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If there is one acting category that always has traction and attention, from who will get nominated to who ultimately prevails, it has always been that of Best Actress in a Leading Role.<\/p>\n
From ingenues to veterans, American sensations to International discoveries, it\u2019s undoubtedly one of, if not the most popular, races to watch annually. Although the track record has been spotty in the past, Best Actress has become a stronger predictor of the Best Picture category in recent years, with four of the past five winners having female leads, and three of those five having won both Lead Actress and the film\u2019s overall win. Suffice to say, in most circumstances going forward, whatever performance or film one has winning this category, it\u2019s likely to have a strong presence in the Best Picture category as a whole.<\/p>\n
Jessie Buckley and Hamnet\u2019s strength in Best Picture<\/p>\n
Coming out of the world premiere of Chlo\u00e9 Zhao\u2019s Hamnet at Telluride is easily an all-time favorite that will be part of the film festival\u2019s history, remembered years from now. What she has crafted is something that has lingered in my mind, a combination of what I could correlate to Terrence Malick\u2019s audacious, immersive vision, and Jane Campion\u2019s character exploration, and some director trademarks of hers found in 2017\u2019s The Rider and 2020\u2019s Nomadland, it\u2019s almost like a fairytale, something dream-like that sticks out visually. Zhao\u2019s work alongside \u017bal\u2019s cinematography is meant to evoke a sense of otherworldliness and isolation, which it succeeds in doing.<\/p>\n
However, as I have alluded to before, Hamnet\u2019s critical successes might become a hindrance to a wider audience. Zhao is not trying to give everyone the answers; she respects the audience\u2019s willingness to explore and ponder what her projects are expressing both thematically and cinematically. It\u2019s a film that doesn\u2019t hold the audience\u2019s hand through its more challenging moments, but the ones who love it and \u201cget it\u201d will never forget it.<\/p>\n
[editor\u2019s note: The book was a bestseller, winning Waterstones Book of the Year and the National Book Critics Circle Award, NY Times Notable Book and Best Book of the Year by The Guardian, Financial Times, Literary Hub, and NPR.]<\/p>\n
One aspect that everyone has singled out is undoubtedly that of Jessie Buckley\u2019s central performance, whose raw delivery and humane character are what make Hamnet whole. It\u2019s her story from the first frame until the very end, and its central theme of overcoming loss makes her role one that is easy to root for and empathize with, even if the narrative isn\u2019t afraid to make these characters morally complex. Combine that with her chemistry with Paul Mescal, and it\u2019s a well-centered character who the audience can emotionally connect to.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Suffice to say, many believe that Buckley is not only the frontrunner, but a strong #1, with no real opposition.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Pictured below is the Award Expert community<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
It isn\u2019t just her #1 position that is noticeable, but the percentage of people who believe she is prevailing (82%). She checks off the three major boxes: the likability of the star, the likability of the role, and the likability of the movie. Though no race is over until it\u2019s over, Buckley has a strong case to just coast through the season, either as the representative win FOR Hamnet, or a prelude to its wins in other above-the-line Oscars.<\/p>\n
Other people that the community is considering include Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Value, Cynthia Erivo in Wicked: For Good, Emma Stone in Bugonia, and Amanda Seyfried in The Testament of Ann Lee.<\/p>\n
For Seyfried, the problem with her film is a lack of a distributor as it enters the final quarter of the year. My #1 throughout the whole year (sight unseen) up until Telluride, the reviews no doubt point to a slot in the lineup, but with the window slowly closing, it seems more and more likely Fastvold\u2019s audacious vision might sit this race out, setting its sights on a 2026 release. Other performances being considered include Rose Byrne in If I Had Legs, I\u2019d Kick You, Jennifer Lawrence in Die, My Love, Julia Roberts in After the Hunt, Sydney Sweeney in Christy, and Tessa Thompson in Hedda.<\/p>\n
If I had to come up with my five, it would probably go something like this<\/p>\n
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
\nCynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
\nRenate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
\nEmma Stone, Bugonia
\nAmanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (if pushed to 2026, Rose Byrne)<\/p>\n
I believe the only person who could upset Buckley is Erivo, but even then, the strength of Hamnet would have to correlate with a win somewhere, and after seeing the film, and the reactions, this seems like the place to do it.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Oscar Predictions for September 29<\/p>\n
