{"id":487893,"date":"2026-06-11T17:29:08","date_gmt":"2026-06-11T17:29:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/487893\/"},"modified":"2026-06-11T17:29:08","modified_gmt":"2026-06-11T17:29:08","slug":"el-nino-forms-in-pacific-as-experts-say-it-will-likely-turbocharge-extreme-weather-el-nino-southern-oscillation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/487893\/","title":{"rendered":"El Ni\u00f1o forms in Pacific as experts say it will likely turbocharge extreme weather | El Ni\u00f1o southern oscillation"},"content":{"rendered":"

El Ni\u00f1o<\/a>, the climate phenomenon that supercharges weather around the world, has officially arrived and could intensify to historic levels in the fall, US officials said on Thursday.<\/p>\n

US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) forecasters confirmed the formation of El Ni\u00f1o in the warmer than usual Pacific Ocean near the equator, which affects global weather patterns.<\/p>\n

Scientists have previously advised that this year\u2019s El Ni\u00f1o could be the strongest of the century. Ant\u00f3nio Guterres, the UN secretary-general, described El Ni\u00f1o as an \u201curgent climate warning\u201d.<\/p>\n

There was a 63% chance that the El Ni\u00f1o will get so intense this late fall and early winter that it \u201cwould rank among the largest El Ni\u00f1o events in the historical record going back to 1950\u201d, according to Noaa.<\/p>\n

In the US, El Ni\u00f1o has been associated with stormier weather in the south, increased risk of high tide flooding, algal blooms on the west coast and changes to migratory patterns of marine life. But the conditions affect weather across the world by altering jet streams and changing rain patterns, which can lead to more severe storms, increased temperatures and drought.<\/p>\n

\u201cEvery El Nino is not the same; each one is unique with its own imprint on our weather,\u201d Ken Graham, the director of Noaa\u2019s National Weather Service (NWS), said in a statement. \u201cAdvanced monitoring and an improved understanding of El Ni\u00f1o patterns allow the NWS to better predict and better prepare the public and our core partners for what is to come.\u201d<\/p>\n

It affects weather patterns by bringing \u201ca lot of extra heat to the surface, fueling a lot of extreme events for a lot of places around the world\u201d, said Abby Frazier, a Clark University climate scientist.<\/p>\n

She said \u201cit can get dire very quickly\u201d, especially in the Pacific.<\/p>\n

Effects vary by region. El Ni\u00f1o often dampens \u2013 but does not eliminate \u2013 Atlantic hurricane season activity, but increases it in the Pacific. So while the US east and Gulf coasts may get a break, Hawaii and other islands are more in danger, Frazier said. It typically leads to a wetter winter in California.<\/p>\n

The drought-stricken Middle East could benefit, climate scientists said. Other places are looking at more danger. Parts of western South America \u2013 where the first El Ni\u00f1os were noticed decades ago \u2013 often get heavy rain and floods, along with an extra warm summer. India faces more intense heatwaves, while drought, wildfires and heat threaten Australia.<\/p>\n

North-eastern Africa is probably going to get weather whiplash from intense drought to dangerously heavy rains, said Muhammad Azhar Ehsan, a Columbia University climate scientist and El Ni\u00f1o expert.<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1os can benefit the US agriculture industry, said Jon Gottschalck, operational branch chief at Noaa\u2019s Climate Prediction Center.<\/p>\n

Michael Ferrari, meteorologist and head of research at the investment research firm Moby, said conditions for grains and seed, especially soybeans, look favorable in 18 major growing states, but are more mixed when it comes to dairy and cattle.<\/p>\n

But experts warn<\/a> the conditions may lead to shock in the global food supply with crops such as maize and rice especially vulnerable to El Ni\u00f1o and drought reducing food production in South Africa, India, Indonesia, Vietnam and Brazil.<\/p>\n

The northern Rockies and south-west \u2013 where there is an \u201coff the charts\u201d snow drought \u2013 could get some strong summer rains, Gottschalck said. The biggest effect in the US is often in the winter, when the south can get wetter and the Pacific north-west warmer and drier.<\/p>\n

But overall, temperatures raised by the weather pattern can dampen American economic growth, said Marshall Burke, a Stanford climate economist. Several climate scientists forecast that 2027 will be the hottest year on record because of lagging effects of this El Ni\u00f1o, which is expected to peak in the fall or winter.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe have pretty clear evidence that the US economy grows more slowly when temps are above normal,\u201d Burke said.<\/p>\n

The weather extremes caused by an El Ni\u00f1o also depend on when it develops.<\/p>\n

Usually, El Ni\u00f1os form in the summer, peak in the late fall or early winter, and peter out the next spring, scientists said.<\/p>\n

However, Ehsan\u2019s team forecasts that this El Ni\u00f1o will peak a month or two earlier based on strong early signs from recent weeks. The Princeton University climate scientist Gabriel Vecchi said large El Ni\u00f1os like these also tend to last longer.<\/p>\n

The early indications \u2013 including warmer water pushing toward the surface of the Pacific \u2013 have been so strong and noticeable that forecasters have all been predicting the same ultra-strong El Ni\u00f1o, Vecchi said, adding that El Ni\u00f1o forecasts often are all over the place at this time of year.<\/p>\n

Scientists predict stronger El Ni\u00f1os as the world warms from the burning of coal, oil and gas, Frazier and others said. But she said it was too early to say if this El Ni\u00f1o is part of that.<\/p>\n

Even before it officially formed, this El Ni\u00f1o has acquired nicknames ranging from \u201csuper\u201d to \u201cGodzilla\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cInstead of scared, we can ask people to be prepared,\u201d Columbia\u2019s Ehsan said.<\/p>\n

The Met office, the UK\u2019s national weather service, said<\/a> in the UK it could \u201cincrease the likelihood of more unsettled conditions later in the year, including a higher chance of milder, wetter and windier weather during autumn and early winter\u201d.<\/p>\n

The Associated Press contributed reporting<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"El Ni\u00f1o, the climate phenomenon that supercharges weather around the world, has officially arrived and could intensify to…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":487894,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[242,85,46,141],"class_list":["post-487893","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-environment","tag-environment","tag-il","tag-israel","tag-science"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/487893","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=487893"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/487893\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/487894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=487893"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=487893"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=487893"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}