But now there is rising concern this system itself is at risk \u2013 just when the world needs it most.<\/p>\n
The hidden system behind modern forecasting<\/p>\n
The GOOS is often described as a form of climate monitoring \u2013 but it is much more than that. It can best be understood as a network of complementary observing systems, each designed to capture different parts of the ocean in different ways.<\/p>\n
Some 4000 autonomous Argo robotic floats<\/a> sink every ten days down to 2000m depth, before rising to the surface to transmit temperature and salinity profiles to ground stations via satellite.<\/p>\n Underwater gliders target eddies<\/a>, coastal currents and continental margins where floats cannot go. Elephant seals fitted with sensors<\/a> collect data beneath polar sea ice in regions no other instrument can easily reach. <\/p>\n An elephant seal fitted with a sophisticated data collection device. The instruments drop off in moulting season. Each of these platforms answer questions the others cannot. And ocean observations collected by them now underpin many of the forecasting systems that modern societies rely on every day.<\/p>\n That includes the numerical weather models<\/a> used to generate daily forecasts, which continuously ingest ocean data to predict evolving weather conditions, as well as newer artificial intelligence-based forecasting systems.<\/p>\n The same is true for hurricane<\/a> and cyclone forecasts<\/a>, as well as seasonal forecasting<\/a> used to anticipate drought, harvests and energy demand. Marine heatwave warnings<\/a>, sea-level projections<\/a> and efforts to understand major current systems also rely on sustained long-term observations beneath the ocean surface.<\/p>\n These observations are key for monitoring El Ni\u00f1o<\/a> climate patterns \u2013 including a major event already underway<\/a> and likely to peak late this year \u2013 and major current systems such as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation<\/a>.<\/p>\n While satellites<\/a> can measure surface conditions, they still cannot directly observe the deeper waters where heat accumulates, currents reorganise and the precursors of future weather are already forming.<\/p>\n In short, the GOOS underpins everything from tomorrow\u2019s storm warnings to next century\u2019s climate adaptation plans.<\/p>\n Yet our newly published analysis<\/a> suggests the system delivering those observations is far more fragile than most people realise.<\/p>\n We found that if observations from a single major contributor, the United States, were withdrawn from GOOS, errors in estimates of how fast the ocean is warming would jump by 163% \u2013 worse than randomly losing 80% of all global ocean data.<\/p>\n The reason is largely geographical: US instruments cover every ocean basin and fill critical gaps no other nation currently monitors.<\/p>\n And this is no theoretical concern. Proposed cuts<\/a> to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Science Foundation in the United States now threaten exactly this contribution.<\/p>\n Elsewhere, observing systems are also under growing strain, with European programmes facing mounting funding pressure.<\/p>\n In China, scientists and policymakers are trying to build a more resilient national observing effort \u2013 but without the resources currently required to fully support it.<\/p>\n A resource the world can\u2019t afford to lose<\/p>\n The total annual cost<\/a> of operating the GOOS \u2013 across all platforms and personnel worldwide \u2013 is on the order of US$1.1 billion (about NZ$1.8 billion).<\/p>\n If that sounds expensive, consider that a single major hurricane season can cost<\/a> the United States hundreds of billions of dollars, while marine heatwaves have already collapsed fisheries<\/a> and triggered mass coral bleaching<\/a> around the world.<\/p>\n Compared with the economic damage linked to ocean-driven extreme weather and climate disruption, ocean observation is one of the highest-return public investments available.<\/p>\n The international scientific conference OceanObs’29<\/a>, to be held in China in three years\u2019 time, will be an opportunity to negotiate a more balanced global observing system \u2013 one better aligned with today\u2019s economic realities and maritime interests.<\/p>\n It should also encourage greater scientific cooperation among countries, helping ensure complementary observing networks collectively cover as much of the global ocean as possible.<\/p>\n Argo floats, like this one being deployed, are autonomous, robotic instruments that drift with ocean currents, moving up and down between the surface and mid-water depths. Maintaining that coverage requires constant renewal.<\/p>\n Argo floats typically last four to five years before their batteries fail. This means they must continually be deployed to prevent gaps emerging across the oceans.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/file-20260520-57-rhbxv3.jpg\")
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\n C McMahon\/IMOS, CC BY-NC-ND<\/a><\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/file-20260520-71-ry9b03.jpg\")
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\n M.Naumann\/IOW, CC BY-NC-ND<\/a><\/p>\n