Three baht scenarios and what they could mean<\/p>\n
Yuthasak said assessing three exchange-rate bands against the US dollar helps quantify risks and clarify policy direction.<\/p>\n
\nScenario 1: Baht stronger than 30 per US dollar<\/p>\n
This is described as a crisis scenario that could occur if speculative capital surges into Thai risk assets, global gold prices jump, or the US dollar weakens sharply due to US public debt problems.<\/p>\n
A baht stronger than 30 would severely damage tourism competitiveness. If sustained, he said tourism revenue could fall by 15-17%, with long-haul markets contracting abruptly as overall trip costs exceed acceptable budgets. Short-haul markets could shift permanently to alternatives such as Vietnam, the Philippines or Indonesia.<\/p>\n
He also warned of a potential price war among hotels of around three-star and below, due to oversupply. Thailand\u2019s legally registered rooms and alternative supply on platforms such as Airbnb together exceed 200,000 rooms (about 15% of total supply).<\/p>\n
Exports would also risk losing market share to ASEAN competitors in ways that may be difficult to recover. If crude stays above US$80 per barrel, as projected by Bank of America for the second quarter, Thailand could face a current account deficit, further weakening stability.<\/p>\n
\nScenario 2: Baht at 30-32 per US dollar<\/p>\n
This is presented as the current situation and a likely baseline for 2026. Bank of America forecasts the baht could weaken towards 33 by mid-2026 before strengthening back towards 31 by year-end.<\/p>\n
In this range, Thailand is not expected to lose global appeal, but visitor composition could shift meaningfully. Price-sensitive travellers may decline, while higher \u201ceconomic resilience\u201d markets become more important\u2014such as higher-income visitors from nearby markets including Singapore, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Australia, and Gulf Arab countries, who prioritise experience, safety, health and gastronomy over price alone.<\/p>\n
Yuthasak noted average spend per trip by foreign visitors in Thailand is around US$1,300, below Japan (US$1,600) and Singapore (US$1,700)\u2014suggesting Thailand still has room to move upmarket. In this scenario, the economy could grow below potential at roughly 1.8-2.0%, with travellers more cautious in spending. Mid-tier businesses without a clear value proposition may struggle, while higher-value services\u2014such as medical tourism, spa and wellness\u2014could adapt better by targeting stronger-spending visitors.<\/p>\n
\nScenario 3: Baht at 32-34 per US dollar<\/p>\n
This band is described as a \u201cstrategic balance\u201d most aligned with economic realities. A further weakening towards 35 per US dollar\u2014as seen in 2019 before Covid\u2014would be an even stronger positive tailwind.<\/p>\n
At 32-34, Thailand\u2019s price competitiveness would match or exceed key peers such as Vietnam and Japan. Foreign travellers would feel better value, supporting a fuller tourism rebound, including renewed momentum from Chinese visitors and stronger income distribution to local SMEs. He noted tourism income remains concentrated in six main provinces: Bangkok, Phuket, Pattaya, Surat Thani, Chiang Mai and Krabi.<\/p>\n
At a macro level, he said 32-34 would help restore export margins, curb excessive import penetration without triggering unmanageable inflation, and could help Thailand push GDP growth above 2.5%.<\/p>\n
\nThree restructuring strategies for a sustainable tourism path forward<\/p>\n
To break out of the cycle of volatility, the Thai tourism industry should accelerate adaptation in three key areas:<\/p>\n
\n\tShift from volume to value by focusing on the silver economy and medical and wellness tourism, in order to increase spending per visitor.
\n\tStrengthen local supply chains by reducing reliance on imported inputs and supporting domestic farmers, helping to lower exposure to exchange-rate risk.
\n\tAdopt an integrated management approach, with the government closely coordinating monetary and fiscal policy to support SME operators and keep the exchange rate stable in a way that reflects true economic fundamentals.
<\/p>\n
The baht exchange rate is therefore not just a number\u2014it is a critical test that is pushing Thailand to build a more resilient and higher-value tourism ecosystem, ready to meet the challenges of the modern world sustainably.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Three baht scenarios and what they could mean Yuthasak said assessing three exchange-rate bands against the US dollar…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":374159,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[220,114,184,3472,85,117780,46,47,6807,2012,87408],"class_list":{"0":"post-374158","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-breaking-news","9":"tag-business","10":"tag-economy","11":"tag-exports","12":"tag-il","13":"tag-iran-war","14":"tag-israel","15":"tag-middle-east","16":"tag-oil-prices","17":"tag-tourism","18":"tag-tourism-authority-of-thailand-tat"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/374158","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=374158"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/374158\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/374159"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=374158"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=374158"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=374158"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}