{"id":522900,"date":"2026-07-03T06:56:12","date_gmt":"2026-07-03T06:56:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/522900\/"},"modified":"2026-07-03T06:56:12","modified_gmt":"2026-07-03T06:56:12","slug":"analysis-worlds-oceans-hottest-on-record-for-june-el-nino-set-to-turn-up-heat-even-more","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/522900\/","title":{"rendered":"ANALYSIS | World\u2019s oceans hottest on record for June. El Ni\u00f1o set to turn up heat even more"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"View<\/p>\n


\n View over the Indian Ocean and Morgan Bay sea cliffs at the southern end of the Wild Coast, in the Eastern Cape. The world\u2019s oceans are getting rapidly warmer, write the authors. \n <\/p>\n

Arterra\/Marica van der Meer\/Universal Images Group via Getty Images.<\/p>\n

The world\u2019s oceans are getting hotter. This is likely to be exacerbated by the El Ni\u00f1o. Steady ocean warming coupled with longer-lasting and more intense marine heatwaves pose huge threats to marine ecosystems such as coral reefs, seagrass meadows and coastal reefs, write Matthew England, Alex Sen Gupta and Alistair Hobday.<\/p>\n

The world\u2019s oceans are the hottest on record for June<\/a>, pushing past records set during the 2023-24 El Ni\u00f1o years.<\/p>\n

Right now, the average sea surface temperature is just under 21\u00b0C across the world\u2019s tropical and temperate oceans. Before widespread industrialisation in 1870, the temperature was about 19.6\u00b0C.<\/p>\n

That may not sound like a big difference. But heating the world\u2019s oceans this much requires a truly enormous amount of energy. Of all the extra heat trapped by greenhouse gases from burning coal, gas and oil, more than 90% has gone into the world\u2019s oceans.<\/a><\/p>\n

As a result, the oceans are getting rapidly warmer<\/a>. In 2025, the heat added was the equivalent of about 12 Hiroshima-scale nuclear bombs<\/a> exploding every second of every day.<\/p>\n

To find a climate analogue comparable to what\u2019s happening now in the oceans, we would have to go back\u00a0around 120 000 years to before the last ice age. Back then, slow shifts in the Earth\u2019s orbit led it to heat up gradually over thousands of years. Humans have accomplished a similar result in a little over a century.<\/p>\n

But the heat in the ocean doesn\u2019t just stay there.<\/a> Hotter oceans fuel stronger cyclones, a more humid atmosphere, more intense rainfall, and more heat in air masses over the seas, which can, in turn, make heatwaves over land more likely and more intense.<\/p>\n

The El Ni\u00f1o forming in the tropical Pacific right now is likely to be a big one. As it develops, we can expect to see warmer temperatures and extreme events such as marine heatwaves in the western Indian, tropical Atlantic and eastern Pacific Oceans.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Global ocean sea surface temperatures are at the highest level recorded during June.<\/p>\n

Where are the hotspots on land and on sea?<\/p>\n

Europe is sweltering through a record-breaking heatwave.<\/a> The oceans surrounding the region and in enclosed seas are also exceptionally hot.<\/p>\n

Parts of the Mediterranean are up to 6\u00b0C hotter than the long-term average.<\/a><\/p>\n

Parts of the North Sea are up to 3\u00b0C warmer than average.<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

The seas around Europe have been much warmer than average. This map shows temperature anomalies from June 29 2026.<\/p>\n

opernicus Marine Service Data\/European Union, CC BY-NC-ND<\/p>\n

The forming El Ni\u00f1o has led to sea surface temperatures about 1.24\u00b0C warmer than average<\/a> across a large area of the central eastern Pacific.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s much more heat below the surface as well. Subsurface conditions in the eastern Pacific are more than 6\u00b0C above average.<\/a><\/p>\n

