{"id":499318,"date":"2026-06-18T16:09:14","date_gmt":"2026-06-18T16:09:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/499318\/"},"modified":"2026-06-18T16:09:14","modified_gmt":"2026-06-18T16:09:14","slug":"for-irans-leaders-surviving-the-war-may-prove-easier-than-winning-the-peace","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/499318\/","title":{"rendered":"For Iran\u2019s leaders, surviving the war may prove easier than winning the peace"},"content":{"rendered":"

Summary<\/p>\n

Iran survived a war with the United States and secured a ceasefire deal without abandoning its missile program or regional proxies.
\n Hardliners in Tehran emerged emboldened and in control while the moderate president remains sidelined in administrative duties.
\n Experts warn Iran must deliver economic relief to its population or face renewed domestic unrest.<\/p>\n

\n AI-generated summary was reviewed by a CNN editor.<\/p>\n

\n After nearly half a century of flirting with direct conflict, the United States finally went to war with Iran. Fifteen weeks later, the fighting is over. The regime has not only survived a confrontation with the world\u2019s most powerful military but emerged believing it is stronger than before.\n <\/p>\n

\n Despite US President Donald Trump\u2019s declaration just days into the war that Washington had already emerged victorious, Iran retained its ability to fight back right up to the signing of an interim ceasefire agreement<\/a> with the US. Its most powerful weapon proved to be causing the biggest oil supply shock in history through its effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world\u2019s crude passes.\n <\/p>\n

\n Iran is casting its survival as a strategic victory over the US and Israel. But surviving the war may prove easier than winning the peace. Assuming the ceasefire holds, the more consequential battle is whether the Islamic Republic\u2019s leaders can translate that defiance into sanctions relief, economic revival and enough public support to secure the regime\u2019s future.\n <\/p>\n

\n Projecting its own victory, the Iranian regime empowered a hardline leadership, fired missiles and drones at its neighbors, rejected temporary ceasefires, and doubled down on its right to a nuclear program.\n <\/p>\n

\n It also appointed Mojtaba Khamenei<\/a>, the son of assassinated Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to succeed his father in a deliberate display of continuity that defies the Islamic Republic\u2019s long-standing taboo against hereditary rule. It maintains a functioning government and a cohesive military still capable of launching ballistic missiles that threaten Washington\u2019s regional allies and the world economy.\n <\/p>\n

\n A memorandum of understanding reached between the US and Iran over the weekend \u201cimmediately and permanently\u201d terminates hostilities<\/a>, paves the way for the removal of all sanctions against Iran, and unfreezes its assets, without having Iran end its missile program or its support for regional proxies. In return, Tehran has reiterated its longstanding pledge not to build a nuclear weapon, promised to dilute near weapons-grade uranium, and agreed to unblock the Strait of Hormuz \u2013 concessions that don\u2019t go significantly beyond its prewar offers.\n <\/p>\n

\"Vessels<\/p>\n

\n \u201cFor the Islamic Republic and its supporters, there is this strong sense of confidence that they took the biggest blows America and Israel can give them and were left standing and are getting concessions,\u201d said Sina Toossi, a senior non-resident fellow at the Center for International Policy (CIP).\n <\/p>\n

\n Experts say the regime\u2019s sense of triumph could quickly dissipate, however, if it fails to convert its wartime success into gains at home, which could require curbing hardliners\u2019 appetite for continued conflict.\n <\/p>\n

\n Iran\u2019s generals and warmongering politicians had long boasted of their power to hit back. This conflict has left them emboldened. They see its outcome as proof that it was their military strategy \u2013 not diplomacy or compromise \u2013 that forced an agreement.\n <\/p>\n

\n The hardliners <\/a>have emerged with their hands on the levers of power and battlefield command, and their supporters now flood Iran\u2019s streets with daily rallies celebrating a newfound legitimacy forged through surviving the US-Israeli assault. The moderate president, Masoud Pezeshkian, remains constrained to administrative governance and his reformist comrades have been pushed to the side \u2013 some even reportedly under house arrest.\n <\/p>\n

