Scientists and officials are keeping a close eye on conditions brewing in the Pacific Ocean that could spike temperatures and smash global heat records in the year ahead.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s still too early to get a definitive picture, but there are signs that a so-called super El Ni\u00f1o could develop this year, supercharging extreme weather events around the world. Some forecasts are suggesting it could become one of the strongest ever recorded.<\/p>\n
Alongside heating from the human-caused climate crisis, this could put the world on track to once again temporarily breach the 1.5C average temperature rise over preindustrial levels \u2013 the critical climate threshold that experts have warned comes with a host of catastrophic consequences. Some models show that temperature anomalies could even push past that point next year and go beyond a 2C increase for the first time in recorded history.<\/p>\n
What would a super El Ni\u00f1o look like and what would it mean for the global climate? I\u2019ll explain, after this week\u2019s most important reads.<\/p>\n
Essential readsIn focusAn image of the effect of El Ni\u00f1o on the Pacific Ocean. Photograph: Science Photo Library\/Alamy<\/p>\n
Temporary breaches of that 1.5C mark aren\u2019t on the same level of concern as longer-term temperature increases, but they are stepping stones on a perilous path.<\/p>\n
Marc Alessi, a fellow at the Union of Concerned Scientists said this week in an analysis<\/a>: \u201cWhile the majority of models predict global monthly temperature anomalies will remain below 2C, the fact that there\u2019s a nonzero chance of +2C happening is shocking,\u201d adding that such an increase would push the world closer to dangerous tipping points.<\/p>\n Before we go deeper into what the models are showing, a quick refresher: El Ni\u00f1o is a natural climate phenomenon characterised by the warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, that typically occurs every two to seven years and tends to last between nine and 12 months. During El Ni\u00f1o years, the winds that would push warm waters to the west soften or shift direction, enabling the surface waters in that part of the Pacific to warm.<\/p>\n El Ni\u00f1o is one of three states scientists observe, and each helps shape important weather predictions for the year that follows. La Ni\u00f1a, conversely, happens when sea surface temperatures are below average, and neutral conditions are defined when neither El Ni\u00f1o nor La Ni\u00f1a are present and surface temperatures are about average. These events generally develop between April and June but don\u2019t reach full strength until later in the year, between October and the following February.<\/p>\n Warming and cooling at sea surface during El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a can range from 1C to 3C, and have enormous effects on precipitation, drought, heat and climate disasters in different regions, depending on which direction they go.<\/p>\n Right now, conditions are shifting out of La Ni\u00f1a and into a neutral pattern, according to the latest outlook from the US Climate Prediction Center. But models are showing a rapid transition toward El Ni\u00f1o. A forecast from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society<\/a> at Columbia University, published on Monday, gave a 70% chance of El Ni\u00f1o developing by June and up to 94% probability that it would persist through the end of the year.<\/p>\n While the models suggest there is a good chance of something big developing, experts have also pointed out these readings tend to skew higher because of overall warming trends that affect baselines. Spring also tends to provide a slightly muddied picture, due to natural transitions that happen during this time of year. But the early forecasts suggests that there\u2019s a strong chance of El Ni\u00f1o developing.<\/p>\n The UK Met Office said in a statement<\/a> released with its 15 April forecast: \u201cThere is growing confidence that this event could sit at the upper end of the historical range. Scientists are telling us that this could be the strongest El Ni\u00f1o event so far this century.\u201d<\/p>\n A \u201csuper\u201d El Ni\u00f1o isn\u2019t a term used by the Met Office or by many other scientific organisations, but it is used to denote a very strong El Ni\u00f1o, where the warming of sea surface temperatures is higher than 2C above normal. This has only occurred a few times since 1950 and only once have temperatures surged past 2.5C<\/a>. The US Climate Prediction Center gave a 50% chance that a strong or very strong El Ni\u00f1o would develop between November and January.<\/p>\n Each El Ni\u00f1o event is unique, with impacts that are highly variable and change considerably depending on region and season. But the cycle tends to create drought and heat across Australia, around southern and central Africa, in India and in parts of South America, including in the Amazon rainforest. Heavy precipitation, meanwhile, could hit the southern tier of the US, parts of the Middle East, and south-central Asia. It also flips hurricane activity, suppressing development in the Atlantic Ocean while increasing the likelihood that powerful tropical storms will churn out of the Pacific.<\/p>\n