A multibillion-dollar contract between NASA and SpaceX is under scrutiny as the Elon Musk-helmed space company\u2019s plans to return astronauts to the surface of the Moon keep slipping.<\/p>\n
As the New York Times reports<\/a>, experts are now warning that China could beat the United States in the race back to the Moon<\/a>. After a series of successful robotic<\/a> missions<\/a> to the Earth\u2019s natural satellite, the country has made major strides<\/a> in its efforts to launch its \u201cLanyue\u201d lunar lander to the Moon before 2030.<\/p>\n While NASA\u2019s first crewed landing attempt since the 1970s, Artemis 3, is tentatively scheduled for no earlier than mid-2027<\/a>, experts warn that relying on Musk\u2019s SpaceX could set the space agency up for an ever-slipping timeline.<\/p>\n Current and former NASA officials told the NYT that the concerns were not related to president Donald Trump and Musk\u2019s deteriorated relationship<\/a>. <\/p>\n However, they point out that the mercurial CEO may have exaggerated claims about his company\u2019s super-heavy Starship spacecraft. The enormous rocket has yet to launch and land successfully without blowing up<\/a>, but NASA is still hoping to use a Human Landing Systems variant to shuttle the first astronauts down to the Moon a mere two years from now.<\/p>\n And that\u2019s not to mention that the rocket will need to demonstrate that it can refuel in space<\/a> before that can happen, something that has never been done before.<\/p>\n \u201cThis is not anything against SpaceX \u2014 they have done incredible things,\u201d former NASA human spaceflight head Douglas Loverro told the NYT. \u201cBut the further you move from known technology, the longer it takes to go ahead and get something done.\u201d<\/p>\n Musk has already blown through several of his own deadlines. Both SpaceX and NASA said in 2023 that they would attempt the first in-orbit refueling test in early 2025, which has now slipped to at least next year.<\/p>\n Earlier this month, Musk said during a podcast appearance<\/a> that \u201cunless we have some very major setbacks, SpaceX will demonstrate full reusability next year.\u201d<\/p>\n The company\u2019s latest and tenth test launch last month<\/a> was a mixed success, completing a suborbital flight and even deploying a payload in space. Starship\u2019s upper stage survived reentry largely unscathed, but took significant damage to its aft section and flaps.<\/p>\n The test followed three significant test flight failures, each of which was ended with massive explosions<\/a>.<\/p>\n Add it all up, and whether the launch platform will be ready to safely ferry astronauts from lunar orbit down to the surface a mere two years from now remains unclear at best.<\/p>\n NASA chose a complex approach for its upcoming Artemis 3 mission. A crew of four astronauts will launch inside the agency\u2019s Orion capsule atop a Space Launch System rocket, built by Boeing. The capsule will then rendezvous with SpaceX\u2019s Starship in the Moon\u2019s orbit to complete the last leg of the journey down to the surface.<\/p>\n However, most stages of the project have faced delays, including Orion and the Space Launch System. Starship remains a particular wildcard, experts warn, considering the sheer amount of unproven tech it\u2019ll rely on.<\/p>\n The company will even have to send an uncrewed Starship to the Moon in a safety demonstration first before it can land NASA astronauts there, which could end up costing SpaceX a considerable amount of time.<\/p>\n \u201cThere are thousands of engineering challenges that remain for both the ship and the booster,\u201d Musk admitted during an August SpaceX webcast<\/a>.<\/p>\n Musk\u2019s own commitment to the Moon program is also dubious. The billionaire has made it clear that he has little interest in landing astronauts on the Moon, and has called on NASA to cancel its Artemis program altogether<\/a> in favor of focusing on sending the first humans to Mars<\/a> with the help of Starship.<\/p>\n In short, time is quickly running out as China makes significant moves to send its first astronauts to the Moon. As a result, Loverro, alongside other former NASA officials, is calling for a \u201cPlan B<\/a>,\u201d such as building a lunar lander that doesn\u2019t need to be refueled.<\/p>\n And even that contingency plan could take far too long.<\/p>\n \u201cI doubt that\u2019s going to be accomplished by 2030,\u201d Daniel Dumbacher, former deputy associate adminstrator of human spaceflight at NASA, told the NYT, \u201cand that makes it likely that China will beat us to the Moon.\u201d<\/p>\n