{"id":380373,"date":"2026-04-07T23:21:17","date_gmt":"2026-04-07T23:21:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/380373\/"},"modified":"2026-04-07T23:21:17","modified_gmt":"2026-04-07T23:21:17","slug":"fuel-shock-keeps-pressure-on-kiwi-borrowers-as-rbnz-weighs-next-move","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/380373\/","title":{"rendered":"Fuel shock keeps pressure on Kiwi borrowers as RBNZ weighs next move"},"content":{"rendered":"

Wesley Tanuvasa, ASB<\/a> economist, notes that \u201chigh fuel prices continue to sting NZ consumers<\/a>\u201d, and that its new oil\u2011shock forecasts point to higher inflation and lower growth over 2026, making the Reserve Bank\u2019s (RBNZ) job more complicated.<\/p>\n

The bank\u2019s modelling indicates retail spending will weaken through most of 2026 as higher energy costs and tighter financial conditions erode households\u2019 disposable income, with consumers retreating from durables and discretionary items back towards essentials such as fuel and groceries.<\/p>\n

Other bank economists are drawing similar conclusions, with Kiwibank economists highlighting that \u201cThe Kiwi economy runs on diesel\u201d and warn that threats to supply are already lifting prices and forcing an urgent focus on securing fuel and limiting demand.<\/a><\/p>\n

RBNZ cautious as inflation stays elevated<\/p>\n

ASB expects RBNZ to leave the official cash rate at 2.25% at this week\u2019s review, with markets already paring back expectations for near\u2011term hikes as growth concerns build. While wholesale interest rates have eased from late\u2011March peaks, ASB still sees a prolonged period of above\u2011target inflation, limiting scope for early rate cuts.<\/p>\n

Kiwibank<\/a> notes that Governor Anna Breman has been sending \u201cstrong signals that the RBNZ will not be rushed into reacting to fuel costs and the (temporary?) spike in inflation.<\/a>\u201d That stance suggests a period of relative stability in mortgage rates in the near term, even as borrowers remain exposed to renewed market volatility if the conflict in the Middle East escalates.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Wesley Tanuvasa, ASB economist, notes that \u201chigh fuel prices continue to sting NZ consumers\u201d, and that its new…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":380374,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[182039,114,184,85,46,162226,28880],"class_list":{"0":"post-380373","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-asb","9":"tag-business","10":"tag-economy","11":"tag-il","12":"tag-israel","13":"tag-oil-shock","14":"tag-rbnz"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/380373","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=380373"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/380373\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/380374"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=380373"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=380373"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=380373"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}