At the same time, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich\u2019s Religious Zionism party, which ran on a joint list with Otzma Yehudit in the last election and which currently holds seven of the Knesset\u2019s 120 seats, again failed to pass the 3.25 percent electoral threshold \u2014 as it has consistently in most polls for some time now.<\/p>\n
Why is one of Netanyahu\u2019s far-right allies surging in the polls, while another has dropped so precipitously?<\/p>\n
\u201cBen Gvir is hardcore, and today everyone wants hardcore,\u201d pollster Mitchell Barak of Keevoon Research Strategy & Communications told The Times of Israel, explaining that Ben Gvir\u2019s harsh rhetoric appeals to young voters on the right much more than the relatively restrained Smotrich.<\/p>\n
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\t\t\t\tBy signing up, you agree to the terms<\/a><\/p>\n As police minister, Ben Gvir may not have much to show in the way of substantive achievements, with violent crime on the rise and accusations that he engages in populist rather than substantive measures. But his voter base may care less about competence than his opposition to the so-called \u201cdeep state,\u201d a conspiracy theory spread by coalition members claiming that an unelected cabal of officials is exercising illegitimate state power and is out to thwart them, Barak said.<\/p>\n \t According to Dahlia Scheindlin, a political analyst and Haaretz columnist, while the specific political dynamic explaining Ben Gvir\u2019s rise and Smotrich\u2019s fall remains less than fully clear, hard-right religious voters are \u201ca limited demographic.\u201d Ben Gvir is \u201csplashy, radical and anti-establishment,\u201d allowing him to pick up \u201can anti-establishment vote on the far-right side of the map.\u201d<\/p>\n Agreeing with Barak\u2019s criticism of Ben Gvir as a minister, Scheindlin argued that his supporters are happy with the politicization of the police and \u201cthink it\u2019s good that he\u2019s reshaping policing in Israel to reflect a more right-wing view, less tolerant of, you know, pesky lefties and anti-war types.\u201d<\/p>\n As for Smotrich, he has been \u201ctrying to distinguish himself from Ben Gvir over the last couple of years by appealing to the mainstream traditional religious Zionist group\u2026and it\u2019s not totally working,\u201d said Scheindlin.<\/p>\n The failure of Smotrich<\/p>\n As for why Smotrich is not seeing similar success with voters despite, in Scheindlin\u2019s words, being \u201can incredibly successful minister in terms of what he has promised to do\u201d on expanding West Bank settlements<\/a>, part of it may come down to the fact that he is both the finance minister overseeing a wartime economy, and the political representative of a religious community deeply resentful of the government\u2019s efforts to pass legislation exempting ultra-Orthodox men from military service<\/a>.<\/p>\n According to a July 2025 survey<\/a> conducted by the Israel Democracy Institute, more than three-quarters of Religious Zionism voters support the imposition of sanctions and withdrawal of benefits from Haredim who do not serve in the IDF. Smotrich, who did almost no IDF service himself, has been noncommittal<\/a> on how he will vote on the controversial military exemption bill.<\/p>\n \t Speaking with The Times of Israel on Tuesday afternoon, Ariel Finkelstein, a researcher at the Israel Democracy Institute who focuses on issues of religion and state, noted that while Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism hold similar positions and even ran together in a brief \u201ctechnical\u201d alliance for the 2022 elections, they appeal to slightly disparate audiences.<\/p>\n While there is some overlap, \u201cthey are competing for different target demographics,\u201d with Ben Gvir garnering support among \u201ctraditional Mizrahi voters from the periphery\u201d and Smotrich appealing to \u201cthe more mainstream Religious Zionist crowd.\u201d<\/p>\n Ben Gvir is actually competing with Likud and the ultra-Orthodox Shas party for voters, which \u201cis less troubled by these issues of the draft and the Haredim,\u201d while Smotrich\u2019s voters have carried a \u201crelatively high share of the war\u2019s burden\u201d in terms of reserve duty and casualties, Finkelstein said.<\/p>\n \u201cYou don\u2019t see Ben Gvir getting hurt by this, even though he supports everything the government does regarding the Draft Law. You see a lot of pressure on Smotrich to deal with it, and he is much weaker because his voters feel much more anger and rage on this topic.\u201d<\/p>\n Another joint run?<\/p>\n In the end, \u201cthere\u2019s a very high chance\u201d that Smotrich will attempt to join with another right-wing party for a joint run in the coming election, similar to the deal Netanyahu brokered<\/a> between him and Ben Gvir in 2022, said Scheindlin.<\/p>\n \t \u201cI think it\u2019s obvious any party that\u2019s doing so poorly in all surveys for so long is going to be thinking first and foremost about the kinds of political constellations that [they] can forge that will ensure that [they] stay in Knesset. So I don\u2019t think anybody is under illusions that the next elections are going to vote Smotrich out of office.\u201d<\/p>\n The next general election must be held by late October.<\/p>\n Asked about his party\u2019s electoral chances, Religious Zionism MK Simcha Rothman, the chairman of the powerful Knesset Constitution, Law and Justice Committee, told The Times of Israel he believed that \u201cwith each passing day, the public is becoming increasingly exposed to the tremendous impact of Religious Zionism in settlement, the legal system, the economy and every field in which we operate.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cTherefore,\u201d he asserted, \u201cI am certain that Religious Zionism will be very successful in the upcoming elections.\u201d<\/p>\n
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\n\t\tNational Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir outside the High Court in Jerusalem, April 15, 2026 (Yonatan Sindel\/Flash90)<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/F260329YS736-1-640x400.jpg\")
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\n\t\tFinance Minister Bezalel Smotrich shakes hands with Shas leader Aryeh Deri (back to camera) during the vote to approve the state budget in the Knesset, early on March 30, 2026. The session was held in an alternate fortified room due to the ongoing Iran war. (Yonatan Sindel\/Flash90)<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/AfbyzQ6s_400x400.jpg\")
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\n\t\tPollster and analyst Dahlia Scheindlin. (Oren Ziv)<\/p>\n
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