Elon Musk\u2019s SpaceX put more than 10,000 active Starlink satellites into orbit this week with back-to-back Falcon 9 launches.<\/p>\n
The milestone matters because Starlink is the revenue engine behind what may be the largest IPO in history, and prediction market traders are acting like it\u2019s nearly a done deal.<\/p>\n
Polymarket gives SpaceX an 87% chance of being the biggest IPO by market cap in 2026, with $1.2 million in total volume. Anthropic, OpenAI and Discord are some of the other companies with rumoured 2026 IPO\u2019s.<\/p>\n
A separate timing contract has June 30 at 60%, making a summer debut for SpaceX the base case.<\/p>\n
Goldman Sachs leads the underwriter race at 57%, a reversal from earlier this year when Morgan Stanley was the frontrunner.<\/p>\n
Don’t Miss:<\/p>\n
Both have long Musk ties; they co-underwrote Tesla\u2019s 2010 IPO, and Morgan Stanley led financing for the 2022 Twitter acquisition.<\/p>\n
Polymarket\u2019s closing market cap contract prices a 92% chance SpaceX finishes its first trading day above $1 trillion. A separate higher-strike contract puts the odds of clearing $2 trillion at 45%.<\/p>\n
Reuters reported the company is seeking a valuation around $1.75 trillion and may raise $50 billion. For context, Saudi Aramco\u2019s 2019 debut at $1.7 trillion is the current record.<\/p>\n
Reuters also reported SpaceX booked roughly $8 billion in profit on $15 billion to $16 billion in revenue last year, mostly from Starlink. Analysts at Payload Space estimate revenue could reach $24 billion in 2026.<\/p>\n