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An image posted by the IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News shows exercises by Iran\u2019s special crowd-control units, with a mounted heavy machine gun used in the suppression of protests in the foreground.<\/p>\nAn image posted by the IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News shows exercises by Iran\u2019s special crowd-control units, with a mounted heavy machine gun used in the suppression of protests in the foreground.<\/p>\n
From March 14 to 16, US and Israeli operations continued targeting key elements of the Islamic Republic\u2019s military capabilities, including missile infrastructure, naval command sites, and facilities tied to Iran\u2019s military space program.<\/p>\n
As the conflict intensifies, messaging from Israeli leaders increasingly seeks to reach Iranian citizens directly, as sources point to emerging fractures inside the regime\u2019s political and security establishment. Within Iran, authorities appear to be preparing for possible unrest through expanded checkpoints, arrests, and heightened surveillance, even as economic disruptions and banking outages add further pressure ahead of the Nowruz holiday.<\/p>\n
Military overview<\/p>\n
US Central Command (CENTCOM) released a video<\/a> update on March 16, highlighting American strikes against the regime\u2019s missile, drone, and naval threats. It also noted that the US has also struck the manufacturing capabilities of the Islamic Republic. CENTCOM noted that Iranian forces have retaliated by firing missiles and drones at civilian areas in the region hundreds of times, including more than 300 incidents involving cluster munitions.<\/p>\n IDF Persian said<\/a> on March 16 that Israeli forces carried out a precision strike in eastern Tehran targeting the main headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy, describing the force as responsible for disrupting international shipping and transferring weapons and funding to militant groups by sea. The statement said that the attack aimed to damage the unit\u2019s command infrastructure and disrupt its ability to plan and coordinate operations linked to attacks against Israel and threats to maritime trade routes.<\/p>\n Another post<\/a> said that an Israeli strike in central Tehran destroyed a facility linked to Iran\u2019s military space program that was allegedly used to develop capabilities for targeting satellites. The site was described as supporting projects tied to offensive space technologies, including work associated with the IRGC\u2019s \u201cChamran-1\u201d satellite launched in September 2024, which the post said could threaten Israel\u2019s and other countries\u2019 space assets.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, Jerusalem\u2019s direct messaging to Iranians persists. In a video address<\/a> to the Iranian people on March 16, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu congratulated Iranians on the upcoming Persian New Year, Nowruz, which begins on March 20, and delivered a message of hope. He said the holiday carries a \u201cspecial meaning\u201d this year, adding that \u201clight will triumph over darkness.\u201d<\/p>\n The latest on the regime\u2019s stability<\/p>\n Citing an anonymous senior Israeli official, The Times of Israel reported<\/a> on March 15 that there are \u201csigns of cracks\u201d within the Islamic Republic, adding that Jerusalem is facilitating the conditions to empower the Iranian people to overthrow the regime. \u201cIt may take time, but this is not an endless war, and we are far ahead of schedule,\u201d the official remarked.<\/p>\n In line with these claims, the IRGC and the administration of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian are reportedly<\/a> at odds over Iran\u2019s postwar outlook, according to IranWire. In a tense meeting, Pezeshkian supposedly warned that the government would face severe economic strain and renewed public dissatisfaction once the fighting subsides, urging the Guards to help prepare for recovery. An IRGC representative reportedly dismissed the concern, arguing that the war has strengthened public unity and a continued emergency environment would deter unrest. If the report is accurate, the exchange would indicate a sharp divide between the government\u2019s economic worries and the Guards\u2019 hardline wartime posture.<\/p>\n Unconfirmed reports<\/a> also allege rising desertions within the IRGC and the Iranian police. The defections are attributed to breakdowns in communication with command centers in Tehran, frustration that field personnel are exposed while senior commanders remain sheltered, and worsening economic pressure, as cash shortages leave some security members struggling to cover basic expenses.<\/p>\n The latest on internal repression: the regime braces for unrest<\/p>\n Reports from inside Iran indicate<\/a> a sharp increase in Basij and other security forces establishing checkpoints and armed plainclothes patrols across multiple Iranian cities as part of a broader effort to control urban spaces and identify dissent. Incidents have been reported in Tehran, Karaj, Tabriz, Isfahan, Ahvaz, Shiraz, Rasht, Khorramabad, Zahedan, and cities across Kurdistan and East and West Azerbaijan provinces. At these checkpoints, personnel have reportedly detained and interrogated civilians, searched mobile phones, confiscated devices, and, in some instances, opened judicial cases based on information found on personal phones.<\/p>\n Iran International reported<\/a> on March 16 that several security checkpoints across Tehran were allegedly hit in US-Israeli airstrikes, including locations around Enghelab Square near South Kargar, the Molavi\u2013Sahebjam district, Azadi Square, Hejazi Highway, Mortezagerd, and the Azadegan Highway. The outlet said that some of the positions had been placed under major road structures or inside covered urban areas, a tactic authorities reportedly adopted to reduce exposure to aerial strikes as attacks increasingly target security patrols and checkpoints across the capital.<\/p>\n On March 16, the Israeli Mossad\u2019s Persian-language account posted<\/a>, \u201cYour final battle will begin soon. We are with you in the sky on earth and in our hearts.\u201d<\/p>\n That same day, the IRGC-affiliated Fars News warned<\/a> that foreign intelligence services are allegedly planning to trigger a new phase of unrest inside Iran. It claimed Israeli and US intelligence are seeking to stage killings and activate networks to spark instability.<\/p>\n Regime media<\/a> reported<\/a> that armed assailants opened fire on a police patrol in Taftan county on March 16, killing five police personnel and one civilian. Taftan is located in Sistan and Baluchistan province in southeastern Iran, a region where Baluch separatist groups<\/a> have carried out repeated attacks against Iranian security forces over the past decade.<\/p>\n A day prior, Iran\u2019s national police chief Ahmadreza Radan claimed<\/a> that authorities arrested 500 people accused of sending information to \u201cthe enemy and anti-Iranian media,\u201d describing the detainees as spies. Radan claimed roughly half of the cases involved serious offenses, alleging that the suspects provided targeting information, maintained contact with opposition groups, and sought to disrupt public order, though he offered no evidence and did not specify when the arrests occurred.<\/p>\n The prosecutor of West Azerbaijan province said<\/a> on March 15 that authorities arrested 20 individuals in Urmia accused of being \u201cagents linked to the Zionist regime.\u201d The statement added that IRGC Intelligence Organization forces in West Azerbaijan, working with the Basij and using cyber-monitoring and intelligence operations, identified and dismantled several alleged Israel-linked networks accused of sending information about military, police, and security facilities. Although authorities provided few details about the case, West Azerbaijan province, similar to neighboring Kurdistan province, has long been a hotspot of Kurdish separatist activity.<\/p>\n A video<\/a> sent to Iran International on March 15 shows a truck carrying a DShK heavy machine gun stationed in the Shiraz-Sepidan police station, equipment the regime has previously used to kill unarmed protestors.<\/p>\n