A prolonged military escalation in the Middle East could shrink regional economies by 3.7 to 6.0 percent of GDP, translating into losses of $120-194 billion, according to a press release on the United Nations Development Programme website.<\/p>\n
The assessment, titled \u201cMilitary Escalation in the Middle East: Economic and Social Implications for the Arab States region,\u201d warns that the economic damage could exceed the region\u2019s total GDP growth recorded in 2025.<\/p>\n
The report also projects a sharp labour market impact, with unemployment rising by up to 4 percentage points — equivalent to 3.6 million jobs lost — while up to 4 million people could be pushed into poverty.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis crisis rings alarm bells for countries of the region to fundamentally reevaluate their strategic choices,\u201d said Abdallah Al Dardari, UN Assistant Secretary-General and Director of the Regional Bureau for Arab States at UNDP. He stressed the need for stronger regional cooperation and economic diversification beyond hydrocarbon dependence.<\/p>\n
Using computable general equilibrium modelling, the study examined multiple conflict scenarios, factoring in disruptions such as surging trade costs, productivity losses, and damage to capital.<\/p>\n
The findings show uneven impacts across sub-regions. The Gulf Cooperation Council and the Levant are expected to face the largest GDP losses — ranging from about 5.2 to 8.5 percent — driven by trade disruptions and energy market volatility. Poverty increases are projected to be most severe in the Levant and least developed Arab countries.<\/p>\n
In the Levant alone, poverty could rise by 5 percent, pushing up to 3.3 million more people into hardship — accounting for over three-quarters of the region\u2019s total increase.<\/p>\n
Overall, the report warns that human development across the region could decline by 0.2 to 0.4 percent, setting back progress by up to a year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"A prolonged military escalation in the Middle East could shrink regional economies by 3.7 to 6.0 percent of…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":370162,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[178127,114,184,178130,178132,85,46,178131,178128,178129],"class_list":["post-370161","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-arab-states-economic-implications","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-gulf-cooperation-council-gdp-losses","tag-human-development-decline-middle-east","tag-il","tag-israel","tag-levant-economic-damage","tag-middle-east-unemployment-rise","tag-poverty-increase-middle-east"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/370161","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=370161"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/370161\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/370162"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=370161"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=370161"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=370161"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}