When wildfires scorch a landscape, the flames are just the beginning. NASA is helping communities across the nation foresee and prepare for what can follow: mudslides, flash flooding, and contaminated surface water supplies.<\/p>\n
A new online tool called HydroFlame<\/a>, built with support from NASA\u2019s Earth Science Division, relies on satellite data, hydrologic modeling, and artificial intelligence to predict how wildfires could affect water resources, from tap water to the rivers and streams where people fish. The project is being developed with the University of Texas at Arlington, Purdue University, the U.S. Geological Survey, and other partners.<\/p>\n For now, the tool includes data only for Montana\u2019s Clark Fork Basin, where it is being piloted. But new applications are underway in California and Utah. Researchers will soon begin fieldwork in Los Angeles County to collect on-the-ground data to refine HydroFlame\u2019s predictive approach \u2014 an important step toward expanding it beyond the pilot site.<\/p>\n \u201cAs wildfires intensify across the country, so do their ripple effects on regional water resources,\u201d said Erin Urquhart, program manager for NASA\u2019s water resources program at NASA Headquarters in Washington. \u201cHydroFlame could help communities in the U.S. see what\u2019s coming and plan for it, before a fire becomes a water crisis.\u201d<\/p>\n That kind of foresight is exactly what local officials are looking for.<\/p>\n \u201cFor someone managing a trout fishery or drinking water supply, knowing when a stream might be overwhelmed with debris after a fire can mean the difference between preparedness and a crisis,\u201d said Morgan Valliant, who is part of the project\u2019s advisory group and the associate director of ecosystem services for Missoula Parks and Recreation in Montana. \u201cThis tool could let us move from reacting to planning.\u201d<\/p>\n In the wake of a wildfire, charred hillsides are often unstable. With the protective blanket of plants burned away, rain that once soaked gently into the soil can race downhill, sending ash, debris, and sediment into rivers and reservoirs. That runoff can trigger flash floods and contaminate drinking water.<\/p>\n Severe wildfires can also bake soil into a water-repelling crust. With less absorption, the same slopes can swing from drought to destructive floods, and those runoff risks can persist for decades.<\/p>\n HydroFlame, developed by a team led by Adnan Rajib at the University of Texas at Arlington, is built to anticipate those extremes. <\/p>\n “NASA is constantly pushing the boundaries when it comes to sensing and predicting fire,” Rajib said. “But there is still a huge gap when it comes to translating that fire information in terms of water. That\u2019s where HydroFlame comes in.”\u00a0<\/p>\n The tool will include three components:<\/p>\n a historical viewer that maps past fire impacts on streamflow and sediment<\/p>\n a \u201cwhat-if\u201d scenario builder to simulate future fires<\/p>\n a predictive tool that generates weekly forecasts using near-real-time satellite data as initial conditions<\/p>\n When a wildfire is identified, the tool will identify how severely areas are burned across watersheds and track shifts in vegetation, soil wetness, and evapotranspiration, or the release of water from the land and plants to the atmosphere. HydroFlame uses data from satellite missions and instruments including MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), Landsat, and SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive).<\/p>\n Those observations, combined with stream records from gauged rivers, feed into simulations of possible fire-driven changes in water flow and quality. A machine-learning component will fill in where gauges are absent, making it possible to predict impacts up to two weeks in advance.<\/p>\n The historical viewer, which is publicly accessible, lets users explore how past fires altered streamflow and sediment levels across the basin. The other components are still in development: The prototype of the \u201cwhat-if\u201d scenario builder tool is expected to launch in December 2025, with the full version planned for May 2026.<\/p>\n HydroFlame’s ability to capture compounding factors \u2014 drought before a fire, flooding afterward \u2014 and simulate their cascading effects on water systems is what makes it different from other tools, Rajib said. \u201cMany traditional models treat each fire as a one-off,\u201d he said. \u201cHydroFlame looks at the bigger picture.\u201d<\/p>\n Just as important, the tool is built for people who aren\u2019t experts in satellite data.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s a practical starting point for scenario planning,\u201d said Kelly Luis, associate program manager for NASA\u2019s water resources program and an aquatic ecosystem scientist at NASA\u2019s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California. The tool\u2019s \u201cwhat-if\u201d function, she explained, will let water managers, city planners, and other officials apply their local knowledge. For example, they might zero in on the rivers and streams most important to a city\u2019s water supply. \u201cThat kind of insight is essential for building solutions that are both scientifically grounded and locally relevant.\u201d<\/p>\n For watershed organizations or local and state agencies with limited staff and resources, that ease of use is crucial \u2014 saving time and effort while helping keep costs down.<\/p>\n \u201cThese groups need holistic ways to understand potential impacts of fires to their rivers and streams and plan, without always having to bring in someone from the outside,\u201d said Amy Seaman, the executive director of the Montana Watershed Coordination Council. Seaman works with community watershed organizations across Montana and is also part of the project\u2019s advisory group.<\/p>\n This effort is part of a broader NASA focus on understanding how fire reshapes water systems<\/a> and what that means for American communities.<\/p>\n Rajib\u2019s team put HydroFlame\u2019s predictive capabilities to the test during <\/a>the January 2025 wildfires in Los Angeles<\/a>. As fires burned through the region, researchers ran real-time model simulations using NASA satellite data, tracking changes in vegetation, soil moisture, and burn severity almost as they happened. By the end of the month, the team had generated forecasts for mud and debris flows expected in February.<\/p>\n Those predictions turned out to be accurate. In early February, mudflow events struck the areas of Altadena and Sierra Madre in Los Angeles County, following the Eaton Fire. HydroFlame had been run specifically for that fire and flagged both neighborhoods as at risk, Rajib said.<\/p>\n \u201cIt wasn\u2019t a formal, data-verified result because we didn\u2019t have ground sensors in place,\u201d Rajib said. \u201cBut it was a practical validation. The timing and severity of what we modeled lined up with what occurred.\u201d<\/p>\n Rajib\u2019s team is now working with NASA JPL, the University of California, Merced and Los Angeles County to formally test and expand the tool in the Los Angeles area. The team plans to begin collecting on-the-ground data no earlier than Friday, Sept. 26. That work will include installing stream sensors to measure sediment levels in the county\u2019s streams during California\u2019s rainy season and integrating those data into the tool \u2014 a step toward building an early-warning system.<\/p>\n