{"id":370009,"date":"2026-04-01T21:11:11","date_gmt":"2026-04-01T21:11:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/370009\/"},"modified":"2026-04-01T21:11:11","modified_gmt":"2026-04-01T21:11:11","slug":"javier-mileis-inflation-miracle-in-argentina-is-a-warning-to-the-world-not-a-blueprint","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/370009\/","title":{"rendered":"Javier Milei\u2019s inflation \u2018miracle\u2019 in Argentina is a warning to the world, not a blueprint"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>On paper, the numbers look astonishing. The annual rate of inflation in Argentina has plummeted from 211% in 2023 to 31.5% by the end of 2025.<\/p>\n<p>President <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/topics\/javier-milei-148648\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Javier Milei<\/a> is taking plenty of credit for the drop. And he spent some time on Wall Street last month, pitching his \u201cchainsaw\u201d approach to public spending as a triumph against inflation.<\/p>\n<p>But as a political economist who has tracked the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.routledge.com\/Populism-and-Modern-Monetary-Theory-Exploring-the-Rise-of-Milei-in-Argentina\/Cinar\/p\/book\/9781032961033\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">cyclical history of economic crisis in Argentina<\/a>, I see a much grimmer story unfolding. <\/p>\n<p>For the drop in inflation is certainly not a victory for Argentine productivity. It\u2019s a byproduct of a deliberate and engineered collapse in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.batimes.com.ar\/news\/economy\/purchasing-power-loss-in-argentina-slumps-to-levels-not-seen-since-2001-crisis.phtml\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">people\u2019s wages<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p>Milei hasn\u2019t fixed the engine of Argentina\u2019s economy, he has simply turned it off. Since he took office in 2023, the country\u2019s manufacturing output has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ceicdata.com\/en\/argentina\/industrial-capacity-utilization-rate-2004100\/industrial-capacity-utilization-rate\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">dropped dramatically<\/a>, with over 2,000 businesses shutting down and 73,000 <a href=\"https:\/\/buenosairesherald.com\/economics\/argentinas-industry-records-the-second-worst-decline-worldwide-in-two-years\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">jobs lost<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>In the automotive sector, factories are operating at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ceicdata.com\/en\/argentina\/industrial-capacity-utilization-rate-2004100\/industrial-capacity-utilization-rate-motor-vehicles\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">just 24% of capacity<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p>These aren\u2019t just dry statistics. Real wages have been crushed so hard that demand for Argentine goods has evaporated. If a manufacturer is only using a third of its machinery because nobody can afford their goods, they lose their ability to put up prices, and inflation rates stop rising.<\/p>\n<p>By drastically reducing demand, Milei has not solved the inflation puzzle. He has simply removed some of the pieces, by making the population too poor to participate in the Argentine economy.<\/p>\n<p>On top of this, the <a href=\"https:\/\/english.elpais.com\/international\/2026-02-23\/milei-pushes-through-a-labor-reform-that-argentina-resisted-under-previous-rightwing-governments.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">fear of mass unemployment<\/a> means workers have no choice but to accept an ever smaller share of the nation\u2019s economic pie. Again, low wages serve to prevent the upward spiral of prices. <\/p>\n<p>So the supposed victory over inflation is actually the institutionalisation of lower wages and a lower standard of living for most people.<\/p>\n<p>A recently passed <a href=\"https:\/\/buenosairesherald.com\/politics\/argentine-labor-reform-101-what-happens-now-and-all-you-need-to-know\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">law<\/a> (officially named \u201clabour modernisation\u201d) reinforces this new reality. It has effectively increased many workers\u2019 hours and reduced their protections, making labour both cheaper and more disposable. <\/p>\n<p>The new legislation has been <a href=\"https:\/\/ctaa.org.ar\/oit-las-centrales-sindicales-argentinas-recibieron-un-categorico-apoyo-ante-los-ataques-de-milei\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">criticised<\/a> as a return to working practices of the 19th century. Far from modernising work, it is about normalising a lower wage share of GDP and ensuring that the shrinking slice of the national income for the Argentine worker isn\u2019t just a temporary emergency, but a permanent feature of the model.<\/p>\n<p>And while the government highlights <a href=\"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/countries\/arg\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">4% GDP growth forecasts for 2026<\/a>, that growth is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.trade.gov\/market-intelligence\/argentina-energy-mining-sectors?\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">focused in sectors<\/a> like agriculture, mining and lithium, which create very few jobs. For the average urban worker the economy hasn\u2019t recovered \u2013 it has simply bottomed out at a new, lower standard of living. <\/p>\n<p>Wages down, inflation down<\/p>\n<p>That doesn\u2019t mean that the drop in inflation counts for nothing. There has been a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/americas\/argentina-inflation-is-forecast-have-ended-2025-more-than-seven-year-low-2026-01-12\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">genuine sense of relief<\/a> after the triple-digit chaos of 2023. <\/p>\n<p>The simple ability to shop at a supermarket without the price of goods <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/americas\/argentina-inflation-cools-may-lowest-over-five-years-2025-06-12\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">changing dramatically in days<\/a> will mark a deep psychological shift for many Argentinians.