{"id":500359,"date":"2026-06-19T05:39:14","date_gmt":"2026-06-19T05:39:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/500359\/"},"modified":"2026-06-19T05:39:14","modified_gmt":"2026-06-19T05:39:14","slug":"humans-will-never-colonize-mars-and-elon-musk-knows-it","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/500359\/","title":{"rendered":"Humans Will Never Colonize Mars \u2014 And Elon Musk Knows It"},"content":{"rendered":"

Shortly before SpaceX\u2019s initial public offering catapulted Elon Musk<\/a>\u2019s personal wealth over $1 trillion, the company\u2019s founder declared<\/a> that the goal of his rocket company is to \u201ctake the fiction out of science fiction.\u201d Specifically, his central goal since SpaceX\u2019s inception in 2002 has been to establish a colony on Mars.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

This mission \u2014\u00a0which Musk<\/a> hopes will make him<\/a> worth $10 trillion one day \u2014\u00a0is described<\/a> in the company\u2019s filing to the Security and Exchange Commission. SpaceX, it declared, will build<\/p>\n

the systems and technologies necessary to make life multiplanetary, to understand the true nature of the universe, and to extend the light of consciousness to the stars. To do this, we have formed the most ambitious, vertically integrated innovation engine on (and off) Earth with unmatched capabilities [\u2026] to harness the Sun to power a truth-seeking artificial intelligence that advances scientific discovery, and ultimately to build a base on the Moon and cities on other planets. [Emphasis added.]<\/p>\n

Leave aside, for the moment, the irony of Musk, one of the great purveyors of misinformation<\/a>, positioning his company on the side of \u201ctruth-seeking.\u201d The central role of artificial intelligence<\/a> in the context of his Mars plans is underappreciated among his fans and proponents of space colonization generally. The truth is, this future is not meant for our species. There is no scientifically plausible way for biological humans to colonize Mars, much less the galaxy. If colonies someday exist on our planetary neighbor, they\u2019ll be occupied by artificial \u201cposthumans\u201d rather than our species.<\/p>\n

To understand exactly why Musk\u2019s vision of the future is not for us, we need to back up and establish a few basics about Mars \u2014\u00a0facts that Musk surely knows well. For starters, the place is completely inhospitable to flesh-and-blood creatures like us. As the astrophysicist Adam Becker describes<\/a> the problem, \u201cthe radiation levels are too high, the gravity is too low, there\u2019s no air, and the dirt is made of poison.\u201d Specifically, Martian soil and water are contaminated by toxic perchlorates that are deadly to humans. Yet for Martian astronauts, Becker notes<\/a>, this \u201cwould be the least of their concerns\u201d because the air pressure is so low that \u201cdirect exposure to Martian air would boil the saliva off an astronaut\u2019s tongue while they asphyxiate.\u201d<\/p>\n

The average temperature on Mars<\/a> is minus 80 degrees Fahrenheit, which is about 50 degrees lower than the average temperature on Mount Everest<\/a> in January. Because there\u2019s no magnetic sphere and barely any atmosphere, the Martian surface receives \u201cabout as much<\/a> radiation as nearby points in deep space,\u201d Becker says. Indeed, the trip to Mars itself would pose enormous challenges for any biological being, as radiation in space is about 100 times stronger than on Earth. This radiation would damage cells, induce cancer and destroy our brains. The microgravity awaiting astronauts, meanwhile, has been linked<\/a> to losses in muscle mass and bone mineral density, along with other forms of tissue atrophy.<\/p>\n

The only way \u201cwe\u201d will colonize Mars is by getting rid of our biology and replacing it with computer hardware.<\/p>\n

As Peter Brannen points out<\/a>, Mars is less habitable right now than Earth was immediately after a massive asteroid struck the Yucatan Peninsula 66 million years ago, killing all the non-avian dinosaurs. How do we know? Because mammals survived the ensuing impact winter, which plunged global surface temperatures and blotted out the sun. In contrast, if you were to place a mammal on Mars right now, it would immediately die.<\/p>\n

This means that the only way \u201cwe\u201d will colonize Mars is by getting rid of our biology and replacing it with computer hardware. How might we do this? There are two options: First, we could build autonomous artificial intelligence<\/a> systems to take our place. You can think of these as more advanced forms of Musk\u2019s chatbot Grok<\/a>, a population of which could be shipped to Mars on a rocket. The downside is that it would be them rather than us occupying the Red Planet.<\/p>\n

The second option is for humans to merge with AI<\/a>. This is what Musk\u2019s company Neuralink is trying to do. Brain-machine interfaces, Musk tells us<\/a>, will confer \u201ccybernetic superpowers\u201d to human-AI<\/a> hybrids, while enabling us to offload our memories and personalities<\/a> to the cloud. This ends with fully \u201cuploaded\u201d minds, whereby we swap our squishy brains for silicon hardware. We will become AI, living as disembodied software that interacts with the world through robotic appendages. Rather than traveling to Mars with Hal 9000 onboard, as in Stanley Kubrick\u2019s \u201c2001: A Space Odyssey,\u201d Hal 9000 would be us.<\/p>\n

Musk presumably understands this. As Google co-founder Larry Page once told him<\/a>, \u201cif life is ever going to spread throughout our galaxy and beyond \u2026 then it would need to do so in a digital form.\u201d Similarly, Musk\u2019s friend William MacAskill writes<\/a> that \u201cdigital sentience \u2026 makes interstellar travel much easier: it is easier to sustain digital than biological beings during very long-distance space travel.\u201d<\/p>\n

