Brent crude oil prices are likely to stay above $100 per barrel for the rest of 2026 if the Strait of Hormuz stays shut for another month, Bloomberg reported on Thursday, citing a Goldman Sachs note.<\/p>\n
Analyst Daan Struyven\u00a0stated that the \u201csituation is fluid,\u201d echoing Vice President JD Vance\u2018s comments of a \u201cfragile\u201d truce following the two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran announced on Tuesday.<\/p>\n
“We continue to see the risks to our price forecast as skewed to the upside,\u201d said Struyen.<\/p>\n
According to Goldman Sachs, the limited traffic at Hormuz would lead to a loss of upstream production in the Middle East. As a result, Brent crude oil price could average at $120 per barrel in the third quarter and $115 per barrel in the fourth quarter of the year.<\/p>\n
Don’t Miss:<\/p>\n
However, if the situation improves over the weekend, the analysts foresee oil price at $82 per barrel in the third quarter and $80 per barrel in the final quarter of 2026.<\/p>\n
Iran\u2019s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has emerged as the biggest casualty of the war. The waterway that accounts for 20% of\u00a0global oil flows<\/a> is witnessing limited traffic even after the ceasefire, as Tehran continues strict monitoring.<\/p>\n Maritime Intelligence Firm, Windward, said on Wednesday that all vessel transits still require coordination with Iranian armed forces. “The strait has not reopened \u2014 it is in a supervised pause,\u201d it said.<\/p>\n Iran also threatened to keep Hormuz shut after Israel conducted large attacks on Lebanon, allegedly violating the ceasefire.<\/p>\n Due to the Hormuz crisis, Brent crude oil price climbed 10.05% over the past month, even touching $109 per barrel earlier this month. At 6:15 am ET, it was trading 0.62% higher at $96.51 per barrel.<\/p>\n