Does the regime in Tehran truly seek to destroy Israel? Are its threats aimed primarily at domestic audiences? Is the Iranian leadership rational? Is deterrence working?<\/p>\n
These were important questions, but they were not the right questions.<\/p>\n
The great lesson of \u201cRising Lion\u201d is that national security cannot be based on assessing intentions. It must be based on preventing capabilities.<\/p>\n
![\"Iranian](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/672403.jpeg\"\/)
Iranian flags fly as fire and smoke from an Israeli attack on Sharan Oil depot rise, following Israeli strikes on Iran, in Tehran, Iran, June 15, 2025. (credit: MAJID ASGARIPOUR\/WANA\/REUTERS)<\/p>\n
Intentions can change overnight. Leaders change. Regimes fall. Political circumstances shift.<\/p>\n
Capabilities remain.<\/p>\n
A state possessing thousands of ballistic missiles, a vast drone arsenal, and a military nuclear infrastructure does not become less dangerous simply because one expert or another believes it has no immediate intention of using them.<\/p>\n
Jewish and Israeli history teaches this lesson again and again.<\/p>\n
In the 1930s, there were those who argued that Nazi Germany merely sought to correct the injustices of World War I.<\/p>\n
In May 1967, many focused on analyzing Egyptian president Gamal Abdel Nasser\u2019s intentions. Israel\u2019s government ultimately chose to focus on facts: the closure of the Straits of Tiran, the expulsion of UN forces, and the concentration of Arab armies in Sinai. These were not declarations. These were military capabilities.<\/p>\n
In October 1973, senior intelligence officials assessed that Egypt and Syria were not interested in war.<\/p>\n
On October 7, 2023<\/a>, Israel paid a heavy price for a conception that focused on intentions instead of capabilities.<\/p>\n Hamas possessed a terror army of tens of thousands of terrorists, a vast rocket arsenal, tunnels, and Nukhba forces. For years, the public was told that Hamas<\/a> was deterred, that it sought arrangements, that it was focused on economics and governance.<\/p>\n The capabilities remained. One day, the intentions materialized as well.<\/p>\n ‘Rising Lion’ shows a shift in Israel’s actions<\/p>\n This is precisely why Operation \u201cRising Lion\u201d marks a profound strategic shift.<\/p>\n Israel did not wait for the moment Iran crossed the nuclear threshold. It did not wait for nuclear warheads to be mounted on ballistic missiles. It did not wait for final proof that the Iranian regime truly intended to carry out what it had declared for decades.<\/p>\n It acted to deny the enemy the capability.<\/p>\n