{"id":369883,"date":"2026-04-01T19:21:15","date_gmt":"2026-04-01T19:21:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/369883\/"},"modified":"2026-04-01T19:21:15","modified_gmt":"2026-04-01T19:21:15","slug":"moodys-recession-model-is-just-1-percentage-point-away-from-a-signal-that-has-never-been-wrong","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/369883\/","title":{"rendered":"Moody’s Recession Model Is Just 1 Percentage Point Away From a Signal That Has Never Been Wrong."},"content":{"rendered":"

After sliding nearly 6% so far this year, the S&P 500 (^GSPC<\/a> +0.74%) could be in for more trouble. Moody’s AI-driven recession model just put the odds of a U.S. downturn at 49%. The model was trained on 80 years of backtested data, and every time the odds have tipped above 50%, a recession hit<\/a> within 12 months.<\/p>\n

The Iran War could push Moody’s AI recession model over the edge<\/p>\n

Here’s what makes this especially concerning for investors: That 49% figure is based on February data, meaning it doesn’t account for the U.S.-Iran War — a war that has knocked out roughly 20% of global crude oil production, pushing oil prices well above $100 a barrel. <\/p>\n

\"An<\/p>\n

Image source: Getty Images.<\/p>\n

The 49% reflects an already soft economy. The U.S. shed 92,000 jobs last month, well below the 59,000 gain economists expected. Gross domestic product (GDP) was revised down from 1.4% to 0.7%, while inflation is still running above the Federal Reserve’s target. <\/p>\n

Now, with a conflict-driven oil shock, the odds are very good that Moody’s model will soon tip above the 50% threshold. After all, every U.S. recession since World War II, aside from the one due to COVID-19, was preceded by a spike in oil prices.<\/p>\n

The bottom line<\/p>\n

Not everyone agrees, of course. Analysts at Goldman Sachs see only a 30% chance of recession, and plenty of analysts on Wall Street are still bullish. <\/p>\n

I think they are overly optimistic. I think there is a very good chance of a recession within the next year. If that happens, markets will suffer. <\/a><\/p>\n

But that doesn’t mean I’m advocating panic selling — that’s never a good idea. While playing things more conservatively right now is the way to go in my opinion, staying invested has always been the winning formula.<\/p>\n

Johnny Rice<\/a> has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Goldman Sachs Group and Moody’s. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"After sliding nearly 6% so far this year, the S&P 500 (^GSPC +0.74%) could be in for more…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":369884,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[114,184,85,46],"class_list":{"0":"post-369883","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-economy","10":"tag-il","11":"tag-israel"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/369883","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=369883"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/369883\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/369884"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=369883"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=369883"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=369883"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}