Tel Aviv\u00a0\u2014\u00a0\n <\/p>\n
\n The call that US President Donald Trump<\/a> predicted didn\u2019t happen, but he left little doubt about what would come next.\n <\/p>\n \n On Thursday morning, Trump said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would speak to Lebanese President Joseph Aoun. It would have been the first direct contact in decades between the leaders of the two neighboring countries, which have no diplomatic relations. Trump declared that it would provide for \u201ca little breathing room.\u201d\n <\/p>\n \n But against the backdrop of a hot war between Israel and Iranian proxy Hezbollah, Aoun declined the call<\/a>.\n <\/p>\n \n Trump wasn\u2019t waiting for a conversation to happen.\n <\/p>\n \n Just hours later, Trump announced that a ceasefire<\/a> would begin at midnight. And Netanyahu had little choice but to go along. It is the latest example of a pattern whereby Trump\u2019s declarations box in perhaps his most vocal international supporter, compelling Netanyahu to make critical strategic decisions based on what the US president will allow. Netanyahu routinely hails the close coordination between the US and Israel<\/a> \u2013 between himself and Trump \u2013 but at key moments, Trump has forced his Netanyahu\u2019s hand.\n <\/p>\n \n Less than a week ago, Netanyahu had vowed that the war against Hezbollah was still going. \u201cWe are still fighting them,\u201d he said. \u201cIt is not over yet.\u201d And on Wednesday, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir said that he had just approved more war plans in Lebanon and Iran.\n <\/p>\n \n But without Trump\u2019s approval, Netanyahu has little room to maneuver. Although the temporary ceasefire is supposed to last 10 days, it\u2019s clear Trump intends for it to hold. \u201cIt has been my Honor to solve 9 Wars across the World, and this will be my 10th,\u201d he boasted on social media.\n <\/p>\n \n In a security-cabinet meeting on Wednesday evening, Israeli leaders discussed the possibility of a temporary ceasefire. But there was no vote and no admission that an end to the war may be just days away. On Thursday evening, moments before Trump announced a ceasefire in Lebanon, Netanyahu convened his security cabinet again for a remote consultation.\n <\/p>\n \n Israelis \u2013 politicians and residents alike \u2013 learned about the ceasefire not from Netanyahu but from a Trump social media post.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cAt this stage of the war, which he entered into largely due to Netanyahu\u2019s persuasion, Trump has become the final, if not the exclusive, arbiter,\u201d wrote Amos Harel, Haaretz\u2019s military analyst. \u201cJust as Trump forced the conclusion of the previous 12-day war against Iran in June, he has now imposed temporary ceasefires in Iran and in Lebanon.\u201d\n <\/p>\n Forcing Netanyahu\u2019s hand \u2013 over and over<\/p>\n \n In total, Trump has forced Netanyahu\u2019s hand on at least five separate occasions, including the two wars with Iran. The US president pressured Netanyahu into a ceasefire with Hamas<\/a> in Gaza, and he compelled Netanyahu to call Qatar and apologize for a failed Israeli strike in Doha targeting Hamas leaders. Lebanon is just the latest example.\n <\/p>\n \n And in each case, Israel fell short of the decisive victory it desired \u2026 and which Netanyahu had promised. In Gaza, Hamas has firm control over the half of the coastal territory not occupied by Israel. In Lebanon, Hezbollah remains a formidable threat capable of launching drones and rockets at Israel. In Iran, the regime of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is now the regime of his son, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.\n <\/p>\n \n The Israeli military has expanded its territorial grip on each front, holding more land in Gaza, Lebanon<\/a> and Syria<\/a>. And, at least as of now, there has been no real pressure from the White House for Israeli forces to withdraw. For Netanyahu, these swaths of land are deeper security zones, which Israel may well hold for years. But they are far from victory.\n <\/p>\n \n Israel\u2019s adversaries have no doubt been weakened, but they have survived.\n <\/p>\n