{"id":370312,"date":"2026-04-02T00:47:17","date_gmt":"2026-04-02T00:47:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/370312\/"},"modified":"2026-04-02T00:47:17","modified_gmt":"2026-04-02T00:47:17","slug":"moodys-recession-model-is-just-1-percentage-point-away-from-a-signal-that-has-never-been-wrong-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/370312\/","title":{"rendered":"Moody’s Recession Model Is Just 1 Percentage Point Away From a Signal That Has Never Been Wrong."},"content":{"rendered":"\n

After sliding nearly 6% so far this year, the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) could be in for more trouble. Moody’s AI-driven recession model just put the odds of a U.S. downturn at 49%. The model was trained on 80 years of backtested data, and every time the odds have tipped above 50%, a recession hit<\/a> within 12 months.<\/p>\n

Here’s what makes this especially concerning for investors: That 49% figure is based on February data, meaning it doesn’t account for the U.S.-Iran War — a war that has knocked out roughly 20% of global crude oil production, pushing oil prices well above $100 a barrel.<\/p>\n

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\"An Image source: Getty Images. <\/p>\n

The 49% reflects an already soft economy. The U.S. shed 92,000 jobs last month, well below the 59,000 gain economists expected. Gross domestic product (GDP) was revised down from 1.4% to 0.7%, while inflation is still running above the Federal Reserve’s target.<\/p>\n

Now, with a conflict-driven oil shock, the odds are very good that Moody’s model will soon tip above the 50% threshold. After all, every U.S. recession since World War II, aside from the one due to COVID-19, was preceded by a spike in oil prices.<\/p>\n

Not everyone agrees, of course. Analysts at Goldman Sachs see only a 30% chance of recession, and plenty of analysts on Wall Street are still bullish.<\/p>\n

I think they are overly optimistic. I think there is a very good chance of a recession within the next year. If that happens, markets will suffer. <\/a><\/p>\n

But that doesn’t mean I’m advocating panic selling — that’s never a good idea. While playing things more conservatively right now is the way to go in my opinion, staying invested has always been the winning formula.<\/p>\n

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Netflix: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2004, you\u2019d have $518,530!*<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"After sliding nearly 6% so far this year, the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) could be in for more…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":370313,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[114,178195,184,85,46,6807,1973],"class_list":{"0":"post-370312","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-crude-oil-production","10":"tag-economy","11":"tag-il","12":"tag-israel","13":"tag-oil-prices","14":"tag-recession"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/370312","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=370312"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/370312\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/370313"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=370312"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=370312"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=370312"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}