Not a ton of noticeable changes, but a few would be<\/p>\n
Springsteen out of Editing, Hamnet in for the time being
\nWeapons out of Casting, Hamnet in for the time being
\nIs This Thing On? In Original Screenplay over A House of Dynamite
\nTeyana Taylor is in for One Battle After Another over Gwyneth Paltrow for Marty Supreme
\nDue to a gut instinct, I have decided to put Paul Mescal in Best Actor for Hamnet as discussed on our podcast last week.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Best Picture<\/p>\n
One Battle After Another
\nSinners
\nHamnet
\nSentimental Value
\nMarty Supreme
\nWicked: For Good
\nIt Was Just An Accident
\nFrankenstein
\nThe Voice of Hind Rajab
\nSpringsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere<\/p>\n
Alts: The Netflix Trio (House of Dynamite, Jay Kelly, Wake Up Dead Man),\u00a0No Other Choice,\u00a0Is This Thing On?,\u00a0The Testament of Ann Lee,\u00a0Bugonia, and\u00a0Avatar: Fire and Ash)<\/p>\n
Best Director<\/p>\n
\u00a0Paul\u00a0Thomas\u00a0Anderson,\u00a0One\u00a0Battle\u00a0After\u00a0Another
\nChlo\u00e9 Zhao,\u00a0Hamnet
\nJoachim Trier,\u00a0Sentimental Value
\nJosh Safdie,\u00a0Marty Supreme
\nJafar Panahi,\u00a0It Was Just An Accident<\/p>\n
Alt:\u00a0Ryan Coogler,\u00a0Sinners, Park Chan-Wook, No Other Choice<\/p>\n
Best Actress<\/p>\n
Jessie Buckley,\u00a0Hamnet
\nCynthia Erivo,\u00a0Wicked: For Good
\nRenate Reinsve,\u00a0Sentimental Value
\nEmma Stone,\u00a0Bugonia
\nAmanda Seyfried,\u00a0The Testament of Ann Lee (if delayed, Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs, I\u2019d Kick You)<\/p>\n
Alt:\u00a0Rose Byrne,\u00a0If I Had Legs I\u2019d Kick You, Julia Roberts, After the Hunt<\/p>\n
Best Actor<\/p>\n
Timothe\u00e9 Chalamet,\u00a0Marty Supreme
\n\u00a0Leonardo DiCaprio,\u00a0One Battle After Another
\nJeremy Allen White,\u00a0Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
\nWagner Moura,\u00a0The Secret Agent
\nPaul Mescal,\u00a0Hamnet<\/p>\n
Alts:\u00a0Dwayne Johnson,\u00a0The Smashing Machine,\u00a0Michael B. Jordan,\u00a0Sinners<\/p>\n
Best Supporting Actress<\/p>\n
Amy Madigan,\u00a0Weapons
\nAriana Grande,\u00a0Wicked: For Good
\nTeyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
\nInga Ibsdotter Lilleaas,\u00a0Sentimental Value
\nElle Fanning,\u00a0Sentimental Value<\/p>\n
Alt:\u00a0Chase Infiniti,\u00a0One Battle After Another,\u00a0Emily Blunt,\u00a0The Smashing Machine<\/p>\n
Best Supporting Actor<\/p>\n
Stellan Skarsg\u00e5rd,\u00a0Sentimental Value
\n\u00a0Sean Penn,\u00a0One Battle After Another
\nAdam Sandler,\u00a0Jay Kelly
\nJeremy Strong,\u00a0Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
\n\u00a0Delroy Lindo,\u00a0Sinners<\/p>\n
Alt:\u00a0Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein<\/p>\n
Best Original Screenplay<\/p>\n
Sinners
\nSentimental Value
\nIt Was Just An Accident
\nMarty Supreme
\nIs This Thing On<\/p>\n
Alt: A House of Dynamite, Jay Kelly<\/p>\n
Best Adapted Screenplay<\/p>\n
One Battle After Another
\nHamnet
\nBugonia
\nWake Up Dead Man
\nNo Other Choice<\/p>\n
Alt: Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere<\/p>\n
Best Casting<\/p>\n
Sinners
\nOne Battle After Another
\nMarty Supreme
\nSpringsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
\nHamnet<\/p>\n
Alt: Weapons, Wake Up Dead Man, Jay Kelly, Sentimental Value<\/p>\n
Best International Feature<\/p>\n
Sentimental Value
\nIt Was Just An Accident
\nThe Voice of Hind Rajab
\nThe Secret Agent
\nNo Other Choice<\/p>\n
(Alt: Sir\u00e2t)<\/p>\n
Best Documentary Feature<\/p>\n
The Perfect Neighbor
\nCutting Through Rocks
\nSeeds
\n2000 Meters to Andriivka
\nThe Cycle of Love<\/p>\n
(Alt: Mr. Nobody Against Putin) \u00a0<\/p>\n
Best Animated Feature<\/p>\n
Kpop Demon Hunters
\nZootopia 2
\nArco
\nLittle Am\u00e9lie or the Character of Rain
\nA Magnificent Life<\/p>\n
(Alt: Elio)<\/p>\n
Best Cinematography<\/p>\n
Hamnet
\nSinners
\nOne Battle After Another
\nMarty Supreme
\nFrankenstein<\/p>\n
Best Editing<\/p>\n
One Battle After Another
\nMarty Supreme
\nSinners
\nHamnet
\nSentimental Value<\/p>\n
Best Production Design<\/p>\n
Frankenstein
\nWicked: For Good
\nAvatar: Fire and Ash
\nSinners
\nHamnet<\/p>\n
Best Costume Design<\/p>\n
Wicked: For Good
\nFrankenstein
\nSinners
\nHamnet
\nThe Testament of Ann Lee (Marty Supreme if this is delayed)<\/p>\n
Best Makeup and Hairstyling<\/p>\n
Frankenstein
\nWicked: For Good
\nThe Smashing Machine
\n28 Years Later
\nWolf Man<\/p>\n
Best Visual Effects<\/p>\n
Avatar: Fire and Ash
\nWicked: For Good
\nSuperman
\nMission Impossible \u2013 The Final Reckoning
\nF1<\/p>\n
Best Sound<\/p>\n
One Battle After Another
\nSinners
\nF1
\nWicked: For Good
\nSpringsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere<\/p>\n
Best Score<\/p>\n
One Battle After Another
\nSinners
\nFrankenstein
\nMarty Supreme
\nHamnet<\/p>\n
Best Song<\/p>\n
No Place Like Home from\u00a0Wicked: For Good
\nDear Me\u00a0from\u00a0Diane Warren Relentless
\nGolden\u00a0from\u00a0KPop Demon Hunters
\nI Lied to You\u00a0from\u00a0Sinners
\nGirl In a Bubble from Wicked: For Good<\/p>\n
If you want to follow me on Twitter (x), the link is\u00a0here<\/a><\/p>\n