{"id":509493,"date":"2026-06-24T23:09:35","date_gmt":"2026-06-24T23:09:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/509493\/"},"modified":"2026-06-24T23:09:35","modified_gmt":"2026-06-24T23:09:35","slug":"why-polands-labour-market-is-not-as-bad-as-it-looks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/509493\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Poland\u2019s labour market is not as bad as it looks"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Notes from Poland is run by a small editorial team<\/a> and is published by an independent, non-profit foundation that is funded through donations from our readers. We cannot do what we do without your support.<\/p>\n

By Alicja Ptak<\/p>\n

The article is part of a new series by Alicja Ptak, senior editor at Notes from Poland, exploring the forces shaping Poland\u2019s economy, businesses and energy transition. Each instalment will be accompanied by an in-depth conversation with a leading expert on The Warsaw Wire podcast.<\/p>\n

You can listen to the full podcast conversation on Spotify<\/a>,\u00a0Apple Podcasts<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0YouTube<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Take a look at recent headlines in Poland, and it is easy to feel concerned about the labour market:<\/p>\n

\u201cUnemployment in Poland: biggest rise in five years\u201d
\n\u201cDisastrous labour market figures. Corporations are quietly getting rid of Poles\u201d
\n\u201cA wave of redundancies is just around the corner. These two sectors are in the firing line\u201d
\n\u201cCollective redundancies are becoming the norm\u201d
\n\u201cSzczecin too expensive for the Swedes. They\u2019re closing a factory and people are losing their jobs\u201d
\n\u201cAI is taking jobs \u201c
\n\u201cPolish factory to lay off up to 200 workers\u201d<\/p>\n

Such reports are not fake news; they describe real events. In April 2026, for example, the number of registered unemployed people did indeed rise by the largest amount in five years.<\/p>\n

In 2025 and 2026, there was a record number of collective redundancies announced by large firms. Between April 2025 and April 2026, the unemployment rate increased from 5.2% to 6%.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Poles themselves have also become more pessimistic. According to regular surveys conducted by Statistics Poland (GUS), a state agency, 45% of respondents expect unemployment to rise over the next 12 months, and a growing number believe that labour market conditions are deteriorating.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Yet economists remain stubbornly optimistic. Seemingly at odds with both media narratives and public sentiment, they point to a different set of indicators: rising employment<\/a>, steadily growing wages, and the slowest pace of job losses in years.<\/p>\n

Some also note that, despite a recent uptick in unemployment \u2013 which they say is largely influenced by Poland changing rules on who can register as unemployed (more on that below) \u2013 the jobless rate remains close to a historic national low of 4.9%<\/a> registered last in October 2024, while it is also among the lowest in the European Union<\/a>.<\/p>\n

According to the EU Labour Force Survey published by Eurostat, an EU agency (which calculates unemployment using a different methodology from Poland\u2019s), unemployment stood at 3.0% in Poland in April, exactly half the EU average and the second-lowest figure in the bloc.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Kazimierz Sedlak, founder of Sedlak & Sedlak, Poland\u2019s oldest HR consultancy, sees little cause for alarm. \u201cThe labour market is in good shape,\u201d he told Notes from Poland.<\/p>\n

So where does the discrepancy come from between expert assessments, media headlines and public sentiment? There are several explanations.<\/p>\n

First: a change in methodology<\/p>\n

The indicator most commonly cited by the media is the registered unemployment rate, which measures the number of people registered as unemployed with employment offices as a share of the economically active population.<\/p>\n

In June 2025, however, changes to the law expanded eligibility for registration. Farmers owning at least two hectares of land and their family members gained the right to register as unemployed. People were also allowed to sign on at employment offices where they actually live rather than their official place of residence (which in Poland is often not the same place).<\/p>\n

At the same time, the rules governing unemployed people changed. Under the new regulations, jobseekers can refuse a job offer from an employment office without risking removal from the register.<\/p>\n

As a result, more people became eligible to register and fewer people left the unemployment rolls, pushing up the registered unemployment rate even if underlying labour market conditions remained unchanged.<\/p>\n

Poland’s youth unemployment rate has risen by more than 27% over the last year, which is the biggest increase in the EU https:\/\/t.co\/tjK9AL1yL8<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Notes from Poland \ud83c\uddf5\ud83c\uddf1 (@notesfrompoland) July 21, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n

Economists have long argued that the registered unemployment rate is an imperfect measure of labour market health. Registration provides access to benefits such as health insurance, creating incentives for some people to register even when they are not actively seeking work.<\/p>\n

