There is a high likelihood that the phenomenon known as \u201cEl Ni\u00f1o\u201d will emerge this summer \u2013 and it could be exceptionally strong. A so-called \u201csuper El Ni\u00f1o\u201d could supercharge extreme weather events and push global temperatures to record heights next year if it develops, according to experts.<\/p>\n
Meteorologists are keeping a close eye on the climate patterns developing in the Pacific Ocean that will enable stronger predictions about what\u2019s to come in the year ahead.<\/p>\n
A strong El Ni\u00f1o would put 2027 in the running to break global heat records, and could produce a series of devastating effects, ranging from supercharged rainstorms to drought depending on the region of the world.<\/p>\n
While it\u2019s not \u201ca slam dunk\u201d, climate scientist and media director for Climate Central Tom Di Liberto said during a briefing held on Thursday, the ingredients for El Ni\u00f1o are there. Forecasts in spring can\u2019t account for unexpected changes that can happen over the summer, he added, but \u201cthe risk is high enough to be worried\u201d.<\/p>\n
Here\u2019s what you need to know:<\/p>\n
What is El Ni\u00f1o?<\/p>\n
The ocean and the atmosphere are inextricably linked. That\u2019s why forecasters look closely at ocean temperatures and conditions to help predict future weather patterns around the world.<\/p>\n
El Ni\u00f1o is characterized by warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It\u2019s one of three states scientists observe; La Ni\u00f1a, conversely, happens when sea surface temperatures are below average, and neutral conditions are defined when neither El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a are present and surface temperatures are about average.<\/p>\n
These three states together form the \u201cEl Ni\u00f1o-southern oscillation\u201d (Enso), which tends to develop during spring in the northern hemisphere and shifts every three to seven years, according to the US National Weather Service. Warming and cooling at sea surface during El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a can range from 1C to 3C, and have enormous effects on precipitation, drought, heat and climate disasters in different regions, depending on which direction they go.<\/p>\n
During Ni\u00f1o years, the winds that would push warm waters to the west soften or shift direction, enabling the surface waters in that part of the Pacific to warm. Characterized by temperatures at least 0.5C above the norm, these conditions massively impact the weather and often push global temperatures to new heights.<\/p>\n
Climate scientists are quick to point out that each event is unique and there\u2019s considerable variability between them, in intensity and outcomes. But Enso predictions can help people around the world prepare for coming shifts in extreme weather \u2013 an essential tool in a warming world.<\/p>\n
Conditions are currently shifting from La Ni\u00f1a to a neutral pattern, according to the latest outlook from the US Climate Prediction Center released on 6 April, but models are showing a 62% chance El Ni\u00f1o will emerge this summer<\/a> and linger until at least the end of the year.<\/p>\n How will El Ni\u00f1o affect weather events?<\/p>\n While there are many factors that create weather, El Ni\u00f1o can create a massive atmospheric upset. It alters jet streams and flips precipitation patterns, fueling more severe storms in some parts of the world, while desiccating others. It also has the power to spike rising temperatures even higher, at least briefly.<\/p>\n A super El Ni\u00f1o that occurred in 2015 brought<\/a> severe drought in Ethiopia and water supply shortages in Puerto Rico, and smashed records after unleashing a vicious hurricane season in the central north Pacific, according to an analysis by US federal scientists.<\/p>\n The cycle tends to create drought and heat across Australia, around southern and central Africa, in India and in parts of South America, including in the Amazon rainforest. Heavy precipitation, meanwhile, could hit the southern tier of the US, parts of the Middle East, and south-central Asia.<\/p>\n Deluges could come as a welcome relief for thirsty states in the US hoping water supply shortages caused by this year\u2019s dire snowpack might be bailed out by a strong summer monsoon and wetter winter next year. But as Di Liberto pointed out, these dry conditions have largely been fueled by heat, and it\u2019s less likely that these regions will get a reprieve from rising temperatures.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s important to note when we are talking about the drought, a lot of it has been temperature-driven and not precipitation-driven,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Experts have also said that, most devastatingly, dry basins won\u2019t be able to rebound after one wet season. That\u2019s particularly true in the US south-west, where some reservoirs are at an all-time low.<\/p>\n \u201cJust because we\u2019re expecting a large-scale change in the climate pattern doesn\u2019t necessarily mean that we\u2019re going to see drought completely erased,\u201d Dr Joel Lisonbee, senior associate scientist at the Cooperative Institute for Research at the University of Colorado Boulder said. \u201cIt would have to be exceptionally wet,\u201d he added. \u201cThat would also mean flooding, and the destruction and potential loss of life that comes along with that.\u201d<\/p>\n Why are scientists talking about a \u2018super El Ni\u00f1o\u2019?<\/p>\n A \u201csuper\u201d El Ni\u00f1o just means one that is stronger. These are rare events typically defined by sea surface temperatures spiking up by at least 2C. This has only occurred a few times since 1950 and only once have temperatures surged past 2.5C<\/a>.<\/p>\n The higher they go, the higher the likelihood that impacts from El Ni\u00f1o would be supercharged. Noaa scientists have given a one in four chance that this could happen by fall or winter, with the caveat that spring forecasts are sometimes muddled. Transitions in conditions that happen in the spring can make outcomes a bit harder to predict. But there are already key indicators that a strong or super El Ni\u00f1o could be forming.<\/p>\n Dr Paul Roundy, a professor of atmospheric and environmental sciences at the State University of New York at Albany, wrote<\/a> this week that there was \u201creal potential for the strongest El Ni\u00f1o event in 140 years\u201d. Dr Andy Hazelton, associate scientist at the University of Miami, wrote<\/a>: \u201cAll models and observations are pointing in the same direction: a very strong El Ni\u00f1o with significant impacts on global climate this year.\u201d<\/p>\n How likely is this to happen?<\/p>\n While the models show a good chance that something big could develop, experts have also pointed out these readings tend to skew higher because of overall warming trends that affect baselines.<\/p>\n \u201cWe have this underlying warming trend that makes our El Ni\u00f1os look bigger than they really are and makes our La Ni\u00f1as look smaller than they really are because everything\u2019s just getting warmer,\u201d said Lisonbee. This year, Noaa began using a new model to better identify what might be an anomaly and what\u2019s tied to overall warming, but other tools still rely on historical data.<\/p>\n Spring also tends to not provide the clearest picture, due to natural transitions that happen during this time of year. \u201cEven though our models are predicting El Ni\u00f1o right now and some models are predicting a very strong one, I would not be surprised to see the forecast change over the next few months,\u201d Lisonbee said. \u201cWe call it the spring predictability barrier, and the models tend to change quite a bit from one model run to the next.\u201d<\/p>\n