{"id":472254,"date":"2026-06-02T11:46:12","date_gmt":"2026-06-02T11:46:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/472254\/"},"modified":"2026-06-02T11:46:12","modified_gmt":"2026-06-02T11:46:12","slug":"tehran-risks-its-own-economy-with-self-harming-uae-strikes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/472254\/","title":{"rendered":"Tehran risks its own economy with self-harming UAE strikes"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Islamic Republic\u2019s attacks on the United Arab Emirates<\/a>, a key trading partner for Tehran, are a sign of \u201cstrategic desperation,\u201d two experts on the region explained to The Jerusalem Post on Monday night.<\/p>\n

In late March, the UAE\u2019s defense ministry confirmed its air defenses engaged 357 ballistic missiles, 15 cruise missiles, and 1,815 drones, and sporadic attacks on the country have continued despite the current pause in the majority of regional hostilities.<\/p>\n

While the UAE bore the vast brunt of attacks on Gulf nations, presumably as it is a member of the Abraham Accords, international relations expert Dr. Arman Mahmoudian, a research associate at the University of South Florida\u2019s Center for Strategic & Diplomatic Studies, explained to the\u00a0Post that the country is an essential financial hub for Tehran<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Beyond its role as a major trading partner, the UAE serves as one of Iran\u2019s principal sanctions-evasion hubs, Mahmoudian said. Over the years, the US Treasury has sanctioned numerous UAE-based companies and financial institutions for facilitating Iranian petroleum and petrochemical exports, enabling the transfer of funds to Iran, and helping Tehran evade international sanctions.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe UAE has been a strategic partner for Iran\u2019s economy,\u201d he stressed, adding that the regime must have \u201ccalculated\u201d its survival would necessitate damaging financial relations.<\/p>\n

\"SmokeSmoke and flames rise from an energy installation in the Gulf emirate of Fujairah on March 14, 2026. (credit: AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES)<\/p>\n

The UAE exported $5.78 billion to Iran in 2023, and Iran $453 million in return, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity. Additionally, in the Persian year that ended on March 20, 2025, the volume of non-oil trade between the countries reached a record $29.1 billion, according to the financial outlet Calcalist.<\/p>\n

Tehran’s economy is compromised by its own strikes against the UAE<\/p>\n

Dr. Kristian Alexander, a senior fellow and lead researcher at the Emirates-based Rabdan Security and Defense Institute and an advisor at Gulf States Analytics, assessed much the same as Mahmoudian, explaining that \u201cTehran prioritized coercive signaling over economic self-preservation.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cHeavy strikes against UAE infrastructure risk undermining one of Tehran\u2019s own economic escape valves. In that sense, the attacks were coercive but also self-harming,\u201d he noted.<\/p>\n

Tehran\u2019s \u201clogic\u201d largely seemed to be based on the understanding that the \u201cUAE\u2019s value as a global trading, aviation, port, energy, and investment hub makes it vulnerable to disruption,\u201d and such disruptions would \u201cdemonstrate that any war against Iran would endanger the economic model of the entire Gulf,\u201d Alexander said.<\/p>\n

Though Alexander acknowledged Tehran had made some calculations, he commented that the regime had likely underestimated or \u201cmisread\u201d the UAE, which, in the face of constant barrages, had little choice but to consider \u201cIranian commercial networks as a security vulnerability.\u201d<\/p>\n

In March, authorities made the decision to shutter an Iranian state-affiliated hospital in Dubai. An official told The Financial Times that the decision was made over concerns the institution would be \u201cmisused to advance agendas that do not serve the Iranian people and in violation of UAE laws.\u201d<\/p>\n

The site also reported that several Iranian state-linked schools had also been closed down on the orders of the UAE authorities. The Wall Street Journal also reported that the UAE struck Iran in March.<\/p>\n

The recent actions taken by the UAE have not followed its typical pattern of response to Tehran, Alexander noted, referencing how Abu Dhabi has prioritized diplomatic and legal processes in response to disagreements with Tehran.<\/p>\n

In the longstanding dispute over Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunbs, the three islands occupied by Iran since 1971, \u00a0the Emirati governments have repeatedly called for bilateral negotiations or referral of the dispute to the International Court of Justice, he exemplified.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe UAE has historically separated economic pragmatism from political disagreement. Abu Dhabi kept channels open with Tehran even during periods of sanctions pressure, tanker attacks, the Yemen war, and disputes over the islands.<\/p>\n

But direct attacks on the UAE\u2019s economic infrastructure blur the line between commerce and security. Iranian-linked businesses, financial channels, shipping networks, and expatriate structures will now face much closer scrutiny,\u201d he explained.<\/p>\n

