Moody’s just released its latest recession odds: 49%. That’s just one percentage point below the threshold rating that has correctly indicated a recession every time in 80 years of backtested data. Even worse, that rating came out before the start of the war in Iran.<\/p>\n
![\"A](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/81245356729fbdcf83b1981919d6751d.jpeg\")
Image source: Getty Images. <\/p>\n
The report from Moody’s is something new: The model was introduced in 2025 as an artificial intelligence system (AI)<\/a> trained on 80 years of economic data. It has a perfect track record of determining prior recessions because it was designed to figure out what caused the past ones — that’s how training a model works. It was designed to identify the conditions that preceded past recessions, and continuously adjusted until it best fit real data perfectly.<\/p>\n There have been no instances yet where crossing the 50% line didn’t result in recession, but just because it crosses that threshold, it’s by no means a guarantee of a recession. But it should be concerning nonetheless.<\/p>\n Mark Zandi, the Moody’s economist behind the model, told Euronews that deteriorating labor market figures are the primary driver of the high reading. But he emphasized that virtually every major economic indicator has weakened since late last year.<\/p>\n The most recent numbers are certainly concerning: 92,000 jobs lost in February, unemployment ticking up, and gross domestic product (GDP) at a paltry 0.7%, all while inflation continues to stay above its 2% target.<\/p>\n But Moody’s 49% figure was calculated before the U.S.-Iran conflict shut down roughly a fifth of global crude production and sent oil rocketing above $100 a barrel. As Zandi admits, there is good reason to believe the odds will cross the 50% line.<\/p>\n Energy costs are a critical part of the model. Every recession<\/a> since World War II was preceded by a spike in fuel prices, save for the brief recession in the wake of COVID-19.<\/p>\n No model is perfect, and there is a reason 50% odds are not 100% even if backtesting shows a perfect record. But I am concerned. I think we’re very likely headed for a recession and a serious market downturn.<\/p>\n Still, panic selling is almost certainly the wrong move. Timing the market is exceptionally difficult, and for long-term investors, time is your friend. The market has always recovered and set new highs following a bear market, no matter how deep.<\/p>\n Ever feel like you missed the boat in buying the most successful stocks? Then you\u2019ll want to hear this.<\/p>\n On rare occasions, our expert team of analysts issues a \u201cDouble Down\u201d stock<\/a> recommendation\u00a0for companies that they think are about to pop. If you\u2019re worried you\u2019ve already missed your chance to invest, now is the best time to buy before it\u2019s too late. And the numbers speak for themselves:<\/p>\n Nvidia:\u00a0if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2009,\u00a0you\u2019d have $452,370!*<\/p>\n Apple: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2008, you\u2019d have $48,326!*<\/p>\n Netflix: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2004, you\u2019d have $518,530!*<\/p>\n Right now, we\u2019re issuing \u201cDouble Down\u201d alerts for three incredible companies, available when you join\u00a0Stock Advisor, and there may not be another chance like this anytime soon.<\/p>\n See the 3 stocks \u00bb<\/a><\/p>\n *Stock Advisor returns as of March 23, 2026<\/p>\n Johnny Rice<\/a> has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Moody’s. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy<\/a>.<\/p>\n