China has set its target for GDP growth to a record low of 4.5-5%, the first time since 1991 that the figure has dropped below 5%, reflecting an economic strategy that is shifting away from export-led growth to a model that leaders hope will be more resilient to external shocks.<\/p>\n
Li Qiang, China\u2019s premier, announced the target for 2026 in the opening session of the National People\u2019s Congress<\/a> (NPC), China\u2019s annual parliamentary gathering, which began on Thursday.<\/p>\n Addressing the nearly 3,000 delegates gathered in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, Li described 2025 as a \u201ctruly remarkable\u201d year with \u201cprofound and complex developments both at home and broad\u201d, according to the text of the government work report.<\/p>\n China also on Thursday published a draft of the 15th five-year plan, an economic strategy for the period 2026-2030, which will be formally voted on next week. The plan includes chapters on boosting consumption and enhancing innovation, key priorities for Beijing over the next five years.<\/p>\n Li Qiang, China\u2019s premier, said that 2025 was a \u2018truly remarkable\u2019 year. Photograph: Wu Hao\/EPA<\/p>\n The low GDP target was reflective of a shift to what Beijing is calling \u201chigh-quality growth\u201d \u2013 that which is built on hi-tech industries and structural reform rather than the historic drivers of construction and exports.<\/p>\n China is also grappling with downward pressures on its economic growth<\/a>, such as an ageing population, an ailing property sector, weak domestic demand and a slowdown that is expected as a country moves up the income scale.<\/p>\n \u201cThis year is a pretty important year for structural reform,\u201d said Dan Wang, the China director for Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy. Wang said that China was taking advantage of the one-year trade truce with the US to focus on reforming its economy away from export-led growth, while the lower target also reflected a \u201chigher tolerance for unemployment\u201d.<\/p>\n Li announced a 5.5% target for urban unemployment and pledged to create more than 12m new urban jobs, targets in line with previous years. But some experts have said that China\u2019s shift to prioritising hi-tech industries may pose a risk to millions of blue-collar workers.<\/p>\n Guo Shan, a partner and chief economist at Hutong Research, a boutique advisory firm, said the modest target nevertheless demonstrated confidence as China needs to achieve only 4.3% growth over the next decade to achieve its goal of becoming a moderately developed country by 2035.<\/p>\n \u201cAfter dealing with the US but still growing by 5% in 2025, Beijing has likely become more confident in setting and delivering China\u2019s growth target,\u201d Guo said.<\/p>\n