Traders reportedly placed\u00a0bets worth $430 million on\u00a0a decrease in crude oil prices, just 15 minutes before President Donald Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire with Iran on Tuesday.<\/p>\n
This marks the fourth instance of large, well-timed directional oil bets placed just ahead of major Iran war developments, with April wagers totaling about $2.1 billion, Reuters reported on Wednesday. Previously, in March, traders placed bets amounting to more than $500 million in the oil market minutes before a significant Truth Social post by Trump concerning “productive” Iran talks.<\/p>\n
Between 19:54 and 19:56 GMT on Tuesday, traders sold 4,260 lots of oil,\u00a0worth a total of $430 million,\u00a0based on the prevailing Brent\u00a0futures price, reported the publication, citing LSEG data. Trump announced the indefinite ceasefire extension at 20:10 GMT. These trades occurred during post-settlement hours, a period when trading volumes are typically very low.<\/p>\n
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At 5:16 am ET, Brent crude oil was trading 2.62% higher at $104.60 per barrel.<\/p>\n
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and CME Group did not immediately respond to Benzinga’s request for comments.<\/p>\n
On Sunday, the Speaker of the Iranian parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, took a dig at “vibe-trading” in oil, saying recent market speculation was being driven by Trump’s posts on Iran.<\/p>\n
While these strategies may seem clever, Ghalibaf warned that they are built on unstable foundations. He noted that oil trading has a tangible anchor in the form of Dated Brent, the\u00a0benchmark price for physical crude\u00a0oil. However, he suggested that U.S.\u00a0Treasury bonds are now priced\u00a0based on sentiment and geopolitics, hinting at a weak U.S. financial credibility.<\/p>\n
Vibe-trading digital oil is like vibe-hedging in treasuries during Hormuz risk-off. Both share one house of cards that works on paper.
Difference: oil at least has Dated Brent. Treasuries? Vibes all the way down.<\/p>\n
EUCRBRDT Index GP <\/p>\n
\u2014 \u0645\u062d\u0645\u062f\u0628\u0627\u0642\u0631 \u0642\u0627\u0644\u06cc\u0628\u0627\u0641 | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) April 19, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n