For the past five years, Texas ranchers have been struggling against drought.\u00a0<\/p>\n
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Now, those with cattle to sell are finding a bright spot\u00a0\u2014 but it\u2019s one causing pain for consumers and politicians. It\u2019s not a clear win for ranchers, either.<\/p>\n
Despite dried-up pastures and shrunken-down herds, ranchers like Lew Thompson, who runs nearly 3,000 head near Pearsall, are reaping what he called \u201cprolific sales.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n
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\u201cUsually when the drought is on, you just keep getting kicked in the teeth on the price,\u201d Thompson said.\u00a0\u201cWe have a very unusual situation.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n
READ MORE:Are groceries in San Antonio getting more expensive? See for yourself.<\/a><\/p>\n This time around, ranchers are cashing in cattle for all-time high prices as inventory in the United States has plummeted<\/a> to 75-year lows.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n The result is retail prices that have surged more than 18% from a year ago, pushing the average price of a pound of ground beef in American cities to $6.90 in April, the highest on record. A year earlier, it was $5.80, also a record. As recently as early 2021, the price was less than $4.\u00a0<\/p>\n Prices are projected to keep rising, too, with\u00a0the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasting<\/a> another 10.1% increase by the end of the year.\u00a0<\/p>\n Ranchers aren\u2019t reaping all the price increases in profit, though. Their margins are being squeezed by difficulties spurred by the lingering drought and record-high costs for feed, fuel, fertilizer, equipment and supplies as Trump administration tariffs, war and persistent inflation take their toll.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Thompson, for example, said his costs are up about 25% in recent years, wiping out the 12% average increase in cattle sale prices seen across the U.S. in the past year.\u00a0<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n Cattle wait for the sales prior to the weekly cattle auction at Karnes City Auction on Wednesday, May 13, 2026.<\/p>\n Katina Zentz\/San Antonio Express-News<\/p>\n Beef prices rise as cattle herds shrink<\/p>\n The steadily rising prices are rattling consumers and, increasingly, elected officials who are beginning to understand the political impact of declining affordability in the U.S.<\/p>\n This spring, a group of congressional Democrats introduced a bill designed to break up the heavily consolidated U.S. meat industry, which they blamed for a lack of competition and high prices. Later, the U.S. Justice Department said it was investigating potential antitrust violations in the cattle and beef industry. Then, Texas Attorney General Ken\u00a0Paxton said his office was launching its own investigation.\u00a0<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n \u201cTexans deserve fairly priced beef and our state\u2019s cattle ranchers deserve to be paid fairly for their hard work,\u201d Paxton said in a statement. \u201cIf major meatpackers manipulated the market to underpay ranchers while forcing families to pay higher prices at the grocery store, we will hold them accountable.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n The major meatpackers\u00a0\u2014 the U.S. beef market is dominated by four companies\u00a0\u2014 have remained silent on the antitrust allegations.\u00a0<\/p>\n The Meat Institute, an industry group, responded to the federal investigation by saying the industry is already heavily regulated and transparent. It asserted that beef packers also have been losing money and that the processors \u201cwelcome a fact-based discussion about beef affordability and how best to meet the needs of American consumers.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n Economists, though, suggest the rising prices are simply a reality of declining U.S. supply amid the drought, higher land prices, urbanization, aging ranchers and escalating prices for everything from feed and fences to calves and cows.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n As of early January, according to USDA data, there were about 86 million cattle and calves in the United States. Texas, the state with by far the largest herd, had about 12 million. Both figures represent historic lows: The latest U.S. herd size is the smallest since the early 1950s, and the Texas herd is among its smallest in decades. \u00a0<\/p>\n Buyers and sellers watch the weekly cattle auction at Karnes City Auction on Wednesday, May 13, 2026.<\/p>\n Katina Zentz\/San Antonio Express-News<\/p>\n \u201cIt really comes down to the U.S. cattle herd shrinking,\u201d said Emily Kerr, a senior business economist at the Dallas Fed.\u00a0\u201cWhen you have fewer cattle, fewer cattle going into slaughter, I mean that just really squeezes the supply side of beef production.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n Most of the beef the U.S. consumes comes off feedlots with cattle from producers large and small. Large cattle ranches may produce thousands of head a year while smaller producers may bring from five to 20 for finishing.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n The loss of those smaller producers is adding up, said Brad\u00a0Reiley, manager of Seguin-based Producers Co-op. And when enough of the smaller producers disappear, it strains supply.