Luxury is back. Following a relatively stagnant 2025, the industry is forecast to accelerate in 2026, with China\u2019s long-awaited recovery emerging as a pivotal factor, even as the war in Iran casts a shadow over global markets, according to analysts.<\/p>\n
Estimates vary, but HSBC, Deutsche Bank and BNP Paribas all forecast global sales growth ranging from 5.5 to 6 per cent this year.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe believe it is time to look at the sector, as we think the organic sales growth rate should further accelerate in 2026 and return to growth after two years of more muted sales growth rates \u2026 mostly driven by the two key drivers of growth: the US and China,\u201d wrote HSBC analysts led by Anne-Laure Bismuth in a March 30 note.<\/p>\n
Despite the war in Iran and turmoil in global energy markets, HSBC held its forecasts for the two main drivers of luxury growth \u2013 mainland China at 8 per cent and the United States at 10 per cent \u2013 while cutting its outlook for Europe from 4 to 2.5 per cent and revising the Middle East from 6 per cent growth to a 5 per cent decline.<\/p>\n
Agreeing that China\u2019s recovery would be a crucial driver for the sector this year, analysts from Deutsche Bank cautioned that the recovery might be \u201cvolatile\u201d as the country\u2019s economy still faces many challenges, namely the lingering property crisis.<\/p>\n