A typical El Ni\u00f1o lasts about a year<\/a>. The full effect on atmospheric heat becomes clearest towards the end of the cycle. That means while we can expect 2026 to be very hot \u2013 perhaps a new record \u2013 next year is very likely to be even hotter, as ocean heat is moved back to the surface. We saw this during El Ni\u00f1o events over 2023-24 and 2015-16.<\/p>\n

Steady ocean warming coupled with longer-lasting and more intense marine heatwaves pose huge threats to marine ecosystems<\/a> such as coral reefs, seagrass meadows and coastal reefs. Research on the 2023\u201324 El Ni\u00f1o and the warm 2024 year showed widespread impacts.<\/a><\/p>\n

From oceans to land <\/p>\n

What happens in the oceans doesn\u2019t stay there.<\/a><\/p>\n

In June 2023, a record-breaking marine heatwave<\/a> broke previous temperature records across the North Atlantic Ocean. Soon afterwards, large areas of Europe were hit by intense heatwaves, while extreme rains<\/a> triggered deadly floods in Spain, and severe bushfires broke out around the Mediterranean.<\/p>\n

Rising ocean temperatures have many consequences.<\/p>\n

A warmer ocean is less able to cool the land over summer. Warmer oceans also lead to more evaporation, boosting humidity and fuelling more intense and more sudden extreme rain and floods. These can have devastating consequences.<\/a><\/p>\n

During El Ni\u00f1o events, there\u2019s a clear geographical pattern. The regions we expect to be warmer or cooler during an El Ni\u00f1o roughly reflect where we are more or less likely to get marine heatwaves and more intense tropical cyclones.<\/p>\n

Typical cyclone areas such as the western Indian Ocean could see stronger cyclones dumping heavier rainfall when they hit land. El Ni\u00f1o tends to bring extreme rain and floods to western South America and dry conditions over parts of Australia and Southeast Asia.<\/p>\n

Can we prepare<\/p>\n

We are gaining a better understanding of how big climate drivers like El Ni\u00f1o shape weather and how to use ocean data from around the world to develop better seasonal forecasts<\/a> that authorities can use to prepare.<\/p>\n

Over the past two years, we have improved our ability to forecast marine heatwaves three to four months ahead in Australia<\/a>, the United States<\/a> and other regions. Forecasts give marine authorities a chance to act early by reducing allowable fishery catches and beginning conservation efforts for vulnerable species.<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

The world\u2019s oceans have been steadily warming since the 1870s, as this climate stripes visualisation shows. El Ni\u00f1o years (red tag above) tend to boost ocean warming while La Ni\u00f1a years (blue tag below) tend to be cooler. Tag width represents strength of the event.<\/p>\n

HadISST (before 1982)\/NOAA OISST (1982 onward), CC BY-NC-ND<\/p>\n

This early success in ocean forecasting may be short-lived. The current US administration last year slashed funding<\/a> for climate data gathering networks and has worked to dismantle<\/a> the National Center for Atmospheric Research.<\/p>\n

This year, the administration announced it would end funding for a key ocean monitoring network before backing down.<\/a><\/p>\n

Ongoing collection of ocean data is crucial for ocean and land forecasts. If they are weakened or discontinued, we could face the challenge of dealing with worsening climate impacts blind.<\/p>\n

Ending the measuring of climate change won\u2019t stop it happening. The only way to keep climate change from steadily worsening is to reach net zero as soon as humanly possible. Until then, we must use forecasts to prepare for what we can\u2019t avoid.<\/p>\n

\u2013 Matthew England is the director of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Our Future Oceans and Scientia Professor in Oceanography, UNSW Sydney.<\/p>\n

\u2013 Alex Sen Gupta is an Associate Professor in Climate Science, UNSW Sydney.<\/p>\n

– Alistair Hobday is a Chief Research Scientist – Environment, CSIRO.<\/p>\n

Disclaimer: News24 encourages freedom of speech and the expression of diverse views. The views of columnists published on News24 are therefore their own and do not necessarily represent the views of News24.<\/p>\n

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