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<\/p>\nOil driving everything<\/p>\n
Oil was up to $106 per barrel this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 0.44% prior to the opening in New York. The index closed down 0.61% on Friday and is now 4% below its peak. Asia and the U.K. are largely up or flat this morning but the Stoxx Europe 600 was down 0.43% before lunch. Bitcoin is at $73K.<\/p>\n
Central bank-a-palooza: There\u2019s an unusual confluence of base interest rate decisions coming this week from the U.S. Fed, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, the Royal Bank of Australia, and the Bank of Canada.<\/p>\n
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Chart from TradingEconomics.com<\/p>\n
TOP STORIES<\/p>\n
IRAN<\/p>\n
Trump threatens NATO if it doesn\u2019t support him on Iran<\/p>\n
In a move that will win him no new friends in the West, President Trump threatened \u201cvery bad\u201d things for NATO if the alliance\u2019s countries don\u2019t send ships to help him reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Fortune\u2019s Jason Ma<\/a> noted late last night. \u201cIf there\u2019s no response or if it\u2019s a negative response I think it will be very bad for the future of NATO,\u201d Trump said. Context: Trump previously threatened to invade Greenland and Canada, both NATO members. He also implied he might retract support for Ukraine. And he lifted sanctions on Russian oil even though that country is bombing Europe\u2019s Eastern flank.<\/p>\n Trump\u2019s plea underlines the most important dynamic in the war against Iran right now: The fact that Iran controls the strait<\/a> but has not blocked it. Iran allowed a tanker to sail to China, for instance.<\/a> U.S.-Israeli forces haven\u2019t been able to gain access for Western-allied vessels. \u201cIt is only closed to the tankers and ships belonging to our enemies, to those who are attacking us and their allies,\u201d Iran\u2019s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Saturday<\/a>.<\/p>\n Iran has options, according to MIT political science professor Caitlin Talmadge: mines. \u201cHistorically, mine clearance has been slow and it is almost impossible to do under fire,\u201d she wrote in Foreign Affairs<\/a>. \u201cIn short, if Iran effectively mines the strait, all U.S. response options are suboptimal,\u201d Talmadge warned. \u201cThe United States should therefore focus aggressively on preventing Iranian mine-laying in the first place and finding an off-ramp from the larger war. If it does not, Washington should expect that ongoing harassment of traffic in the strait will be but one of a number of responses that Iran has long prepared and will now deploy.\u201d<\/p>\n Live coverage of today\u2019s attacks from the BBC here<\/a>.<\/p>\n It\u2019s the media\u2019s fault: With his poll numbers in decline and MAGA supporters frustrated by a war he promised not to start, Trump is increasingly complaining<\/a> about media coverage of the conflict. On Saturday, he said: \u201cMedia actually want us to lose the War.\u201d His FCC chief threatened to cancel network broadcast licenses<\/a> unless they \u201ccorrect course.\u201d<\/p>\n Wall Street sees a long war<\/p>\n Six more weeks? As of Saturday, the Pentagon \u201cbelieved that it would take four to six weeks to complete this mission and that we\u2019re ahead of schedule,\u201d Kevin Hassett said on CBS\u2019 Face the Nation<\/a>. \u201cWe expect that the global economy is going to have a big positive shock as soon as this is over.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cProtracted war cannot be ruled out\u201d: But investment bank analysts are increasingly pessimistic that Trump will declare victory and leave the Gulf anytime soon. Bank of America\u2019s Antonio Gabriel sent a terse note this morning: \u201cWhile a quick resolution to the conflict is certainly a possibility, we view the conflict extending into 2Q as an equally likely outcome, and a more protracted war cannot be ruled out. However, markets seem to be pricing a largely transitory shock\u2026In our view, the more disruptive scenarios for global growth are underpriced.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n $100 oil will \u201cbreak parts of the world economy\u201d. Oxford Economics\u2019 Michael Pearce told clients that the impact of oil going to $100 per barrel is \u201ca worst-case scenario that begins to break parts of the world economy. The impact to the U.S. economy is still mostly via higher gasoline prices, which boost inflation and weigh on households\u2019 real disposable incomes and consumer spending. There would be some offset from higher oil production and investment, but there\u2019s a lag effect, and in the near term, the economy would take a hit,\u201d with GDP growth being cut by the better part of a percentage point:<\/p>\n HOLLYWOOD<\/p>\n Who won what at the Oscars<\/p>\n One Battle After Another was the big winner with six awards last night, including best picture and best director. Sinners got four (Michael B. Jordan got best actor), and Frankenstein took three. Full coverage from The Hollywood Reporter here.<\/a><\/p>\n CHART OF THE DAY<\/p>\n Record funding for physical AI robots<\/p>\n Investment in companies looking to develop physical, artificially intelligent robots made 32 equity deals with developers in 2025 compared to just three in 2021, according to Bank of America\u2019s Vanessa Cook and Lynelle Huskey. Funding hit a record high in 2025 at $41 billion.\u00a0<\/p>\n NUMBER OF THE DAY<\/p>\n 60%<\/p>\n The rise in the price of urea\u2014the world\u2019s most widely used nitrogen fertilizer\u2014since the war began, per Bruce Kasman and the team at J.P. Morgan.<\/p>\n QUICK HITS<\/p>\n THE FRONT PAGES TODAY<\/p>\n WATCH: Anduril\u2019s Palmer Luckey talks AI, nukes and Iran on \u201cThe Axios Show\u201d<\/a> \u2013 Axios<\/p>\n Retail investors pull billions from private capital\u2019s credit gold mine<\/a> \u2013 FT<\/p>\n OpenAI\u2019s Bid to Allow X-Rated Talk Is Freaking Out Its Own Advisers<\/a> \u2013 WSJ<\/p>\n How Trump\u2019s Homeland Security Pick, a Prolific Investor, Got a Lot Wealthier in Congress<\/a> \u2013 NYT<\/p>\n The best-dressed celebrities at the Oscars 2026: Teyana Taylor, Jessie Buckley, Rose Byrne and more<\/a> \u2013 NY Post<\/p>\n ONE MORE THING<\/p>\n The crypto nerds have come for the oil market<\/p>\n Oil markets are going crazy and one crypto ecosystem has become a go-to destination for speculating on where prices are going next: A blockchain called Hyperliquid saw daily trading volume for a popular oil contract reach a high of nearly $1.7 billion, which is nearly 250 times more volume than the contract saw right before the U.S. and Israel started bombing Iran in late February. Fortune\u2019s Ben Weiss reports<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Oil driving everything Oil was up to $106 per barrel this morning. 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