{"id":346896,"date":"2026-03-19T07:11:12","date_gmt":"2026-03-19T07:11:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/346896\/"},"modified":"2026-03-19T07:11:12","modified_gmt":"2026-03-19T07:11:12","slug":"how-close-is-australia-to-a-recession-explained","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/346896\/","title":{"rendered":"How close is Australia to a recession, explained"},"content":{"rendered":"

The latest employment figures<\/a> have now stoked fresh fears that Australia’s economy could be shocked into a recession for the second time in six years.\"IsIs Australia headed for a recession? (Graphic: Tara Blancato)<\/p>\n

The RBA flagged that a domestic recession could be a necessary evil to drive inflation down.<\/p>\n

“We don’t want to have a recession, but if it’s hard to get inflation down, then we’re going to have to deal with that, possibly,” RBA governor Michele Bullock said.<\/p>\n

Treasurer Jim Chalmers, however, flatly denied this was a possibility.<\/p>\n

“No, that’s not something that we’re anticipating or forecasting or expecting,” Chalmers told ABC’s 730 program.\ufeff<\/p>\n

Inflation remains the biggest threat to the Australian economy and this has been compounded by a deflating job market.<\/p>\n

Fresh job figures\ufeff revealed the unemployment rate rose to 4.3 per cent in February after 35,000 people left the workforce.<\/p>\n

Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data also found the number of hours worked fell 0.2 per cent, with more workers on part-time hours rather than full-time.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, job advertisements took a tumble in the same period.<\/p>\n

Ads decreased by 0.5 per cent month-on-month in February and are down 2.6 per cent year-on-year, according to the latest employment report from Seek.<\/p>\n

Applications also dropped by 0.6 per cent as workers stay put in an uncertain job market.<\/p>\n

\"PedestriansAustralians are battling cash rate hikes, soaring oil prices and a rise in unemployment. (Louie Douvis\/AFR)Seek’s Senior Economist Dr Blair Chapman told Nine.com.au<\/a> that the job market is generally a safe indicator of where the economy is headed.<\/p>\n

“A sharp decline in jobs ads can be a bit of a red flag that demand is going to slow across the economy,” he said.<\/p>\n

“Job ads are a forward-looking indicator of employer intent \u2013 when businesses pull back on hiring, it signals reduced confidence in future demand and activity.<\/p>\n

“The current decline we’re seeing is steady but gradual, not a sharp decline that should trigger worry.”<\/p>\n

Chapman tempered fears that a recession is fast approaching despite the declining job figures.<\/p>\n

“Combined, these signals point to weaker demand and a labour market under increasing pressure, though the current data suggests a gradual slowdown rather than a sharp contraction,” he added.<\/p>\n

\"\"\/RBA governor Michele Bullock has flagged that a recession could be a necessary evil. (Louise Kennerley)<\/p>\n

Australia broke a 30-year dry spell after it entered a technical recession during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n

Before that, Australia suffered a recession from 1990 to 1991\ufeff when GDP fell by 1.7 per cent and the unemployment rate rose to 10.8 per cent.<\/p>\n

A recession is when a\ufeff prolonged period of weak or negative growth in gross domestic product (GDP), which is the monetary value of all goods and services, is accompanied by a rise in unemployment, according to the RBA.<\/p>\n

Essentially, if GDP goes down and unemployment goes up it can equal a recession.\ufeff<\/p>\n

A “technical recession” \u2013 which may not be accompanied by a jump in unemployment \u2013 is traditionally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth in GDP.<\/p>\n

Several other economic indicators are also weak during a recession, including household spending, business investment and the number of businesses that close down.<\/p>\n

NEVER MISS A STORY: Get your breaking news and exclusive stories first by following us across all platforms.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The latest employment figures have now stoked fresh fears that Australia’s economy could be shocked into a recession…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":346897,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[114,184,85,46],"class_list":["post-346896","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-il","tag-israel"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/346896","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=346896"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/346896\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/346897"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=346896"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=346896"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=346896"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}