{"id":484043,"date":"2026-06-09T14:53:07","date_gmt":"2026-06-09T14:53:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/484043\/"},"modified":"2026-06-09T14:53:07","modified_gmt":"2026-06-09T14:53:07","slug":"here-are-10-ways-a-super-el-nino-could-impact-the-planet-benjamin-selwyn","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/484043\/","title":{"rendered":"Here are 10 ways a \u2018super\u2019 El Ni\u00f1o could impact the planet | Benjamin Selwyn"},"content":{"rendered":"

A powerful, or \u201csuper\u201d El Ni\u00f1o \u2013 marked by 2C (3.6F) or greater increase in sea surface temperatures \u2013 is now highly probable<\/a> for this year, lasting into 2027. Weakened trade winds allow warm surface waters to spread across the central and eastern Pacific. This disrupts ocean circulation and alters weather patterns worldwide.<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o is intensifying an already unequal global economy. Food<\/a> insecurity is not simply a climatic problem, but rooted in dependency and global market integration, while climate shocks expose how supply chains push risk onto the world\u2019s poorest populations.<\/p>\n

What follows are 10 potential worst-case scenarios \u2013 impacts that will not be evenly felt but disproportionately borne by poorer farmers and workers.<\/p>\n

Drought<\/p>\n

Drought hits rain-fed agricultural regions particularly hard. In parts of sub-Saharan Africa grain yields often fall during and following El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s, increasing import dependence and raising food prices.<\/a> This time around, El Ni\u00f1o will occur during an already-existing fertilizer crisis caused by the closure of the strait of Hormuz, leading to warnings about extreme hunger and famine<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Shock to global food supply chains<\/p>\n

Globally, there is a heightened risk of a shock to global food supply chains. Four crops \u2013 wheat, rice, maize and soybeans \u2013 provide more than 60% of the world\u2019s calorie intake<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Maize and rice<\/a> are especially sensitive to El Ni\u00f1o, with drought and disrupted monsoons reducing yields in major producers such as South Africa, India, Indonesia, Vietnam and Brazil. Wheat is affected by heat and drought in key exporters like Australia, Canada and China, while soybean production has fallen in countries such as Brazil and Argentina.<\/p>\n

Wildfire risk<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o can heighten wildfire risk in some regions. In South America, it often reduces wet\u2011season rainfall, leaving vegetation drier and more fire\u2011prone; severe fires in Brazil in 2016 and 2024 burned millions of hectares<\/a>. These fires release vast carbon stocks and take decades to recover.<\/p>\n

Excess rainfall<\/p>\n

Parts of the southern United States and South America, the Horn of Africa and central Asia often experience excess rainfall<\/a> during El Ni\u00f1o, leading to flooding. While heavier rainfall<\/a> can replenish groundwater, increasingly concentrated storms can also reduce absorption and accelerate soil drying.<\/p>\n

This is because intense bursts of rainfall exceed infiltration capacity, causing runoff rather than absorption, while longer dry intervals between storms accelerate soil moisture loss.<\/p>\n

Increased coal consumption<\/p>\n

Greater heat can increase already high levels of coal consumption in parts of the world. El Ni\u00f1o brings above-average temperatures and intensifies prolonged heatwaves in South Asia by weakening monsoon rains, which increases demand for air conditioning. Coal-based power systems in Asia supply about 70% of electricity in India and approximately 55% in China<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Grid failure risk<\/p>\n

Drought also impacts hydropower generation, increasing risk of grid failures. Colombia, for example, relies upon hydropower for about 65% of its energy generation<\/a>. During the 2015-16 El Ni\u00f1o, reduced rainfall cut hydropower generation, pushing up electricity prices and increasing risk of blackouts. In the 1992 El Ni\u00f1o, the Colombian government introduced power rationing<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Declining Fish Stocks<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o stops cool water upwelling<\/a> in parts of the pacific, limiting nutrient availability for phytoplankton and leaving small fish such as anchovies and sardines<\/a> without enough food. Larger predatory fish<\/a> are then negatively affected and often migrate further than usual. Fisheries from California and Mexico, to Peru and Ecuador, and from Papua New Guinea to Micronesia can be affected. Declining catch volumes result as upwelling\u2011dependent fisheries face reduced biomass, leading to lower seasonal harvests and income.<\/p>\n

Heightened Geopolitical Tensions over Critical Agricultural Inputs<\/p>\n

More extreme weather could exacerbate geopolitical tensions. Rising temperatures reduce crop fertility<\/a> and farmers often respond by applying more fertilizers. In the context of the global fertilizer crisis, China, some of the gulf states and Algeria have deployed protectionist measures to limit fertilizer exports<\/a>. Russia has halted export licenses for ammonium nitrate \u2013 a crucial fertilizer ingredient. The United States is attempting to increase domestic fertilizer<\/a> production as part of its broader America First industrial policy. From a simple agricultural input fertilizer production, trade and use could become another fracture in global politics.<\/p>\n

Higher rates of heat illness<\/p>\n

All these dynamics impact societies unequally. Workers exposed to heat stress<\/a> face heightened health risks, particularly in physically demanding jobs such as agriculture and construction, including heat-related illnesses and long-term health damage. During the heat season in India\u2019s capital Delhi, temperatures often exceed 40C, putting an increasing number of its workers\u2019 health and lives at risk.<\/p>\n

Civil conflict<\/p>\n

Reduced crop yields and weakened economies often intensify social tensions. The likelihood of civil conflict in affected tropical countries can double during El Ni\u00f1o years. According to one study, about 21% of conflicts since 1950<\/a> are linked to such climate patterns. In Sudan, including Darfur<\/a>, drought and harvest failures tied to climate variability including El Ni\u00f1o conditions, exacerbated resource scarcity and already-existing social inequalities, contributing to conflict dynamics.<\/p>\n

Taken together, these impacts reveal not just a climate event, but a global system in which environmental shocks are transmitted through supply chains, unequal trade and energy provision and consumption, disproportionately burdening the poor in the global south.<\/p>\n

If reading this list of 10 worst-case scenarios makes you feel depressed, it\u2019s worth mentioning two ways out of this spiralling ecological and social crisis. The technology and know-how exist to transition away from fossil fuels to renewables, but without transforming the global systems that organise supply chains, energy and trade, these solutions will remain uneven in their reach and impact.<\/p>\n

There is also extensive knowledge on building resilient agricultural systems that can generate food security whilst contributing to ecosystem restoration. But again, breaking out of an export orientated, chemically intensive agricultural system will take large-scale political transformations.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"A powerful, or \u201csuper\u201d El Ni\u00f1o \u2013 marked by 2C (3.6F) or greater increase in sea surface temperatures…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":484044,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[242,85,46,141],"class_list":["post-484043","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-environment","tag-environment","tag-il","tag-israel","tag-science"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/484043","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=484043"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/484043\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/484044"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=484043"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=484043"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=484043"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}