<\/p>\n<p>But that shift is not based on solid ground. Inflation hasn\u2019t been tamed by a more efficient economy \u2013 it has been starved into submission. <\/p>\n<p>Yet remarkably, Milei\u2019s \u201cmiracle\u201d is already being packaged for export. From the radical fiscal cuts proposed by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/03\/03\/opinion\/trump-milei-musk-argentina.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Trump in the US<\/a> to the nationalist platforms of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.batimes.com.ar\/news\/argentina\/milei-backs-orbans-anti-immigration-stance-during-visit-to-hungary.phtml\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Orb\u00e1n in Hungary<\/a> and the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.euractiv.com\/news\/argentinas-milei-to-support-spanish-vox-leader-ahead-of-eu-elections\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Vox party in Spain<\/a>, Milei and his model are being <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ifo.de\/en\/cesifo\/publications\/2025\/working-paper\/argentina-javier-mileis-reform-agenda-theoretical-and-empirical\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">touted as a blueprint<\/a> for other economies struggling with inflation. <\/p>\n<p>            <img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Protest march.\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/file-20260331-71-pahl12.jpg\" class=\"native-lazy\" loading=\"lazy\"  \/><\/p>\n<p>              Protests in Buenos Aires against new labour laws, February 2026.<br \/>\n              EPA\/Juan Ignacio Roncoroni<\/p>\n<p>But what looks like a triumph <a href=\"https:\/\/www.uschamber.com\/international\/argentina-week-2026-proof-that-free-markets-deliver\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">to some<\/a> is, in reality, a deepening social crisis. Milei\u2019s Argentina is not a blueprint to be followed. It is a warning of what happens when the cure for inflation is more lethal than the disease itself.<\/p>\n<p>For this level of wage suppression is a stark reminder of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jstor.org\/stable\/4413486\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Argentina\u2019s economic crisis of 2001<\/a>, a period of total state failure, sovereign default, bank freezes and 20% unemployment that left a permanent scar on the national psyche. <\/p>\n<p>To have surpassed that level of wage suppression today is a damning indictment of Milei\u2019s approach. But while 2001 was a sudden collapse of a monetary system, the 2026 reality is a slow, institutionalised asphyxiation. <\/p>\n<p>The question for the coming years is how such a model can possibly be sustained. Milei has left the country with no economic levers to pull for a genuine recovery. <\/p>\n<p>With negative net reserves, a domestic market in ruins, and multi-billion dollar IMF and private debts hanging over the country, the government\u2019s path is now dictated entirely by a desperate need for dollars that turns every domestic policy into a plea for foreign capital.<\/p>\n<p>This has created an economic vacuum in which there is no credit for small businesses, no surplus for public investment and no consumer demand to entice private capital back into the real economy.<\/p>\n<p>That is why the administration\u2019s pitch to New York investors in March was essentially a desperate plea for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.batimes.com.ar\/news\/economy\/argentina-rating-upgrade-hinges-on-reserve-build-up-fitch-says.phtml\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">capital to fill this void<\/a>. But <a href=\"https:\/\/www.batimes.com.ar\/news\/opinion-and-analysis\/adorni-is-breaking-his-back.phtml#:%7E:text=For%20a%20few%20days%2C%20Manhattan%E2%80%99s%20financial%20elite%20saw%20Argentine%20officials%2C%20businessmen%2C%20entrepreneurs%20parade%20through%20town%20looking%20to%20attract%20fresh%20investment%20to%20sustain%20the%20elusive%20economic%20%E2%80%9Cmiracle%E2%80%9D%20that%20President%20Milei%20promises%20is%20just%20around%20the%20corner\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Wall Street<\/a> is not generally in the business of building factories or creating jobs in Argentina. <\/p>\n<p>If anything, its investors will be looking for easy short-term profits in a newly deregulated market. And what emerges then is an economically divided Argentina. On one side of this will be a thriving enclave of mining and agribusiness designed for the global market, and on the other, a vast urban industrial wasteland where millions of Argentinians struggle desperately to make ends meet.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"On paper, the numbers look astonishing. The annual rate of inflation in Argentina has plummeted from 211% in&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":370010,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[114,184,85,46],"class_list":{"0":"post-370009","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-economy","10":"tag-il","11":"tag-israel"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/370009","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=370009"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/370009\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/370010"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=370009"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=370009"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=370009"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}