Part of the unemployment figure consists of \u201cpeople who are able to work but, for various reasons, find it not worth their while to do so\u201d, said Sedlak.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis is a group of people who register with employment offices solely to obtain social security cover and access to benefits, and nothing more. Such people have always existed, exist now, and always will.\u201d<\/p>\n

That is why economists often prefer the Labour Force Survey (LFS), also published by GUS, which is designed to provide a more accurate picture of labour market conditions.<\/p>\n

Under the survey\u2019s methodology, a person is classified as unemployed if they did not work during the reference week, actively sought employment during the previous four weeks, and were available to start work within two weeks.<\/p>\n

According to the survey, unemployed people accounted for 3.3% of the labour force in the first quarter of 2026, 0.1 percentage points lower than a year earlier.<\/p>\n

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\u201cOverall, this suggests that the increase in the registered unemployment rate was largely driven by changes in registration rules rather than by actual deterioration in labour market conditions,\u201d Piotr Lewandowski, president of the Institute for Structural Research (IBS), told the Warsaw Wire podcast.<\/p>\n

The same survey found that 17.24 million people aged 15-89 were in employment in the first quarter of 2026, close to the record high of 17.36 million reached just two quarters earlier.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Second: structural changes<\/p>\n

None of this means that there are no problems in the labour market.<\/p>\n

Lewandowski notes that there are signs of a slowdown, including weaker job creation and a longer average period spent searching for work.<\/p>\n

According to GUS data from the first quarter of 2026, unemployed people spent an average of 8.5 months actively seeking work, one month longer than a year earlier. That may reinforce perceptions that finding a job has become more difficult.<\/p>\n

The number of newly created jobs also fell. In 2025, employers created 402,700 new positions, 13% fewer than in 2024 and almost 44% below the peak recorded in 2018. However, the pace of job losses was also the slowest in years.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s not really bad, but it\u2019s definitely less rosy than it was one, two or three years ago,\u201d said Lewandowski. \u201cSo I\u2019m not surprised that people are slightly more concerned, but I think we should have a more balanced narrative. It\u2019s not a disaster.\u201d<\/p>\n

Among the sectors most exposed to weaker labour market conditions, he highlighted manufacturing, particularly the automotive industry, as well as sectors important to the Polish economy such as furniture production and construction materials.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Ignacy Morawski, deputy editor-in-chief of the business daily Puls Biznesu, however, argues that Poland is undergoing a period of \u201ccreative destruction\u201d \u2013 a term coined by economist Joseph Schumpeter to describe the process by which innovation drives economic growth by replacing older industries and technologies.<\/p>\n

In practice, this means that while some sectors are shrinking rapidly, others are expanding just as quickly.<\/p>\n

Alongside the industries highlighted by Lewandowski as facing challenges, Morawski noted in a social media post this week that \u201cother sectors are growing rapidly, including the manufacture of transport equipment, machinery, computers, measuring instruments and waste management\u201d.<\/p>\n

Dawno w polskiej gospodarce nie by\u0142o takiej kreatywnej destrukcji. Oznacza to, \u017ce bran\u017ce rosn\u0105ce rosn\u0105 szybko, a spadaj\u0105ce szybko spadaj\u0105.<\/p>\n

Og\u00f3lnie, wed\u0142ug GUS, produkcja w Polsce ro\u015bnie w tempie 4 proc. rok do roku. Ta \u015brednia jednak ukrywa g\u0142\u0119bokie zmiany strukturalne.<\/p>\n

Du\u017ce\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/pbAZp964yU<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Ignacy Morawski (@iggnacy) June 22, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n

Third: demographics<\/p>\n

Ironically, many of these same sectors which are slowing employment were until recently warning of severe labour shortages and urging the government to facilitate greater immigration<\/a> into Poland, a country facing both rapid population decline and an ageing society<\/a>.<\/p>\n

According to Lewandowski, slower job creation in these industries does not necessarily signal weakness. In many cases, it reflects companies investing in automation in response to labour shortages that are expected to worsen in the coming decades.<\/p>\n

When asked about the impact of artificial intelligence on the Polish labour market, neither expert was willing to make firm predictions.<\/p>\n

Sedlak quoted the economist John Kenneth Galbraith, who famously observed that \u201cthe only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable\u201d.<\/p>\n

Lewandowski similarly argued that it is too early to draw conclusions, partly because adoption of AI technologies in Poland remains relatively limited.<\/a><\/p>\n

\u201cThere is evidence from the US that occupations more exposed to AI may be seeing weaker job creation, especially at entry level,\u201d he said. \u201cBut whether these investments will actually pay off and whether they will lead to lasting organisational changes that reduce labour intensity across industries is still too early to tell.\u201d<\/p>\n

Only 5.9% Polish firms use AI tools, which is the second-lowest figure in the EU. In some member states, the number is over 25%.<\/p>\n

