Saudi Arabia has urged the US to ramp up attacks on Iran, a Saudi intelligence source has confirmed, while it is weighing a decision on whether to join the fight directly.<\/p>\n
The Saudi source confirmed reporting in the New York Times<\/a> that said the kingdom\u2019s de facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has urged Donald Trump not to cut short his war against Iran, and that the US-Israeli campaign represented a \u201chistoric opportunity\u201d to remake the Middle East.<\/p>\n The intelligence source said Riyadh was not just calling for the military campaign to be continued, but to be intensified. Trump appeared to confirm the report about the crown prince\u2019s role, telling journalists on Tuesday: \u201cYeah, he\u2019s a warrior. He\u2019s fighting with us.\u201d<\/p>\n There are no reports of active Saudi military involvement in the nearly four-week-old war so far, but a Saudi political analyst said the kingdom would be likely to take that step if peace efforts led by Pakistan failed.<\/p>\n \u201cWhat matters now is Iran\u2019s decision,\u201d Mohammed Alhamed, a Saudi geopolitical analyst, said. \u201cIf Iran<\/a> engages seriously, there is still a path to contain escalation. If it rejects the conditions and continues its attacks, the threshold for Saudi action will be crossed.\u201d<\/p>\n Alhamed added that Saudi Arabia \u201cis not reacting impulsively\u201d. \u201cIt is calibrating its response and preparing for a scenario where escalation, if it happens, will be deliberate and decisive,\u201d he said, adding that Riyadh \u201chas not been pushing for war.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cIt has been trying to avoid being drawn into it, while keeping all options on the table,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Satellite image shows the oil infrastructure at Saudi Arabia\u2019s western Red Sea port of Yanbu, which was targeted by Iran last week. Photograph: 2026 Planet Labs PBC\/AFP\/Getty Images<\/p>\n Saudi Arabia has come under attack from Iranian drones, as part of Tehran\u2019s response to the US-Israeli attack on 28 February. One drone strike a week ago hit an oil refinery in Yanbu on Saudi Red Sea coast.<\/p>\n Saudi Arabia\u2019s ability to transport its oil exports by pipeline to the Red Sea has meant it is not as vulnerable as its neighbours to Iran\u2019s tactic of imposing a near-total blockade on oil tanker shipments leaving the Gulf through the strait of Hormuz. The attack on Yanbu signalled an Iranian warning that it could also threaten that economic lifeline.<\/p>\n That threat would be multiplied if Iran\u2019s allies in Yemen, the Houthi movement, joined the war with its own missile arsenal.<\/p>\n \u201cI believe that Saudi Arabia still maintains cautious neutrality in the Iran-Israel-US war,\u201d Hesham Alghannam, a Saudi defence expert told Agence France-Presse. But he added: \u201cIf the Houthis strike Saudi assets, Riyadh may shift toward defensive coalition support or limited retaliation.\u201d<\/p>\n map<\/a><\/p>\n Saudi Arabia and Iran, claiming leadership roles of the Sunni and Shia Islamic worlds respectively, have long been regional rivals. According to a leaked US state department cable, the crown prince\u2019s paternal uncle King Abdullah urged the US military in 2008<\/a> to \u201ccut off the head of the snake\u201d, a reference to the theocratic regime in Tehran.<\/p>\n Khalid Aljabri, a Saudi exile commentator, said in recent years the kingdom\u2019s preference had been a negotiated solution to the standoff over Iran\u2019s nuclear and missile programmes. However, Trump and the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, launched the joint attack in the midst of talks focused on nuclear limits<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cIn this scenario, when the war occurs anyway and escalation is happening anyway, a partially degraded Iran, a wounded lion, would be more unpredictable and more dangerous. The policy was don\u2019t start the war, but if you start it, finish the job,\u201d said Aljabri, a US-based cardiologist who is the son of Saad Al Jabri, a former Saudi security chief who served as intelligence liaison with Washington until he fell out of favour with Prince Mohammed in 2015.<\/p>\n Donald Trump and Mohammed bin Salman at the White House in November. Photograph: Bloomberg\/Getty Images<\/p>\n The crown prince solidified his hold on power by cultivating a close relationship with Trump, but will now have to rethink Saudi reliance on the US for its security, observers have argued.<\/p>\n \u201cMBS [Mohammed bin Salman] has lost the bet on all his investments over the last several years,\u201d Ellie Geranmayeh, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations said. \u201cHe financially invested in Trump and Trump\u2019s family and his corporation and his White House, but at the end of the day the views of the Saudis and of the whole Gulf have been sidelined by the wishes of Benjamin Netanyahu.\u201d<\/p>\n Prince Mohammed had begun to recalibrate his position after a missile attack on a Saudi oil facility<\/a> in 2019, which Riyadh blamed on Iran. The US, under the first Trump presidency, offered verbal support but did not carry out the reprisals the Saudis were demanding.<\/p>\n