Mahmoudian, however, suggested that Tehran had been prepared to pay the price for attacks on its neighbors, claiming the \u201cdeterioration\u201d was seen as necessary \u201ccollateral damage,\u201d understanding that it had a greater chance of defeating the United States with economic coercion than with military warfare.<\/p>\n

He noted that regional actors took similar actions, shutting down Iranian exchange centers, restricting Iranian bank accounts, canceling visas, and, in some cases, deporting Iranian businessmen during Mahmoud Ahmadinejad\u2019s presidency; thus, such an outcome would have been predictable.<\/p>\n

\u201cBy attacking economic targets in the region, Iran was trying to increase pressure on energy markets and energy prices. Even when some of the targets were not directly related to oil and gas, attacks on countries that are major energy producers, especially in oil- and gas-rich regions such as the Middle East and the Persian Gulf, still create pressure on global energy markets,\u201d Mahmoudian explained.<\/p>\n

Moody\u2019s Analytics data shared exclusively with CNBC found that the war with Iran has already imposed high costs on American consumers, with the average US household spending an additional $447 on fuel-related expenses since the conflict began in February. Additionally, airline fares rose by more than 20% in April compared with 12 months ago, federal government inflation data shows.<\/p>\n

Consumer goods, industrial components, machinery, electronics, pharmaceuticals<\/p>\n

\u201cUnless the war ends soon, financially pressed consumers will have no option but to turn more cautious in their spending, threatening the already soft economy,\u201d Mark Zandi, Moody\u2019s chief economist, told CNBC.<\/p>\n

While experts have predicted that an extension in the conflict would harm the American economy, Mahmoudian made clear that Tehran\u2019s own would not be spared.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf Iran and the United States resume the war, or if the current conflict does not end with a deal, I believe the chances of Iran restoring its trade partnership with the UAE will remain minimal,\u201d he predicted.<\/p>\n

Alexander stressed that if Gulf states tighten restrictions on Iranian-linked businesses, shipping companies, financial intermediaries, and re-export networks, \u201cthe cost of importing goods into Iran will rise significantly,\u201d which would only further harm an Iranian economy already suffering from inflation.<\/p>\n

\u201cMany consumer goods, industrial components, machinery, electronics, pharmaceuticals, and intermediate products reach Iran through Gulf trading hubs,\u201d Alexander highlighted. \u201cAny disruption to these supply chains increases costs for Iranian businesses and consumers alike.\u201d<\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s worsening economic conditions had already sparked nationwide protests in January, which were met with a harsh crackdown by the regime\u2019s security forces.<\/p>\n

Since then, the war has further strained the economy. The US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz<\/a> fueled inflation and disrupted trade, while the regime\u2019s three-month internet shutdown deprived countless Iranians of their livelihoods, exacerbating an already severe cost-of-living crisis.<\/p>\n

Tehran\u2019s official statistics center reported in April that annual inflation was 53.7%, while inflation for food breached 115% compared with the same period last year.<\/p>\n

Even if Tehran makes a formal agreement with Washington, Alexander predicted that the damage would threaten investment in the region.<\/p>\n

Labeled as an \u201cunstable\u201d region, the Gulf<\/a> can expect to struggle to build international commercial relationships or attract foreign capital \u201cat a time when Tehran is seeking economic recovery.\u201d Tehran\u2019s attacks on its neighbors will likely manifest as a \u201cself-inflicted wound\u201d demonstrating \u00a0\u201cIran’s military reach\u201d while discrediting it in the eyes of stakeholders.<\/p>\n

Though the UAE and other Gulf nations would be difficult to replace, other countries may seek to fill the vacuum. Turkey, Pakistan, and Iraq will likely increase trade, though none of the aforementioned countries is as economically stable.<\/p>\n

Ankara may have a particular interest in covert involvement with Tehran, Mahmoudian theorized, noting that a destabilized regime could empower Turkish groups and create further weight to its own \u201cKurdish question.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cTurkey is an important commercial partner, but it is geographically less convenient for Gulf-facing trade and subject to its own political considerations,\u201d Alexander said. He noted that the UAE\u2019s role as a \u201csanctions-adaptation platform\u201d would be difficult to replace, adding that it would take Iran \u201cyears, not months\u201d to replicate the functions the Emirates currently provides.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Islamic Republic\u2019s attacks on the United Arab Emirates, a key trading partner for Tehran, are a sign…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":472255,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[42,1037,87,91,43,31671,40,38,41,39,3793,1078],"class_list":["post-472254","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-headlines","tag-headlines","tag-interview","tag-iran","tag-iran-israel-war","tag-news","tag-strike","tag-top-news","tag-top-stories","tag-topnews","tag-topstories","tag-trade","tag-uae"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/472254","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=472254"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/472254\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/472255"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=472254"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=472254"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=472254"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}