{"id":396473,"date":"2026-04-17T05:16:13","date_gmt":"2026-04-17T05:16:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/396473\/"},"modified":"2026-04-17T05:16:13","modified_gmt":"2026-04-17T05:16:13","slug":"imf-others-lower-gdp-growth-forecasts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/396473\/","title":{"rendered":"IMF, others lower GDP growth forecasts"},"content":{"rendered":"

The war in Iran will have a noticeable impact on the global economy, according to recent estimates that a risk-aware<\/a> CFO will find unsurprising.<\/p>\n

In its latest<\/a> World Economic Outlook released on Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund predicted global real GDP growth would slow to 3.1% this year, compared with 3.4% growth in 2024 and 2025. That\u2019s 0.2 percentage points lower than the IMF\u2019s previous estimate. The organization didn\u2019t change its 2027 growth estimate of 3.2%.<\/p>\n

\u201cAbsent the war [in the Middle East], global growth would have been revised upward,\u201d the IMF noted. The conflict \u201cpresents a significant counterforce\u201d to tailwinds like tech investments and a weaker US dollar, through its impact on commodity prices and inflation expectations, it added. Also noteworthy: The IMF made its predictions with the assumption \u201cthe conflict remains limited in duration and scope.\u201d<\/p>\n

Oxford Economics was even more pessimistic. In a research briefing released the same day, the organization called the IMF\u2019s forecast \u201cstill too rosy.\u201d Rather, it expects 2.9% global GDP growth in 2026. The economic forecasting and advisory firm noted that its more pessimistic view is \u201cconsistent with a higher oil price path than the IMF\u2019s: we anticipate the Brent oil price averaging $90pb in 2026\u2014about $10pb higher than the IMF assumes.\u201d<\/p>\n

Oxford Economics also cut its March estimate of US GDP growth by 0.9 percentage points to 1.9%. The lowered projection reflects \u201cthe weak start to the year due to poor weather and the expected hit to consumer spending from higher oil prices.\u201d But Oxford Economics noted that it expects disruption from the war in Iran will \u201cprove short-lived.\u201d<\/p>\n

News built for finance pros<\/p>\n

CFO Brew helps finance pros navigate their roles with insights into risk management, compliance, and strategy through our newsletter, virtual events, and digital guides.<\/p>\n

The IMF projects real GDP growth for the US would be slightly higher for 2026: 2.3%.<\/p>\n

What finance execs are thinking. CFOs are aware that geopolitical instability can impact their organizations\u2019 bottom line.<\/p>\n

McKinsey\u2019s latest CFO Pulse survey<\/a> found that finance leaders viewed geopolitical issues as \u201cone of the biggest risks to their company\u2019s growth,\u201d even more than they did in an early 2025 survey.<\/p>\n

Similarly, Deloitte\u2019s Q1 2026 North American CFO Signals survey<\/a> found that finance leaders have less risk appetite than before. Just under half of respondents (48%) agreed it was a \u201cgood time to take greater risks,\u201d compared with 59% in Q4 2025. CFOs named supply chain disruption as the biggest external risk, followed by inflation, geopolitics, and interest rates.<\/p>\n

Geopolitical volatility makes it harder for organizations to predict and plan, according to Aidana Zhakupbekova, CFO of expense-management software firm Rydoo. Zhakupbekova told CFO Brew that traditional budgeting is \u201cno longer acceptable\u201d and quarterly forecast updates become stale too quickly due to cost volatility.<\/p>\n

\u201cI personally can\u2019t wait, even for a month to close, to see where we\u2019re at,\u201d she said. \u201cWe need to understand how we\u2019re hit\u2014if it\u2019s a little bit over budget here and there, it might be fine, but if you see consistent overspend in the cost category\u2026you need to pivot sooner.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The war in Iran will have a noticeable impact on the global economy, according to recent estimates that…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":396474,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[42,43,40,38,41,39],"class_list":{"0":"post-396473","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-headlines","8":"tag-headlines","9":"tag-news","10":"tag-top-news","11":"tag-top-stories","12":"tag-topnews","13":"tag-topstories"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/396473","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=396473"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/396473\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/396474"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=396473"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=396473"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=396473"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}