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\n\tThe U.S. declines to state whether hostilities will resume before the MOU expiry date: File Image\/Pixabay\u00a0<\/p>\n
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\u201c<\/p>\n \n\tWe have set the scene for surprises<\/p>\n Macquarie commodities strategists<\/p>\n
\n\tOil trading on Wednesday maintained its now-familiar course, with investors continuing to place faith in the efficacy of peace negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, and two key benchmarks incurring <\/a>another round of losses.<\/p>\n
\n\tAs of 1542 GMT, Brent was down $1.60, or 2.1 percent, to $71.35 per barrel; West Texas Intermediate was down $1.21, or 1.7 percent, at $68.28 per barrel. Both benchmarks were at their lowest in more than four months.<\/p>\n
\n\tBrent has fallen by around $45 per barrel in the second quarter of 2026, the largest quarterly drop since the Great Recession of 2008; WTI has fallen by around $31, a rate not seen since the 2020 pandemic obliterated global demand.<\/p>\n
\n\tMoreover, experts think the bottom has not yet been reached: speaking of the positive perception within the investment community of the peace talks, Ole Hansen, analyst at Saxo Bank, said, “There is a chance that we could see even lower prices.”<\/p>\n
\n\tMeanwhile, sources with knowledge of the matter told media that the U.S. and Iran held technical talks in Doha on Wednesday in an attempt to agree on transit issues in the Strait of Hormuz and secure a lasting ceasefire.<\/p>\n
\n\tBut mixed messages regarding the diplomatic efforts persisted.<\/p>\n
\n\tWhile U.S. president Donald Trump, who reportedly had been considering resuming all-out war with Iran, told reporters that \u201cThey\u2019ve come a long way\u201d \u00a0since the latest wave of bombings from Washington last week, vice president JD Vance said<\/a>\u00a0it was \u201cup to the Iranians\u201d if large-scale combat would resume before the 60-day memorandum of understanding expires.<\/p>\n
\n\tThe situation bothered some analysts, notably Macquarie commodities strategists led by Peter Taylor, who wrote<\/a>\u00a0to clients, “Despite the daily noise, markets feel remarkably calm, but comfort is not the same as clarity.”<\/p>\n
\n\tThey added that while the second half of 2026 may be calmer than the first, \u201cWe have set the scene for surprises.\u201d<\/p>\n
\n\tIn other oil news on Wednesday, the Energy Information Administration reported that U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.8 million barrels to 408.4 million barrels last week, the lowest level since September 2018, and as domestic refinery demand rose in advance of the July 4 holiday weekend.<\/p>\n
\n\tAlso on Wednesday, the Ukraine drone strikes against Russia have forced the former Soviet Union to commence <\/a>importing refined fuel from India by sea, with an initial shipment of at least 60,000 metric tons of gasoline, to mitigate critical domestic fuel shortages.<\/p>\n
\n\tThe Ukrainian drone strikes have halted about 30 percent of Russia\u2019s oil refining capacity, resulting in a 21-year low for domestic throughput.<\/p>\n