{"id":326532,"date":"2026-03-07T09:58:19","date_gmt":"2026-03-07T09:58:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/326532\/"},"modified":"2026-03-07T09:58:19","modified_gmt":"2026-03-07T09:58:19","slug":"solar-storms-ai-forecasts-and-the-future-of-safe-flight-on-earth-and-in-space","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/326532\/","title":{"rendered":"Solar storms, AI forecasts, and the future of safe flight on Earth and in space"},"content":{"rendered":"

In our latest episode of Lexicon<\/a>, we sit down with Dr. Lulu Zhao<\/a>, an assistant professor of climate and space sciences and engineering at the University of Michigan<\/a> and the lead of NASA\u2019s CLEAR Center, a Space Weather Center of Excellence.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Dr. Zhao\u2019s work focuses on one of the least understood but most impactful forces shaping modern technology. Space weather and specifically solar energetic particles affect everything from aircraft avionics to satellites to the safety of future astronauts traveling to the Moon and Mars.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Also, subscribe to IE+<\/a> for premium insights and exclusive content!<\/p>\n

Space weather and Earth<\/p>\n

Dr. Zhao began out talk by outlining the core of her research. \u201cMy research is all about space weather and space weather predictions,\u201d she explained.\u00a0<\/p>\n

As head of the CLEAR Center, she leads NASA-funded efforts to create a new framework for forecasting solar energetic particles, often shortened to SEPs.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Her goal and the goal of the center are simple to describe but extremely difficult to achieve. \u201cWe are trying to build a space weather prediction framework for the solar energetic particles,\u201d she said, adding that it is a challenge that pushes physics, computation, and AI to their limits.<\/p>\n

Did the Sun glitch Airbus\u2019 flight?<\/p>\n

We next moved to ask her whether solar activity could have caused the recent Airbus software glitches. Dr. Zhao explained that high-energy radiation effects on electronics are well-documented.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cHigh-energy particles coming from the Sun are very well known to cause bit flips in electronic systems,\u201d she noted. \u201cThis is already a very well-studied effect,\u201d she added.<\/p>\n

But, whether the Airbus event was caused by solar particles is another matter. Dr. Zhao and colleagues reviewed the data and found no major solar activity at the time.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cWe did not find any large events from the Sun,\u201d she said. Instead, she points to an ever-present cosmic ray background as the more likely culprit. \u201cIt is very possible these glitches came from cosmic rays,\u201d she added.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The event also occurred at a low latitude, where Earth\u2019s magnetic field is strongest. \u201cYou need very high energy particles to hit that region,\u201d she said, which makes any single event upset at that latitude \u201cvery unlucky.\u201d<\/p>\n

A single particle is enough<\/p>\n

Dr. Zhao went on to explain that even a single particle is enough to cause a problem. \u201cOne bit flip is enough to cause trouble if you hit a very critical bit,\u201d Dr. Zhao said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

It does not require a cascade or a cluster. One stray proton or ion traveling at a fraction of the speed of light can flip a zero to a one or vice versa. \u201cThat is enough to affect a control system,\u201d she said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

These events are rare but constant and unpredictable. \u201cWhen you see this thing happen, it has already happened. The particle came and went. You cannot trace it,\u201d she added.<\/p>\n

To help visualize these hazards, Dr. Zhao offers a crisp explanation of what SEPs actually are. \u201cThey are very fast, very energetic particles, including protons, electrons, and heavier elements like helium, oxygen, and iron,\u201d she told us.\u00a0<\/p>\n

To do this, Dr. Zhao explained, researchers use mega electron volts and giga electron volts because their mass is so small and their energies so large. A 400 megaelectron volt proton travels at a significant fraction of the speed of light.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cEven though the Sun is very far away from us, those particles travel very fast. The fastest ones reach Earth within about ten minutes,\u201d she told us.<\/p>\n

Because they are charged particles, they interact strongly with electronics. \u201cWhen a charged particle hits a microchip, it deposits a tiny amount of energy into your chip, and it could flip a zero to one or one to zero,\u201d Dr. Zhao said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Worrying events, but rare<\/p>\n