\"Iranian<\/p>\n

\n But the Islamic Republic\u2019s underlying problems remain unresolved, experts say. Unless it can convert its purported victory into tangible economic gain<\/a> for the general population, the regime may have to continue to reckon with a domestically turbulent future and lurking foreign enemies.\n <\/p>\n

\n \u201cThey (the regime) have more confidence and probably more support because they\u2019ve survived the war and have a sufficiently loyal base,\u201d said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at London\u2019s Chatham House think tank. \u201cBut they still have a component of the population who would like to see the end of the Islamic Republic.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

\n Despite widespread hardship, daily life in Iran has largely carried on amid the greatest existential threat in the Islamic Republic\u2019s 47-year history. A military and economic resilience strategy prepared the country for prolonged conflict, in which asymmetric tactics proved effective and a new generation of commanders has emerged.\n <\/p>\n

\n But ordinary Iranians have borne the brunt of the US attacks, with more than 3,000 people killed in the three-plus months of war. Prices of essential goods have soared and many people have lost their jobs, with millions now at risk of falling into poverty<\/a> amid widespread economic struggles.\n <\/p>\n

\"Rescue<\/p>\n

\n \u201cFor the Iranian people, they need to see dividends of the war,\u201d said Toossi, the CIP analyst. \u201cThe Islamic Republic is telling them their grand strategy paid off and there will be a new regional order, but if the people cannot see that on the dinner tables, then the regime\u2019s problems aren\u2019t going away.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

\n Just a few weeks before the war, the Islamic Republic faced one of its greatest domestic threats when tens of thousands took to the streets to demonstrate against dire economic conditions that were exacerbated by US sanctions. Thousands were killed in the government\u2019s brutal crackdown, but the movement exposed the fragility of the regime and its leadership.\n <\/p>\n

\n Protesters and political opposition alike now must reckon with an increasingly paranoid regime that has witnessed enemy infiltration and faces Trump\u2019s claims of arming ethnic opposition groups. The Islamic Republic will likely enjoy a newfound boldness in confronting dissent.\n <\/p>\n

\n Critically, Tehran must contend with hardliners firmly entrenched within the regime, including influential figures who have fiercely opposed the terms of the current agreement with Washington and have previously attempted to sabotage diplomacy to push for war.\n <\/p>\n

\n These hardliners insist \u2013 under the belief that they are the victors in this war \u2013 that the agreement amounts to surrender to the US and abandons Iran\u2019s core priorities. Like Trump, but for different reasons, they too opposed the 2015 Iran nuclear deal reached under the Obama administration.\n <\/p>\n

\n To appease both protesters and hardline figures, Iranian negotiators are expected to insist to their American counterparts that any final deal must include substantial sanctions relief and the unfreezing of Iran\u2019s assets.\n <\/p>\n

\n The regime understands that a purely symbolic victory would not suffice to win over regime opponents who have temporarily set aside their grievances for the sake of wartime unity, or those hardliners who have reluctantly halted calls for war on the promise of major concessions from Washington.\n <\/p>\n

\"US<\/p>\n

\n And without significant sanctions relief that alleviates the suffering of ordinary Iranians and sets the country on a clear path to economic recovery, difficult questions could again arise about the regime\u2019s longstanding policy of defiance against the US.\n <\/p>\n

\n Paradoxically, any such relief and the unfreezing of assets would almost certainly be provisional on major concessions on Iran\u2019s nuclear program \u2013 concessions that hardliners are likely to reject.\n <\/p>\n

\n And the main untested variable will come with Mojtaba Khamenei\u2019s leadership. He has yet to make any public appearance, and it remains unclear what form his guidance as supreme leader will take.\n <\/p>\n

\n \u201cIn the aftermath of the war, is the government going to be more exclusionary, more inclusionary, what are the social freedoms, political freedoms?\u201d Toossi, the analyst, asked. \u201cAll those things will be telling in the coming months.\u201d\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Summary Iran survived a war with the United States and secured a ceasefire deal without abandoning its missile…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":499319,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[85,46,43],"class_list":["post-499318","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-israel","tag-il","tag-israel","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/499318","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=499318"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/499318\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/499319"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=499318"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=499318"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=499318"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}