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s the straw that broke the camel\u2019s back,\u201d he said of drought-stricken ranchers throwing in the towel. \u201cYou get enough of these little ones and then boom, all of a sudden, it\u2019s like\u00a0\u2014 where are the numbers that we need to feed the U.S.?\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n Sutton Albert sits on a fence while watching over the livestock prior to the weekly cattle auction at Karnes City Auction on Wednesday, May 13, 2026.<\/p>\n Katina Zentz\/San Antonio Express-News Alfred Grollimund looks down at his dog Cotton during the weekly cattle auction at Karnes City Auction on Wednesday May 13, 2026.<\/p>\n Katina Zentz\/San Antonio Express-News Lee Meyer raises a hand during the weekly cattle auction at Karnes City Auction on Wednesday, May 13, 2026.<\/p>\n Katina Zentz\/San Antonio Express-News<\/p>\n Drought squeezes ranchers despite record cattle prices<\/p>\n Bryan Davis<\/a> is the south region area chief in the Disaster Assessment & Recovery Unit of Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service<\/a>. As a fourth-generation rancher with his own herd, he said he appreciates the higher cattle prices.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n \u201cBut at the same time, our input costs are greater than they\u2019ve ever been\u00a0\u2014 for feed, for gas, for the energy that it takes to grow a crop and then also to get it harvested,\u201d said Davis, who estimated his costs in some cases have quadrupled.\u00a0<\/p>\n RELATED:\u00a0Iran war drives up fertilizer and fuel costs for already-struggling Texas farmers<\/a><\/p>\n Before the drought, Davis could get two or three cuttings a year from his hay fields to be used as feed. In the past two years, he\u2019s gotten just one, requiring him to spend more to feed his cattle.<\/p>\n Since pastures and hay fields began drying up earlier this decade, Texans have been forfeiting production, selling off their herds and, in some cases, even their land. But ranchers like Davis, whose family has been perfecting its herd\u2019s genetic base for 30 years, are being forced to pay record prices for forage to keep animals alive.\u00a0<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n \u201cWe had the most rain last week since last October.\u201d Bryan Davis, a fourth-generation rancher, said while he herds his cattle to feed them on Wednesday, April 29, 2026, in Marion, Texas. A drought over the last few years has impacted local reachers like Davis, who have been already struggling to stay afloat.<\/p>\n Andrew J. Whitaker\/San Antonio Express-News Bryan Davis tears his hay bale to feed his cattle on Wednesday, April 29, 2026, in Marion, Texas.<\/p>\n Andrew J. Whitaker\/San Antonio Express-News<\/p>\n Davis said his wife\u2019s family has been on the land on the far Northeast Side of San Antonio since the late 1940s. That was prior to the devastating 1950s drought, a benchmark the current drought is increasingly being compared to.\u00a0<\/p>\n Paul\u00a0Bertetti, senior director of the Edwards Aquifer Authority<\/a>, said this is \u201cat least the second worst\u201d drought the water management agency has recorded since its creation in the mid 1990s. While the current drought is still a few years shy of the eight-year span of the 1950s drought, water levels at the start of April were the lowest they\u2019ve ever been at this time of year\u00a0\u2014 including during the 1950s.\u00a0<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n \u201cA lot of the old farmers and ranchers talk about that drought still to this day in the coffee shops,\u201d Davis said. \u201cThe drought of the \u201850s and how many people sold out and lost their land.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Ranchers take a break in the cafe during the weekly cattle auction at Karnes City Auction on Wednesday, May 13, 2026.<\/p>\n Katina Zentz\/San Antonio Express-News<\/p>\n Like that one, the current drought has been a reality for years, though its exact start date is debatable. The Edwards Aquifer Authority characterizes drought by low water levels that require pumping restrictions. Using that definition, it started in 2022 \u2014 the same year many ranchers began selling off herds they could no longer feed or water.\u00a0<\/p>\n FROM 2022: Busy cattle auctions warn of drought\u2019s tightening grip on Texas agriculture<\/a><\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n But\u00a0Bertetti said the current water deficit began in 2019.\u00a0<\/p>\n Since that year, there has been a 65-inch deficit in rainfall, he said, amounting to more than two typical years of rain. Farther west, past\u00a0Bandera County and Uvalde, water has been scarce since the early 2010s.\u00a0<\/p>\n Bryan Davis shows off a dessert termite tunnel, which is a drought sign ranchers look for in the ground, on Wednesday, April 29, 2026, in Marion, Texas.<\/p>\n Andrew J. Whitaker\/San Antonio Express-News<\/p>\n \u2018Needs to be\u00a0more\u2019<\/p>\n Whenever it began, the\u00a0drought that\u2019s been drying out South and Central Texas since early this decade has also begun to parch the usually hopeful nature of\u00a0self-proclaimed optimist Reiley, himself a small producer.\u00a0<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n \u201cI\u2019m starting to really see the hurt and pain that a lot of people are dealing with,\u201d he said.\u00a0<\/p>\n For small producers like\u00a0him and the ranchers he works with on a daily basis at Producers Co-op, the drought drives an uncertainty that is tough to navigate.