“Changing this should be a priority” to avoid “losing market share to foreign competitors”, writes @PIE_NET_PL<\/a> in a new report https:\/\/t.co\/HFcCcCmF2E<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Notes from Poland \ud83c\uddf5\ud83c\uddf1 (@notesfrompoland) July 3, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n

The shadow of the past<\/p>\n

So why is there so much concern in Poland about rising unemployment? According to Lewandowski, part of the explanation lies in collective memory.<\/p>\n

The period of high unemployment that followed Poland\u2019s transition from the communist centrally planned economy to a market economy in the 1990s and early 2000s remains deeply embedded in public consciousness.<\/p>\n

Just before Poland joined the EU in 2004, registered unemployment exceeded 20%, while youth unemployment surpassed 40%.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis inheritance from the trauma of the high-unemployment era has essentially defined public debate about employment and the labour market in Poland,\u201d said Lewandowski.<\/p>\n

Poland has emerged as Europe\u2019s undisputed growth champion over the past 35 years.<\/p>\n

In the first part of a new series of articles and podcasts, @AlicjaPtak4<\/a> explores the reasons behind Poland’s rapid economic development, and the dangers\u00a0that may\u00a0lie\u00a0ahead https:\/\/t.co\/bW3bnV7Ozn<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Notes from Poland \ud83c\uddf5\ud83c\uddf1 (@notesfrompoland) July 7, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n

He believes the discussion should evolve, with greater attention paid to indicators such as employment growth and wage growth, as is common in countries such as the United States.<\/p>\n

Sedlak, meanwhile, argues that labour market confidence is also shaped by politics and geopolitics.<\/p>\n

In his view, political uncertainty during the Law and Justice (PiS) government\u2019s tenure between 2015 and 2023 discouraged investment, while the ongoing war in neighbouring Ukraine continues to weigh on sentiment.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis reluctance to invest stems from a lack of confidence among business owners. It is worth the government bearing this in mind,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

He hopes that investment will increase thanks to the release of EU post-pandemic funds and defence spending supported by the EU\u2019s SAFE loan programme<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Poland has signed its first contracts using funds from the EU’s SAFE mechanism, which is providing \u20ac44 billion in loans for defence spending.<\/p>\n

The first deals include cybersecurity systems and drones, with more agreements to follow by tomorrow’s deadline https:\/\/t.co\/HPegKDG54L<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Notes from Poland \ud83c\uddf5\ud83c\uddf1 (@notesfrompoland) May 29, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n

What next?<\/p>\n

Lewandowski believes the current government\u2019s response to Poland\u2019s labour market challenges lacks coherence.<\/p>\n

Despite existing labour shortages and the prospect of more severe shortages as the population ages and shrinks, the government led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, a coalition ranging from left to centre right, has adopted a tougher stance on migration<\/a>, echoing rhetoric traditionally associated with the right and far right.<\/p>\n

At the same time, it is running a pilot programme<\/a> exploring a four-day or shorter working week.<\/p>\n

\u201cYou can either say that 25% of occupations will face labour shortages, or you can reduce the working week, or you can reduce immigration,\u201d said Lewandowski. \u201cThe only way to deal with labour shortages without attracting more workers is to increase productivity dramatically.\u201d<\/p>\n

Almost 2,000 employers in Poland have applied to take part in a government pilot programme to test shorter working hours for staff with the same rate of pay.<\/p>\n

The labour ministry argues that cutting hours can benefit both employers and their staff https:\/\/t.co\/PHBHTV8pqP<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Notes from Poland \ud83c\uddf5\ud83c\uddf1 (@notesfrompoland) September 17, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n

That may be achievable in manufacturing through automation, and perhaps in some service sectors if AI fulfils its promise, he said. But in many parts of the public sector, the options are more limited.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt is much more difficult in healthcare or public transport. You cannot simply tell train drivers to run the trains faster.\u201d<\/p>\n

For that reason, Lewandowski believes Poland has yet to resolve a fundamental contradiction.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think this paradox remains completely unresolved,\u201d he said. \u201cAnd labour shortages will soon become a constraint on Poland\u2019s economic growth.\u201d<\/p>\n

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Notes from Poland is run by a small editorial team<\/a> and published by an independent, non-profit foundation that is funded through donations from our readers. We cannot do what we do without your support.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Alicja Ptak is deputy editor-in-chief of Notes from Poland and a multimedia journalist. She has written for Clean Energy Wire and The Times, and she hosts her own podcast, The Warsaw Wire, on Poland\u2019s economy and energy sector. She previously worked\u00a0for\u00a0Reuters.<\/p>\n

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