas airport in Bulgaria that killed five Israeli tourists and a Bulgarian bus driver. On Wednesday, Iran threatened that it could target Israeli embassies worldwide, a task that Hezbollah has taken on in the past.<\/p>\n

Roman pointed to Latin America as a possible arena for Hezbollah activity, with the organization having maintained a documented presence there since the early 1980s, establishing networks across at least 12 countries from Mexico to Argentina, according to the RAND Corporation, an American nonprofit global policy think tank.<\/p>\n

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\n\t\tIsraeli emergency workers carry a body bag away from the site of the Burgas bus attack at Burgas airport, Bulgaria, July 18, 2012. (Dano Monkotovic\/FLASH90\/JTA)<\/p>\n

\u201cThat\u2019s where I\u2019m expecting Hezbollah to operate \u2014 not in border-to-border conflict,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

A message to the proxies<\/p>\n

Hezbollah is considered Iran\u2019s strongest proxy, but it\u2019s far from the only group in the region that backs the country and that could follow suit and enter the war, including Iraqi militias and Yemen\u2019s Houthi rebels.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe have this whole mantra: Go for the head of the octopus. The thing is, people don\u2019t realize the appendages have their own minds too,\u201d Roman said about Iran\u2019s \u201cAxis of Resistance.\u201d<\/p>\n

Israel\u2019s response to Hezbollah \u2014 marked by extensive strikes on terror infrastructure and the elimination of senior figures, including the head of Hezbollah\u2019s intelligence arm \u2014 is intended as a clear warning to the others, he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s definitely telegraphing a message to the Houthis and Shia militias in Iraq.\u201d<\/p>\n

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\n\t\tSupporters of Yemen\u2019s Iran-backed Houthi rebels brandish weapons during an anti-Israel rally in Sanaa on October 17, 2025. (Mohammed HUWAIS \/ AFP)<\/p>\n

Kuperwasser agreed that Israel\u2019s military response is something those groups \u201chave to take into account.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cI think the Houthis are still licking their wounds from last time,\u201d Roman said, referring to Israel\u2019s August 28, 2025, strike on Yemen that killed Houthi Prime Minister Ahmed al-Rahawi, along with several other ministers and top Houthi officials.<\/p>\n

Still, he did not rule out their involvement. During the war with Gaza, the Houthis launched hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones at Israel, and partially shut down shipping in the Red Sea, a tactic the group could resume.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think you can expect at least token attacks on Red Sea shipping in the next week,\u201d Roman said.<\/p>\n

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