![\"Figure_01_US_diesel_index\"\/](\"https:\/\/www.iru.org\/sites\/default\/files\/2026-04\/Figure_01_US_diesel_index.jpg\")
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The EU weighted average diesel price reached EUR 2.169 per litre on 10 April, up 32.8% from the EUR 1.634 baseline.<\/p>\n
The spread between the cheapest and most expensive markets stands at EUR 1.38 per litre, an indication of how unevenly the crisis is affecting different EU countries.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n Most expensive: The Netherlands leads at EUR 2.588 per litre (+32.7%), followed by Denmark (EUR 2.441, +30.6%), Belgium (EUR 2.409, +41.4%), France (EUR 2.386, +39.5%), and Germany (EUR 2.349, +34.7%). Belgium’s 41.4% increase is the steepest in the top five.<\/p>\n Cheapest: Malta remains an outlier at EUR 1.21 per litre, unchanged since February, fully absorbed by its regulated price structure. Bulgaria (EUR 1.719, +33.4%) and Poland (EUR 1.81, +26.6%) recorded the cheapest average prices at the pump.<\/p>\n Government measures are accelerating across the Europe. At least 15 countries have activated fiscal interventions:<\/p>\n Austria cut excise by EUR 0.05 per litre from 1 April until 31 December 2026 and activated a price cap.\u00a0Croatia activated a EUR 0.16 per litre refund from 1 April 2026 and set a temporary price cap at EUR 1.73 per litre.\u00a0Germany introduced a one-price-increase-per-day rule at petrol stations on 1 April (market transparency, not a tax cut). Actual excise cuts, VAT reductions, and a windfall tax remain under discussion.\u00a0Hungary reduced its excise duty to the EU minimum level until 1 May and imposed fuel price caps applicable only to vehicles with Hungarian number plates.\u00a0Ireland has cut its excise duty on diesel by EUR 0.20 per litre until end of May, doubled the fuel allowance to EUR 76 per week, and introduced an operator diesel rebate backdated to January 2026.\u00a0Italy has extended its temporary fuel tax cut by a month until 1 May 2026. Since March, Italy has cut its excise duty by EUR 0.25 per litre and approved a 28% diesel tax credit for truckers.\u00a0Poland reduced its fuel VAT from 23% to 8% and cut its diesel excise to the EU minimum of EUR 0.33 per litre and implemented a maximum price cap on diesel at PLN 6.16 per litre.\u00a0Portugal cancelled its excise refund scheme, eliminating any benefit for transport operators.\u00a0Romania has activated a price cap with a EUR 0.17 per litre reduction mechanism.\u00a0Slovakia has activated a price cap at EUR 1.826 per litre.\u00a0Slovenia imposed a retail diesel price cap at EUR 1.528 per litre on 10 March, creating a gap of approximately EUR 0.50 below Italy and EUR 0.30 below Germany.\u00a0Spain cut its diesel VAT rate from 21% to 10% and introduced a EUR 0.20 per litre transport subsidy via a fuel card, effective from 22 March to 30 June 2026.\u00a0<\/p>\n Outside the EU, Serbia has cut its excise duty by 61% and released 40,000 tonnes of diesel from its reserves. Albania has cut by 20%, and Montenegro by 50%.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n AdBlue supply risk: The Strait of Hormuz blockade threatens 50% of global urea and sulphur exports. IRU member BGL<\/a> has warned of up to 170% AdBlue price increases, echoing the 2022 crisis when prices surged from EUR 0.35 to over EUR 2.00 per litre. No EU or Member State emergency stockpiling has been announced.<\/p>\n T\u00fcrkiye saw a 40% increase in diesel prices (in Turkish lira) since the beginning of the war. The \u00d6TV sliding-scale excise mechanism has absorbed a portion of the increase, but its fiscal capacity is approaching its limits, with Brent sustaining above USD 90 a barrel.<\/p>\n In China, diesel prices have risen by 25% since the start of the war.<\/p>\n China ordered its top oil refiners to immediately suspend diesel, gasoline and jet fuel exports in early March to protect domestic supply. This was followed by repeated government interventions to limit the pass-through of higher crude prices to consumers.<\/p>\n On 7 April, China again raised retail gasoline and diesel prices, but it capped the increase at roughly half the level implied by its pricing mechanism. However, these measures have only moderated rather than contained the rise, with prices continuing to trend upwards. China imports around 57% of its crude oil from the Middle East, leaving it highly exposed to disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.\u00a0<\/p>\n In India, diesel prices have risen by 5% since the start of the war, among the lowest of any major economy.<\/p>\n On 27 March, the government took further action, eliminating the central excise duty on diesel entirely and imposing export taxes on diesel and jet fuel to lock supply into the domestic market. India also benefits from Iran’s policy of allowing “friendly nations” to transit the Strait of Hormuz. The combination of these measures means that India’s pump prices have been substantially contained.<\/p>\n In Brazil, diesel prices have risen by 24% since the war started, reaching BRL 7.45 per litre (USD 1.44). The government’s 12 March package zeroed PIS\/Cofins import taxes on diesel, created a BRL 0.32 per litre subsidy until 31 December 2026, and imposed a 50% export tax on diesel.<\/p>\n The initial impact was undermined when Petrobras raised diesel prices by BRL 0.38 per litre. However, the situation has since shifted significantly as Petrobras is now pricing diesel at the refinery gate at 63% below import levels, aligning with government pressure to contain prices.<\/p>\n Brent price dynamics<\/p>\n Brent crude reached USD 97 a barrel on 10 April, up 33% from the pre-war baseline of USD 73 on 27 February. The intra-war peak of USD 119.24 was recorded on 31 March.<\/p>\n The week’s price action was dramatic. Brent reached USD 119.24 on 31 March before plunging to USD 105.94 on 1 April as ceasefire signals first emerged. Prices recovered to USD 109.74 on 2 April, then climbed to USD 111.80 on 7 April before the ceasefire announcement sent Brent down to USD 97.22 on 8 April. A brief recovery to USD 99.50 on 9 April followed Iran’s re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, before settling at USD 97.08 on 10 April. The USD 22.16 range between the 31 March high and the 8 April low is the widest intra-war swing to date.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/a>Natural gas<\/p>\n Dutch TTF natural gas reached EUR 46.17 per MWh on 9 April, up 44.5% from the pre-war baseline of EUR 31.96.<\/p>\n Week on week, TTF fell 7.7% from its recent peak. Prices held steady on 6 April, spiked to EUR 53.25 on 7 April as Strait of Hormuz tensions peaked, then dropped sharply to EUR 45.30 on 8 April on the ceasefire announcement before recovering slightly to EUR 46.17 on 9 April.<\/p>\n Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG facility, the world’s largest, remains under force majeure. According to Reuters, approximately 17% of Qatar’s LNG capacity is offline. It is estimated that the damage could take 3\u20135 years to repair.<\/p>\n LNG cargoes are being diverted to Asia as higher Asian prices outbid Europe, with realistic alternative supply totalling less than 2 million tonnes a month against a 5.8 million tonne monthly loss.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/p>\n