<\/p>\n \u201cWhat these people are doing on a daily basis is no different than going to a Las Vegas casino,\u201d Reiley said. \u201cThey\u2019re throwing hard-earned money, or money from the bank, putting it out there on the line, with no guaranteed payback.\u201d<\/p>\n Motorists drive by Producers Co-Op Feed Mill in Seguin on Tuesday, May 12, 2026.<\/p>\n Katina Zentz\/San Antonio Express-News Dean Mills, forklift operator and truck driver, walks by bags of feed at Producers Co-Op Feed Mill in Seguin on Tuesday, May 12, 2026.<\/p>\n Katina Zentz\/San Antonio Express-News Zach Cowan, feed mill manager, left, speaks with Brad Reiley, general manager, at the Producers Co-Op Feed Mill in Seguin on Tuesday, May 12, 2026.<\/p>\n Katina Zentz\/San Antonio Express-News<\/p>\n RELATED:\u00a0Has recent heavy rainfall raised South Texas lake levels? Here\u2019s the new update.<\/a><\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n Weather is among the factors they\u2019re betting on.<\/p>\n Robert Mace, executive director of the Meadows Center for Water and Environment at Texas State University, said the severity of the current drought does rival that of the 1950s but he noted a key difference. Because of climate change, a typical Texas day now is warmer than the hottest years of the drought during the 1950s or during the 1930s Dust Bowl. That results in soil moisture burning off faster than it did back then, leaving less water rolling off the landscape into rivers and reservoirs.<\/p>\n Even downpours like the 6-inch dump of rain<\/a> in South Texas in late April is not enough to recover from the drought conditions.<\/p>\n \u201cYou really need a change in the weather pattern to pull ranchers and farmers out of drought,\u201d Mace said. \u201cIt needs to be more than one giant freak storm.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n While heavy rain and flooding can top off reservoirs, he said, the impact can be short-lived. Deadly flooding in the Hill Country last July did exactly that, filling up reservoirs upstream of Austin. But the flooding was followed by the same high temperatures and lack of rainfall, reverting back to the conditions farmers and ranchers have been struggling with\u00a0\u2014 dwindling herds lacking grass to graze. \u00a0<\/p>\n READ MORE:\u00a0Yes, it rained. But did that ease San Antonio\u2019s long-running drought?<\/a><\/p>\n \u201cThat can cause lingering impacts to those ranchers, because it takes a while to build a herd back up,\u201d Mace said. \u201cThat has impacts for what you and I pay for a hamburger. It has impacts on the beef market, quite frankly, even across the globe.\u201d<\/p>\n Mace said that there\u2019s about a 70% chance South Texas will enter El Ni\u00f1o conditions this year, resulting in a cooler and wetter climate. But those effects won\u2019t hit until fall or winter.\u00a0<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n \u201cIf we can hold out to the fall, the odds are in our favor that we\u2019ll see a wetter than normal season over Christmas,\u201d he\u00a0said.<\/p>\n But it will require several weeks of consistent rainfall supported by overcast days to overcome the soil moisture deficit.<\/p>\n Bertetti said it will take two or three years to know if Texas is out of the current drought, though.\u00a0<\/p>\n Mario Salizar, left, Bryan Garcia both from New Berlin look at the Cibolo Creek after recent heavy rainfall on Wednesday, April 29, 2026, in Marion, Texas.<\/p>\n Andrew J. Whitaker\/San Antonio Express-News<\/p>\n RELATED:\u00a0<\/a>How a rancher and a nonprofit teamed up to protect 6,600 acres of Texas prairie<\/a><\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n Until then, ranchers are being strategic to stay afloat. Thompson has drawn his cattle in tighter, leaving 21,000 acres of pasture vacant in\u00a0Frio County. By pulling his herd into smaller pastures rather than grazing, he\u2019s able to better care for them and manage their feed supply. Davis sells directly to customers, cutting out some of the middle-man costs.\u00a0<\/p>\n For the past 20 years, he said AgriLife Extension has been doing rainwater harvesting and talking to landowners about the benefits. It\u2019s a practice that is becoming more prevalent in San Antonio, Davis said, and a practice that he inherited from his grandmother.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cShe learned in the drought of the \u201850s,\u201d Davis said. \u201cEvery drop matters.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n Bryan Davis drives his truck to his cattle to feed them on Wednesday, April 29, 2026, in Marion, Texas.<\/p>\n Andrew J. Whitaker\/San Antonio Express-News<\/p>\n Trevor Bach contributed to this report.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"For the past five years, Texas ranchers have been struggling against drought.\u00a0 Now, those with cattle to sell…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":481317,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[41700,242,85,46,141],"class_list":["post-481316","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-environment","tag-austinlatest","tag-environment","tag-il","tag-israel","tag-science"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/481316","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=481316"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/481316\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/481317"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=481316"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=481316"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=481316"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}<\/p>\n
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