{"id":43849,"date":"2025-09-29T00:40:07","date_gmt":"2025-09-29T00:40:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/43849\/"},"modified":"2025-09-29T00:40:07","modified_gmt":"2025-09-29T00:40:07","slug":"good-news-bad-news-for-the-jobs-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/43849\/","title":{"rendered":"Good news-bad news for the jobs market"},"content":{"rendered":"

They giveth – and then they taketh away.<\/p>\n

Latest Statistics NZ Monthly Employment Indicators<\/a> (MEI) figures show a 0.2% rise in filled jobs for August.<\/p>\n

However, Stats NZ has revised down the figures for both June and July that had previously showed rises – both of these months are now recorded as having a flat (neither a rise nor a fall) outcome.<\/p>\n

The figures are therefore painting a picture of a labour market that’s perhaps bottomed out – but isn’t yet showing too many signs of recovering.<\/p>\n

We have to be cautious with this data, since in recent times the monthly figures have almost invariably been revised down – so, the 0.2% rise currently recorded in filled jobs for August might not survive subsequent revisions.<\/p>\n

The MEI figures are not directly comparable with the official unemployment figures as they are sourced quite differently – coming from Inland Revenue data – but they nevertheless have tended to be quite a good indicator of future trends.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The last official unemployment figures, for the June quarter, came out on August 6 and showed the rate of unemployment rising to 5.2%<\/a> from 5.1%. The Reserve Bank (RBNZ) thinks it will go higher, to 5.3% in the quarter that’s about to end. Those figures are due to be released on November 5.<\/p>\n

Stats NZ said highlights of the job figures in August, compared (seasonally-adjusted) with the July 2025 month, were:<\/p>\n

all industries \u2013 up 0.2%\u00a0(4,814 jobs) to 2.35 million filled jobs
\n\tprimary industries \u2013 up 0.2%\u00a0(202 jobs)
\n\tgoods-producing industries \u2013 up 0.6%\u00a0(2,484 jobs)
\n\tservice industries \u2013 up 0.1%\u00a0(2,312 jobs).<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

ASB senior economist Mark Smith said it is early days but hiring data in recent months suggest that employment conditions are stabilising. “Much, however, will depend on the path of NZ economic activity.”<\/p>\n

Smith said recovering base economic momentum later in 2025 should see a pick-up in hiring and then see the unemployment rate recede before year end.<\/p>\n

“There is still significant spare capacity in the labour market, and it will take a concerted period of strong growth to push the unemployment rate down to the 4.0-4.5% Goldilocks zone. Given the lack of growth tailwinds apparent, we expect 75bp [basis points] of OCR [Official Cash Rate] cuts and a 2.25% OCR by year end as the RBNZ [Reserve Bank] provides more economic support to the economy and broader labour market,” Smith said.<\/p>\n

In terms of the actual figures when compared with a year ago, Stats NZ said in August 2025, there were 2.33 million actual filled jobs, down 17,442 jobs (0.7%), compared with August 2024.\u00a0<\/p>\n

By industry, the largest changes in the number of filled jobs compared with August 2024 were in:<\/p>\n

construction \u2013 down 5.1% (10,213 jobs)
\n\tprofessional, scientific, and technical services \u2013 down 2.7%\u00a0(5,116 jobs)
\n\thealth care and social assistance \u2013 up 1.7%\u00a0(4,829 jobs)
\n\taccommodation and food services \u2013 down 2.5%\u00a0(3,836 jobs)
\n\teducation and training \u2013 up 1.7%\u00a0(3,652 jobs).<\/p>\n

By region, the largest changes in the number of filled jobs compared with August 2024 were in:<\/p>\n

Auckland \u2013 down 1.3%\u00a0(10,201 jobs)
\n\tWellington \u2013 down 2.0%\u00a0(5,235 jobs)
\n\tCanterbury \u2013 up 0.6%\u00a0(1,852 jobs)
\n\tManawat\u016b-Whanganui \u2013 down 1.1%\u00a0(1,187 jobs)
\n\tHawke\u2019s Bay \u2013 down 1.4%\u00a0(1,108 jobs).<\/p>\n

Younger people have continued to bear the brunt of the downturn in the jobs market.<\/p>\n

By age group, the largest changes in the number of filled jobs compared with August 2024 were in:<\/p>\n

15 to 19 years \u2013 down 8.2%\u00a0(9,758 jobs)
\n\t25 to 29 years \u2013 down 3.5%\u00a0(8,726 jobs)
\n\t30 to 34 years \u2013 down 2.6%\u00a0(7,702 jobs)
\n\t20 to 24 years \u2013 down 3.0%\u00a0(6,451 jobs)
\n\t35 to 39 years \u2013 up 2.3%\u00a0(6,261 jobs).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"They giveth – and then they taketh away. Latest Statistics NZ Monthly Employment Indicators (MEI) figures show a…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":43850,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[114,85,46,265],"class_list":["post-43849","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-jobs","tag-business","tag-il","tag-israel","tag-jobs"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43849","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43849"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43849\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/43850"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43849"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43849"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43849"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}