This phenomenon is known as a single-event upset, and it has been studied for decades. Importantly, altitude matters. \u201cAircraft at cruising altitude experience more particles than us on the ground because they are higher in the atmosphere,\u201d she noted.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Satellites are even more exposed. The higher the altitude, the thinner the atmosphere and the weaker the magnetic shielding overhead.<\/p>\n

The polar regions introduce another complication. Earth\u2019s magnetic field offers less protection there. \u201cThe polar region is more vulnerable,\u201d she explained.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Aircraft flying polar routes are exposed to higher radiation levels and also must contend with possible communication disruptions because \u201csolar events disturb our environment and affect wave propagation,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

Forecasting the invisible<\/p>\n

The conversation then shifted to forecasting. SEPs are among the most difficult solar phenomena to predict. Dr. Zhao lays out the challenge clearly. \u201cThe flares and coronal mass ejections are well understood, but sometimes large ones do not produce particles, and sometimes smaller ones do,\u201d she told us.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The relationship is neither linear nor consistent. SEPs also travel extremely fast and cannot be observed directly at the Sun because they are sparse compared to normal solar plasma.<\/p>\n

To overcome this, the CLEAR Center combines empirical models, physics models, and AI systems. \u201cWe are integrating machine learning and AI into our space weather forecast,\u201d Dr. Zhao explained. What\u2019s more, she added, the logic is simple.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cThe relationship between solar events and particles is so complex that we just throw the data to AI and let AI find the complex relation between input and output,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

And the data volume is enormous. \u201cThe Sun is imaged at 4K by 4K resolution, at many wavelengths, every twelve minutes, for more than fifteen years,\u201d she said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The scale is too large for any human to analyze directly. \u201cOne person would need more than a lifetime to look at it all,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

AI and computer models<\/p>\n

Alongside AI, the center is developing a next-generation physics-based model called SOFI. \u201cOur goal is to forecast not only if a solar energetic particle event will happen, but also how many particles will reach us and how long it will last,\u201d she told us.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Current forecasting often provides only minutes of warning. CLEAR hopes to extend that to a full day. \u201cTwenty-four hours is what we are aiming for,\u201d she noted. Anything beyond that approaches the impossible.<\/p>\n

We discuss the future of aviation safety in light of these capabilities. Dr. Zhao envisions a system akin to hurricane forecasting. \u201cReal-time monitoring of the Sun and the buildup of prediction models can guide industry,\u201d she said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Such information could help airlines avoid vulnerable routes or prepare for communication disruptions. However, accuracy is essential. \u201cWe do not want to disrupt normal operations with false alarms,\u201d she said. \u201cBeing ahead of time and being accurate is critical,\u201d she added.<\/p>\n

Space and beyond<\/p>\n

As we wrapped things up, we explored how SEPs affect Moon and Mars missions. As she explained, without Earth\u2019s magnetic shield, astronauts face significantly higher risks.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cThe radiation is a big concern,\u201d Dr. Zhao told us. \u201cYou want to survive the journey,\u201d she added.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cFor the very high energy particles, shielding is almost impossible,\u201d she said. That makes forecasting even more vital.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Furthermore, she told us, mission planners must choose between two hazards. During solar minimum, cosmic rays are very high and extremely difficult to shield, she added.<\/p>\n

During solar maximum, cosmic rays drop, but SEP events increase. \u201cYou get to choose which one you want to experience,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe hope that whatever we build could benefit the entire community,\u201d she added.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"In our latest episode of Lexicon, we sit down with Dr. Lulu Zhao, an assistant professor of climate…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":326533,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[989,85,46,161453,141,145],"class_list":{"0":"post-326532","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-science","8":"tag-energy-amp-environment","9":"tag-il","10":"tag-israel","11":"tag-lexicon","12":"tag-science","13":"tag-space"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/326532","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=326532"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/326532\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/326533"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=326532"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=326532"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=326532"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}