{"id":396572,"date":"2026-04-17T06:43:16","date_gmt":"2026-04-17T06:43:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/396572\/"},"modified":"2026-04-17T06:43:16","modified_gmt":"2026-04-17T06:43:16","slug":"how-space-weather-forecasting-keeps-astronauts-and-satellites-safe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/396572\/","title":{"rendered":"How space weather forecasting keeps astronauts (and satellites) safe"},"content":{"rendered":"

BOULDER, Colorado \u2013 The sun\u2019s volatile outbursts, such as storms, flares and other space weather, can cause serious harm to astronauts like the Artemis 2 crew who recently came home, and to satellites. That\u2019s why the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) in Boulder, Colorado \u2014 part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration \u2014 is working to sharpen space weather forecasting skills, honing the ability to monitor the space environment and provide solar-terrestrial information. The SWPC, the official source of space weather alerts and warnings for the United States, is driven to monitor solar outbursts that can impact satellite communications, GPS systems and electric power transmission here on Earth.<\/p>\n

Gathering data about the sun\u2019s output also played a major role during the 10-day Artemis 2 mission, where operators on the ground kept a 24\/7 vigil to keep an eye on threatening solar radiation storms.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere is a growing vulnerability from space weather to a range of technologies,\u201d SWPC Director Clinton Wallace told SpaceNews. \u201cPrediction is giving our best educated, informed decision based on observations and models that we have.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

To that end, understanding solar storm phenomena is a critical component to producing accurate space weather forecasts, from onset of an event to location, duration and severity, Wallace said. But space weather forecasting is decades behind terrestrial weather prediction, he added.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re a lot younger. We have a long ways to go to catch up and have the same level of maturity,\u201d said Wallace, who added that the SWPC is working to develop better models, based on physics research and artificial intelligence, that can forecast events while also reporting on uncertainty and risk.<\/p>\n

Protecting the Artemis 2 crew<\/p>\n

Since becoming the SWPC Director in March 2019, Wallace championed the creation of a new space weather prediction testbed. That dedicated room enables customers, researchers, and forecasters to engage collaboratively on improvements to observations, models and forecast products.<\/p>\n

In April and May of 2025, the testbed saw more than 70 participants from NASA, the U.S. Air Force, commercial space companies, research institutions and international partners taking part in Artemis 2 exercises. Participants worked together through simulated radiation storm scenarios and assessed space weather modeling measures.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>Artemis 2 testbed exercise held last year at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\u2019s Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, Colorado. Credit: National Weather Service\/ NOAA<\/p>\n

Wallace said that the SWPC testbed exercises for the Artemis 2 flight \u201cfar exceeded every expectation.\u201d<\/p>\n

That hands-on, immersive experience sharpened space weather forecasting knowhow, said Shawn Dahl, a service coordinator at the SWPC. \u201cIt gave us the opportunity to test, evaluate and improve our models on the spot,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Dahl added that, prior to the Artemis 2 launch, SWPC had frequent decision-support conversations with the responsible launch weather officer about solar energetic protons and whether any thresholds might be reached. And during Artemis 2, the SWPC was able to confidently assess that no significant solar weather would coincide with the mission.<\/p>\n

\u201cAfter launch and early in the mission, we had a few occasions when we needed to quickly decide whether solar energetic protons might increase, but we did not think that would be the case and relayed that information to NASA via our forecaster deployed to Houston,\u201d Dahl said.<\/p>\n

Megaconstellation hazard<\/p>\n

Beyond astronaut health, the SWPC is also working to enable technology such as GPS system spacecraft and Starlink and Amazon Leo megaconstellation satellites to deal with the brunt of solar weather. These satellites are at risk: a May 2024 solar storm caused severe impact to low Earth orbit satellites.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cSurprisingly, we saw an estimated billion dollars-plus of economic impact to farmers that rely on precision GPS, just that one sector of agriculture,\u201d Wallace said.<\/p>\n

A recent geomagnetic storm also produced extra drag on Starlink satellites, disrupting their orbit.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cWe could actually start to see the satellites drop several kilometers,\u201d said Wallace. \u201cThen you get into those scenarios where we start denying our ability to fly in low Earth orbit and cause a threat to other satellites. We don\u2019t want to have collisions of satellites in LEO.\u201d<\/p>\n

Sun-gazing spacecraft<\/p>\n

New spacecraft, alongside ground-based tools, will make the process of monitoring and forecasting space weather easier in the future, resulting in more comprehensive forecasts with greater lead times.\u00a0<\/p>\n

A new addition to the SWPC\u2019s sun watching is NOAA\u2019s Space Weather Observations at L1 to Advance Readiness \u2013 1 (SOLAR-1) launched this past January. \u201cIt\u2019s now on location and perhaps in operational mode by the end of April,\u201d Dahl said, and is designed to continuously monitor the sun and space weather from that unique vantage point roughly one million miles from Earth.<\/p>\n

Another space asset the SWPC is eagerly awaiting is the European Space Agency\u2019s Vigil satellite, said Dahl.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Vigil, to be launched in the early 2030s, will be positioned to attain a side view of the sun, on the lookout for potentially hazardous solar activity before it is detectable from Earth. \u201cThat side view will tell us if a coronal mass ejection is headed towards Earth or not, and if so help us predict arrival at Earth more timely,\u201d Dahl said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Creating a space weather-ready nation<\/p>\n

One of Wallace\u2019s central objectives is promoting a \u201cspace weather-ready nation.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cBecause of our reliance on technology,\u201d Wallace said, \u201cwe\u2019re becoming increasingly vulnerable. That doesn\u2019t mean we haven\u2019t made progress and seen improvements in the last decade,\u201d he continued, but there\u2019s a need to ensure that new scientific insights are used in forecasting and infrastructure preparedness.<\/p>\n

To that end, SWPC is working with the Department of Homeland Security on benchmarks that define just how big solar storms can get and their potential impact.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s very clear that we\u2019re going to see space weather as one of these risks within a National Risk Register,\u201d said Wallace. \u201cTogether, the whole U.S. government is trying to do everything in our power to protect the critical infrastructure that we rely on for our daily lives.\u201d<\/p>\n

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