The problem is that we have absolutely no idea whether digital sentience is even possible. We don\u2019t know if artificial systems can give rise to conscious experiences \u2014 that qualitative inner feeling of seeing red or listening to Beethoven\u2019s \u201cMoonlight Sonata.\u201d Neuroscientists like Anil Seth argue<\/a> that artificial consciousness isn\u2019t feasible, and that mind-uploading won\u2019t yield sentience. I think he\u2019s correct, because computer hardware probably isn\u2019t the right kind of material to produce inner experiences \u2014 just as spaghetti noodles aren\u2019t the right sort of material to build a bridge across a mile-wide river.<\/p>\n

Taking the fiction out of science fiction will be much harder than Musk lets on.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s a big problem because SpaceX\u2019s entire mission fundamentally depends on the feasibility of artificial consciousness. If artificial systems can\u2019t be conscious, then the company\u2019s central goal of extending \u201cthe light of consciousness to the stars\u201d will necessarily fail. Musk has been careful not to highlight this fact in public, as it would spook SpaceX investors. Most investors probably don\u2019t realize that Martian colonies will be occupied by AIs rather than humans, and few have likely thought carefully about the extraordinary challenges of building AIs with conscious experiences in the first place. Taking the fiction out of science fiction will be much harder than Musk lets on.\u00a0<\/p>\n

But if we\u2019re going to entertain Musk\u2019s provocations on their own terms, let\u2019s imagine a further sci-fi scenario: establishing a Martian colony would almost certainly lead to catastrophic conflicts with Earth. As the political theorist Daniel Deudney points out in his book \u201cDark Skies<\/a>,\u201d the political system of the solar system will be anarchic \u2014 meaning there will be no central authority, as in the international system of states \u2014 and the colonies of digital people will inevitably want their independence. This will foment tension between Mars and Earth, whose terrestrial nations will wish to maintain control over its Martian outposts, just as England did over the 13 U.S. territories in the 18th century.<\/p>\n

In this predicament, Earth would be at an enormous space-military disadvantage compared to Mars. We would almost certainly lose any war that breaks out because, not only could we not fight on Mars, but the Red Planet is right next to the asteroid belt. What if hyper-intelligent Martian denizens launch spacecraft that redirect the orbital trajectory of large asteroids toward Earth? Just one of these asteroids could trigger the sort of mass extinction that happened 66 million years ago. Small mammals might survive; humans wouldn\u2019t.<\/p>\n

People who hear that Musk will take \u201cus\u201d to space get excited because it sounds cool, but few have seriously reflected on who he means by \u201cus,\u201d or on the messy details of how it could actually happen. \u201cWe\u201d won\u2019t be going to Mars, and there is no Planet B for our biological species. The plan to create a \u201cposthuman\u201d population to realize Musk\u2019s goals carries much greater challenges and risks \u2014\u00a0technical, political and philosophical \u2014 than building a giant rocket. So great, in fact, that there is a near-zero chance of them being overcome. In the meantime, trillions of dollars that could have saved starving children and built out a new global energy system will have been wasted.<\/p>\n

This is why the IPO of SpaceX is a sad day for humanity. A man who unilaterally terminated the U.S. Agency for International Development, resulting in hundreds of thousands of deaths<\/a> (so far), many of them children, now has unfathomable amounts of wealth and power to manipulate our democracy. As my colleague Devin Kellis writes<\/a>, \u201cthe road to Mars is being paved in blood, giving new meaning to the \u2018Red Planet.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n

The IPO of SpaceX is a sad day for humanity.<\/p>\n

Yet, for reasons that few of us can grasp, gullible investors remain entranced by his messianic aura. In 2016, Musk confidently predicted<\/a> a self-sufficient Martian colony with 1 million people by 2024. That same year, SpaceX announced<\/a> that it was \u201cplanning to send [the rocket] Dragon to Mars as soon as 2018.\u201d Musk later \u201csaid<\/a> the first unmanned missions could take place in 2022,\u201d and by 2020 he was predicting the first human missions to Mars by 2026. When named the 2021 Person of the Year by Time, he told the magazine that he\u2019d \u201cbe surprised if we\u2019re not landing on Mars within five years.\u201d When 2026 arrived, he shifted once again in promising that \u201can unmanned Starship would soon depart for Mars, paving the way for human-led missions,\u201d and \u201cif those landings go well, then human landings may start as soon as 2029, although 2031 is more likely.\u201d<\/p>\n

Early this year, SpaceX abruptly pivoted<\/a> from colonizing Mars in the near future \u201cto building a self-growing city on the Moon,\u201d which Musk claims his company \u201ccan potentially achieve \u2026 in less than 10 years.\u201d He now says that \u201cMars would take 20+ years.\u201d<\/p>\n

As the reality of getting \u201cconscious beings\u201d to Mars continues to slap Musk in the face, his forecasts will continue to retreat toward the horizon. My cash is on it never happening. In the meantime, gigantic heaps of money will be wasted and Musk will get even richer, perhaps someday achieving his outrageous goal<\/a> of $10 trillion in personal wealth. He will continue to fail upward, to the detriment of the rest of the human race. It\u2019s his world now, built on science fictions. We\u2019re just living in it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Shortly before SpaceX\u2019s initial public offering catapulted Elon Musk\u2019s personal wealth over $1 trillion, the company\u2019s founder declared…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":500360,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[350,85,23831,46,2758,141,145,4688,226135],"class_list":["post-500359","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-space","tag-elon-musk","tag-il","tag-ipo","tag-israel","tag-mars","tag-science","tag-space","tag-spacex","tag-trillionaire"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/500359","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=500359"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/500359\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/500360"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=500359"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=500359"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=500359"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}