{"id":437600,"date":"2026-05-12T08:53:41","date_gmt":"2026-05-12T08:53:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/437600\/"},"modified":"2026-05-12T08:53:41","modified_gmt":"2026-05-12T08:53:41","slug":"economic-week-ahead-may-11-15","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/437600\/","title":{"rendered":"ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: May 11-15"},"content":{"rendered":"

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The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,398.93, another record high. The index is 9.2% above its 200-day moving average. Earnings have done the heavy lifting so far this year. The Q1-2026 earnings reporting season is winding down, with\u00a0companies representing\u00a01% of the\u00a0S&P\u00a0500\u2019s\u00a0market cap reporting this week and another 12% the following week.<\/p>\n

Industry analysts\u2019 consensus\u00a0Q1-2026\u00a0earnings\u00a0forecasts\u00a0for the S&P 500 companies in aggregate represent growth of\u00a018.0% y\/y, while\u00a0their\u00a0full-year\u00a0estimates imply\u00a02026\u00a0growth of\u00a024.0%, well above the 11.7% and 13.6% posted in 2024 and 2025\u00a0(chart).\u00a0The\u00a0growth expected in\u00a02027\u00a0is 14.9%.<\/p>\n

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The week ahead is dominated by inflation reports, with both April headline CPI (Tue) and PPI (Wed) expected to push above 3.5% y\/y, as the average national retail gasoline price climbed to $4.58 per gallon,\u00a0and nearby gasoline futures to $3.53,\u00a0last week (chart). The Trump-Xi meeting\u00a0(Thu and Fri)\u00a0is the most under-discussed event on the calendar and the most consequential, particularly with the Iran conflict still unresolved and Beijing’s posture on the war and tariffs all in play. Finally, we\u00a0will\u00a0see the appointment of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair\u00a0when\u00a0Jerome\u00a0Powell’s term as chair ends\u00a0(Fri).<\/p>\n

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With that said, here are the key releases most likely to shape investors’ thinking this week:<\/p>\n

(1) Inflation.\u00a0The Cleveland Fed Inflation\u00a0Nowcasting<\/a>\u00a0model\u00a0has Tuesday\u2019s headline CPI rising 0.45% m\/m, enough to push the annual rate to 3.56% y\/y, up from 3.30% in March. Core CPI looks more benign, rising 0.21% m\/m, with the annual rate edging down to 2.56% y\/y from 2.60% (chart). More consequentially, May\u2019s preliminary\u00a0Nowcast points to\u00a0headline inflation\u00a0rising to\u00a03.89%\u00a0y\/y, a trajectory that would constrain Warsh from easing monetary policy from day one.<\/p>\n

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The ISM Prices-Paid Index, a six-month forward inflation signal, rose to 155.3 in April, the highest reading since December 2022, suggesting upside risk to April’s Final Demand PPI inflation rate (chart).<\/p>\n

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(2) Retail Sales.\u00a0April retail sales (Thu) will arrive amid a chorus of predictions of an imminent consumer retrenchment,\u00a0which\u00a0weekly\u00a0data refute. Redbook same-store sales rose 7.8% y\/y for the week of May 1, the highest reading since late 2022 (chart). Spending is advancing, not retreating.<\/p>\n

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(3) Unemployment. Initial jobless claims (Thu) rose to 200,000 for the week of May 1, with the four-week moving average at 203,200 (chart). Continuing claims came in at 1,766,000, with the four-week moving average at 1,794,000.<\/p>\n

Friday\u2019s April payroll employment report beat expectations, confirming our assessment that the labor market is improving enough to keep the Fed on hold. The six-month average gain in payrolls climbed to 55,000 in April, the highest since May\u00a0of\u00a0last year.<\/p>\n

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(4) Industrial Production. April industrial production (Fri) should show a solid increase given the recent strength of the national M-PMI (chart).<\/p>\n

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The bright spot should remain technology production, with communications equipment, computer and peripheral\u00a0equipment,\u00a0and semiconductor output all at record highs during March (chart).<\/p>\n

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\ud83d\udca1<\/p>\n

Join the discussion with Ed below! To leave comments or questions, log in to the Yardeni QuickTakes website and post them at the end of the QuickTakes article. Paid members’ contributions may be featured in our segment, “Ed Answers Your Questions”.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,398.93, another record high. The index is 9.2% above its 200-day moving…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":423999,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[114,184,85,46],"class_list":["post-437600","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-il","tag-israel"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/437600","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=437600"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/437600\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/423999"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=437600"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=437600"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=437600"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}