{"id":475757,"date":"2026-06-04T11:00:08","date_gmt":"2026-06-04T11:00:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/475757\/"},"modified":"2026-06-04T11:00:08","modified_gmt":"2026-06-04T11:00:08","slug":"who-would-england-be-likely-to-play-if-they-reach-the-world-cup-final-world-cup-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/475757\/","title":{"rendered":"Who would England be likely to play if they reach the World Cup final? | World Cup 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

Who will England have to beat to win the World Cup<\/a> for the first time since 1966? We can\u2019t predict the future but, with the help of the Opta supercomputer, we can give a probabilistic estimate of what could happen. Let\u2019s establish the \u201cwhat if\u201d scenarios and map out England\u2019s potential route to the final.<\/p>\n

Group stage<\/p>\n

England are the top seeds in Group L alongside Croatia, Ghana and Panama. On the face of it, it is a kind draw, and the Opta supercomputer\u2019s numbers reflect that. Across its 10,000 tournament simulations, England made it through to the knockout stage 96% of the time and won the group in 67.9% of simulations. They are the third-likeliest side to win their group behind only Spain (75.3%) and Argentina<\/a> (73.0%).<\/p>\n

The supercomputer is less certain about who will qualify alongside England<\/a>, but Croatia are deemed the next-most likely (77.8%) above Ghana (49.7%) and Panama (39.4%).<\/p>\n

With eight teams able to qualify for the last 32 having finished third in their group, there is a strong chance only one team from Group L will be sent packing. In fact, just 12 of the 48 teams at the World Cup will be knocked out in the group stage.<\/p>\n

If England top their group, they will face one of the eight third-placed teams in the next round. The winners of Group L will face a third-place finisher from Group E, H, I, J or K.<\/p>\n

Last 32: England v DR Congo<\/p>\n

The teams most likely to finish third in these groups are C\u00f4te d\u2019Ivoire (Group E), Saudi Arabia (H), Senegal (I), Algeria (J) and DR Congo (K). Predicting who England will face in the last 32 is hard considering the 495 possible combinations, but the winners of Group L end up playing the third-placed team from Group K in 330 of them (66.7%). England are most likely to come up against DR Congo on 1 July in Atlanta.<\/p>\n

DR Congo have only appeared in one previous World Cup, in 1974 as Zaire, when they lost all three games, failed to score and conceded 14 times. A lot has changed since then but the omens for them would not be great. England have played eight matches against African sides at World Cups and have never lost (five wins and three draws), including a 3-0 win over Senegal at the last tournament in 2022. If England were to beat DR Congo, they would face co-hosts Mexico<\/a> in Mexico City on 5 July.<\/p>\n

Last 16: England v Mexico<\/p>\n

What a test this would be for England. Mexico are the likeliest side to top Group A (47.8%) and will expect to defeat a third-place qualifier in the round of 32. That would mean England taking on Mexico in front of a partisan crowd at the Azteca in the capital.<\/p>\n

England\u2019s only previous World Cup meeting with Mexico came in similar circumstances, just with roles reversed. England were hosts when the teams met in the group stage in 1966, a match England won 2-0.<\/p>\n

England have faced three World Cup hosts. They lost 2-1 to Italy in the 1990 third-place playoff but kept a clean sheet in group matches against Spain<\/a> (0-0) in 1982 and Switzerland (2-0) in 1954.<\/p>\n

Facing Mexico is far from a given, though. Group A does not contain any of the world\u2019s top 20 teams so could be very open and unpredictable. Mexico are the favourites to win that group, but South Africa, South Korea or Czechia could come up against England instead.<\/p>\n

Quarter-final: England v Brazil<\/p>\n

According to our projections, England would most likely face Brazil<\/a> in the quarter-finals on 11 July in New Jersey. Brazil have won the tournament five times \u2013 a record no other country can match \u2013 but they have not won it in 24 years. That wait is not as long as England\u2019s 60 years, though it\u2019s significant.<\/p>\n

If England progress to the semi-finals, there is a strong chance they will have to beat Brazil at an international tournament for the first time. England\u2019s previous four meetings with Brazil have seen them draw once, in the 1958 group stage, and lose in 1962, 1970 and 2002. Two of those \u2013 1962 and 2002 \u2013 were in quarter-finals, with the last featuring Ronaldinho\u2019s infamous lob over David Seaman from long range in Japan. A victory in the quarter-finals would take England into the semi-finals for just the fourth time.<\/p>\n

Semi-final: England v Argentina<\/p>\n

A win over Brazil could set up a semi-final with Argentina on 15 July in Miami. The Opta supercomputer projects that both Argentina and England will be two of the four teams in the World Cup semi-finals 9.2% of the time. For that to happen, both would have to win their group and then progress through three knockout rounds.<\/p>\n

England\u2019s previous World Cup clashes with Argentina have been packed with incident and controversy. This would be England\u2019s first tournament match against Argentina since David Beckham scored a match-winning penalty in their 2002 group-stage clash in the Sapporo Dome. It was redemption for Beckham, who was sent off for kicking Diego Simeone<\/a> in a last-16 tie in 1998 that Argentina eventually won on penalties.<\/p>\n

In 1986, Diego Maradona\u2019s famous \u201cHand of God<\/a>\u201d goal was followed by his superb solo \u201cGoal of the Century<\/a>\u201d to knock England out at the quarter-final stage. Twenty years earlier, England beat Argentina in the quarter-finals at Wembley, where the Argentina captain, Antonio Ratt\u00edn, was sent off but refused to leave the pitch.<\/p>\n

To continue their journey in this tournament, England may have to do something that no other team has managed in World Cup history: beat Argentina in a semi-final. They have played five semi-finals \u2013 in 1930, 1986, 1990, 2014 and 2022 \u2013 and have won them all.<\/p>\n

England have been eliminated in their last two World Cup semi-finals, losing to Croatia in 2018 and being defeated on penalties by West Germany in 1990. They have only played in one World Cup final and they won it.<\/p>\n

Final: England v Spain<\/p>\n

So, could England end their 60 years of hurt and lift the trophy for a second time? Thomas Tuchel\u2019s side reached the final in nearly a fifth of the Opta supercomputer\u2019s pre-tournament simulations (19.0%), going on to win it 11.2% of the time. The only two teams to win the World Cup more often across the simulations were Spain (16.1%) and France (13.0%).<\/p>\n

England faced Spain in the final in 4.8% of the 10,000 pre-tournament simulations. It would be a repeat of the Euro 2024 final, which Spain won 2-1<\/a> thanks to Mikel Oyarzabal\u2019s 86th-minute winner. England have won just one of their last five meetings with Spain \u2013 a Nations League match in October 2018, when England raced into a 3-0 lead before holding off a Spain comeback to win 3-2. Will England avenge their Euro 2024 final defeat and repeat the success of 1966? We\u2019ll soon find out.<\/p>\n

This is an article by Opta Analyst<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Who will England have to beat to win the World Cup for the first time since 1966? We…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":475758,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[85,46,105],"class_list":["post-475757","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-sports","tag-il","tag-israel","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/475757","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=475757"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/475757\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/475758"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=475757"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=475757"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=475757"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}