Helium is critical for several scientific and industrial endeavors. As a cryogenic liquid, it cools superconducting magnets in spectrometers, cryostats, and imaging devices. Deep-sea divers use it in breathing mixtures because it doesn\u2019t dissolve easily into blood. And Qatar is home to one of only two plants that produce semiconductor-grade helium, which is ionized and used to etch silicon wafers.<\/p>\n
The Iran war began on Feb. 28, when the US and Israel collaborated on a wave of airstrikes that killed Iran\u2019s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, and several other civilian and military leaders. Iran has retaliated with drone and missile attacks on neighboring countries, including Qatar, the source of roughly one-third of the world\u2019s helium supply.<\/p>\n
On March 2, state-owned QatarEnergy halted production at Ras Laffan Industrial City<\/a>, where the firm extracts and liquefies up to 17 metric tons per day of helium as part of its natural gas processing and export operations. Helium often accumulates in the same geological reservoirs as natural gas.<\/p>\n QatarEnergy says the site was targeted by Iranian munitions but has not disclosed whether they penetrated the region\u2019s air defense system. The next day, the firm also halted production of urea, polymers, methanol, and other chemical products<\/a>.<\/p>\n If the conflict resolves and QatarEnergy can resume producing liquid helium and shipping it out through the Strait of Hormuz within about 2 weeks, the market will recover easily, helium consultant Phil Kornbluth said during the webinar. It takes about 3 weeks for helium to go from container-filling stations in Qatar to delivery at a customer\u2019s facility, he said. The helium is distributed by the industrial gas firms Linde, Air Liquide, and Iwatani.<\/p>\n But if the Ras Laffan plant is unable to export for much more than 2 weeks, the industrial gas firms will be forced to rework their logistics and contracts, and even relocate equipment and personnel to cope with the loss of the Qatari supply. Unwinding those changes later could take months, Kornbluth said.<\/p>\n The Donald J. Trump administration initially predicted that hostilities would take 4\u20135 weeks. But on March 4, US defense secretary Pete Hegseth said they could go on for 8 weeks or more. \u201cThe only limits we have in this is President Trump\u2019s desire to achieve specific effects on behalf of the American people,\u201d he said. \u201cWe\u2019re just getting started.\u201d<\/p>\n Even if the war drags on, Iran may not be able to sustain its disruption of trade in the region, Megan Sutcliffe, a Middle East analyst at the geopolitical risk consulting firm Sibylline, said during the Gasworld webinar. \u201cOur best assessment would indicate that Iran still has the resources to maintain some form of harassment-enforced blockade for 2 weeks, under the assumption that the government remains in place in Tehran and that decision-making retains at least a degree of centralization,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n But if QatarEnergy\u2019s natural gas or helium equipment is actually hit, the market disruption will be much worse, Kornbluth said. Depending on the extent of the damage, it could take the firm a year or more to get everything back online. \u201cWith all these missiles and drones flying around, it\u2019s hard to imagine this is going to have a clean outcome with no negative surprises,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n A major industrial gas supplier, which Kornbluth declined to name, has already begun assessing customers a helium surcharge. Force majeure declarations and supply allocations, if they happen, would indicate the helium market is headed for a full global shortage<\/a>. \u201cThe world can\u2019t compensate for the loss of a third of its helium supply,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
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