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<\/p>\nIsrael is stepping up its military campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon, hoping to deliver a crushing defeat to the Iranian proxy army that has threatened Israel\u2019s security for decades. But the Israeli strategy is also about safeguarding the possibility of renewed diplomatic ties with Beirut, according to analysts.<\/p>\n
A new government in Lebanon is keen to free the country from the grip of Hezbollah, which it blames for repeatedly dragging the country into conflict with Israel, destabilizing its security, political system, and economy.<\/p>\n
Israel and Lebanon reached a ceasefire agreement in late 2024, after more than a year of devastating war. Since then, the Israeli military has continued to strike targets inside Lebanon on a near-daily basis. But a U.S.-led diplomatic effort \u201chas been maintained, so there has been a channel for engaging and deconflicting,\u201d says Rachel Brandenberg, a senior fellow at the Israel Policy Forum think tank in Washington.<\/p>\n
Why We Wrote This<\/p>\n
Israel is escalating its military campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon, hoping to deliver a significant blow against the Iran-backed militia. But the strategy risks derailing a potential diplomatic breakthrough with the new government in Beirut.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere\u2019s also a U.S. effort to mediate conversations between Israel and Lebanon to try to find some channel for a diplomatic agreement,\u201d Ms. Brandenberg says, adding that, just a few weeks ago, there was even talk about creating a special economic zone in southern Lebanon, which borders northern Israel.<\/p>\n
On Monday, weakened \u2013 but defiant \u2013 remnants of Hezbollah fired missiles and drones at Israel in revenge for the killing of Iran\u2019s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, giving the Israeli military the opening it was seeking to strike back with repeated waves of punishing airstrikes. The militia then began launching long-range missiles deeper into Israel.<\/p>\n
Israel\u2019s attacks against Hezbollah strongholds in southern Lebanon and in a Beirut suburb intensified on Thursday, bolstered by Israeli ground forces pushing further into southern Lebanon. The Israeli military has sent evacuation notices to Lebanese villages to avoid airstrikes. It also warned the residents of Dahieh, a southern suburb of Beirut, to \u201csave your lives and evacuate your residences immediately.\u201d<\/p>\n
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People stand next to a damaged building after an Israeli strike on Beirut’s southern suburbs, following renewed hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, March 5, 2026.<\/p>\n
In all, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have told about 1 million residents of Lebanon to evacuate their homes, according to Israel\u2019s Channel 12.<\/p>\n
But the challenge for Israel now is to conduct an effective military campaign against Hezbollah while also preserving its nascent ties with a Lebanese government that also seeks to reduce the group\u2019s influence over Lebanon.<\/p>\n
\u201cEliminating the enemy within\u201d<\/p>\n
Israel has been calling for the Lebanese government to disarm Hezbollah, but that has yet to happen. \u201cThe thinking is that Israel is now coming in and clearing what remains of Hezbollah, that this will help boost the Lebanese government\u2019s strength,\u201d says Shira Efron, an Israel analyst at RAND, a think tank based in Santa Monica, California.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe move is not seen as anti-Lebanon, but pro-Lebanon, eliminating the enemy from within,\u201d she said during a briefing this week, referring to Israel\u2019s latest military campaign. \u201cThe problem is that we know how these things start, but we don\u2019t know how they end.\u201d<\/p>\n
The strategy carries big risks. If significant numbers of Lebanese civilians are killed in Israeli airstrikes, or if the evacuations continue and daily life is disrupted, that could lead to a backlash that might destabilize the fragile government in Beirut, and entrench the same forces Israel wants to neutralize.<\/p>\n
Historically, Israel has held the Lebanese government responsible for the actions of Hezbollah, which grew into a powerful political actor, says Jacques Neriah of the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs. Mr. Neriah was also an adviser to former Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin.<\/p>\n
But Lebanon\u2019s government, formed just last year, has been working to distance itself from Hezbollah.<\/p>\n
\u201cIsrael saw the crack between the government and Hezbollah and decided to concentrate on Hezbollah and to encourage the Lebanese government to go forward in trying to impose its sovereignty, its responsibility, and its management of the situation in Lebanon,\u201d Mr. Neriah says.<\/p>\n
This latest round of Israeli attacks is focused on weakening Hezbollah further, while avoiding strikes against the Lebanese state, says Amos Yadlin, a retired major general and founder of Mind Israel, a think tank in Tel Aviv.<\/p>\n
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Eyal Zamir, the chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, salutes during a funeral at Kfar Saba military cemetery in Israel, Nov. 11, 2025. <\/p>\n
\u201cHowever, if Hezbollah crosses a red line, Lebanon could suffer as well \u2013 though that is not the objective,\u201d Mr. Yadlin says. That might constitute Hezbollah attacks on Israeli power stations or missile fire causing large numbers of civilian casualties, he adds.<\/p>\n