By the time the talks ended three days later, with a fresh Israel-Lebanon framework signed by both sides, Leiter was newly optimistic. He said the agreement had put \u201cthe train back on the tracks,\u201d with a \u201cfinal destination\u201d of peace between the neighboring countries.<\/p>\n
The shift captured the agreement\u2019s central purpose: keeping the Lebanon file from being absorbed into the US-Iran track.<\/p>\n
The direct Israel-Lebanon talks had been set up by Washington in April partly to detach Lebanon from the broader Iran conflict, as Tehran sought understandings with Washington that would also protect Hezbollah. Israel was not a party to the MOU, pursued by Trump to end the war with Iran and open nuclear talks, yet the deal appeared to constrain Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, where fighting had continued for months after the group opened fire on Israeli troops and civilians in support of its patron, Iran.<\/p>\n
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\t\t\t\tBy signing up, you agree to the terms<\/a><\/p>\n Concern in Jerusalem sharpened last Sunday, when US Vice President JD Vance \u2014 who seems eager to lead the Israel-skeptic wing of the Republican party \u2014 said the US and Iran had agreed in a first round of talks in Switzerland to create a \u201cdeconfliction mechanism<\/a>\u201d involving Lebanon, with Qatari and Pakistani mediators helping to maintain the fragile ceasefire. Israeli officials feared the mechanism would only strengthen Hezbollah and cement Iranian influence over Lebanon.<\/p>\n \t The direct Israel-Lebanon channel produced several ceasefires in recent months, none of which held for long: Beirut has been unable to rein in Hezbollah, and Israel\u2019s efforts to disarm the group militarily have also failed. As Washington pushed to end the Iran war, it accepted Tehran\u2019s demand that the US-Iran ceasefire extend to Lebanon \u2014 terms Israel insisted it was not bound by, though it had refrained from escalating in several incidents at Trump\u2019s behest.<\/p>\n Against this backdrop, the new framework \u2014 signed as US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a veteran Israel backer, looked on proudly \u2014 appeared to Israel as a course correction.<\/p>\n \u201cFinal destination: peace between our two countries\u2026 In this performance-based trilateral framework agreement, Iran is out, Hezbollah is out, and the road to peace between Israel and Lebanon is in,\u201d Leiter said.<\/p>\n Not so fast<\/p>\n Things are never so simple. This isn\u2019t the first major Beirut-Jerusalem agreement. A failed 1983 accord still looms over any such effort. The framework doesn\u2019t remove the danger Hezbollah poses, doesn\u2019t prove the Lebanese state can establish its authority in the south, and could still collapse in a country where civil war is an ever-present risk.<\/p>\n But it does appear to offset some of the potential damage from the Iran MOU by creating a mechanism for indirect Israel-Lebanon military coordination, giving the Lebanese Armed Forces a formal implementation role and stating publicly both sides\u2019 intent to keep Tehran from playing referee.<\/p>\n Lebanese President Joseph Aoun made a similar point in Beirut on Friday, saying Lebanon had made a sovereign decision to separate its path from the Iran-US track.<\/p>\n \u201cOur sovereign decision to separate our path from the Iranian-American path is a problem for some people who are used to being under a guardianship that controls us, decides for us and negotiates on our behalf,\u201d Aoun was quoted as saying by LBC Group.<\/p>\n \t The new framework doesn\u2019t outright contradict the MOU, but it tries to prevent a reality in which Iran calls the shots in Lebanon, a senior US official familiar with the thinking behind the agreement told The Times of Israel.<\/p>\n The MOU states that the US, Iran, \u201cand their allies\u2026 declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon\u2026 and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon.\u201d<\/p>\n The new framework doesn\u2019t outright contradict the MOU, but it tries to prevent a reality in which Iran calls the shots in Lebanon.<\/p>\n The US official added that \u201cthe Iran MOU says sovereignty. Sovereignty means disarmament of all the militias. Israel has to leave Lebanon, but this time Iran has to leave first,\u201d the official continued, making a reference to Israel\u2019s withdrawal from the southern Lebanon security zone being tied to Lebanon\u2019s ability to restore sovereignty, meaning, ultimately, that Hezbollah cannot remain an armed force outside state control.\n<\/p>\n The framework also appears designed to prevent the US-Iran mechanism in Doha from sidelining Beirut or Jerusalem. According to a classified security annex<\/a> verified by The Times of Israel, the new framework creates a Military Coordination Group for Lebanon, or MCG4L, a 24\/7 body tasked with deconfliction, verification and implementation. Under the agreement, the cell will report to Israeli and Lebanese political authorities through indirect military-to-military channels.<\/p>\n The framework includes a minor IDF pullback in two pilot zones, though Israeli officials have stressed that future withdrawals are not automatic and that Israel\u2019s freedom of action will be preserved. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has publicly said Israel will judge the deal by the Lebanese government\u2019s and army\u2019s actions, rather than its rhetoric.<\/p>\n \t The Iran MOU appeared to help move Israel toward the framework. The agreement had been in the works for months, with Lebanese media already reporting in May on a possible \u201cstatement of intent.\u201d But the MOU added urgency by threatening to place Lebanon inside a US-Iran track just as Jerusalem and Beirut were trying to build a separate one.<\/p>\n The next question is whether the framework can change Hezbollah\u2019s incentives. Asked how it would force Hezbollah to cooperate, the US official said it primarily aims to raise the political cost of noncooperation.<\/p>\n \u201cIran cannot afford to rebuild South Lebanon, but South Lebanon has a choice: Iran again, which raises the likelihood of future war, or the Lebanese state with the support of the world, which raises the likelihood of future peace,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n In other words, the framework\u2019s backers are betting that postwar Hezbollah is far more vulnerable than it is letting on. Its Shiite base in southern Lebanon has suffered heavily, Iran\u2019s ability to fund reconstruction following Israeli strikes is in question with its failing economy, and international support for Lebanon is now being framed around sovereignty and state control.<\/p>\n \u201cHezbollah\u2019s social contract was, let us store missiles in your house and we will rebuild it. They cannot do that anymore,\u201d the official said.<\/p>\n \nShiites turn against Hezbollah\n<\/p>\n While Lebanese studies have suggested an overwhelming majority of the Shiite public continues to support Hezbollah, there are increasing signs that the group\u2019s Shiite base in southern Lebanon is faltering, according to a report<\/a> by Israel\u2019s Institute for National Security Studies.<\/p>\n The report pointed to anti-Hezbollah sentiment on social media, the expansion of Shiite opposition movements, low turnout at Hezbollah rallies, and unprecedented calls by Shiite figures to declare Tyre and Nabatieh weapons-free cities.<\/p>\n \u201cThe general impression\u201d created among the Shiite community in southern Lebanon of Hezbollah\u2019s choice to go to war against Israel in support of Iran was, \u201cthere\u2019s no money, there\u2019s destruction, and you still went [to war]. This is not the Hezbollah we knew. This is Iran. And Iran does not care about us,\u201d Hanin Ghaddar, a Shiite Lebanese scholar who grew up in southern Lebanon, told<\/a> The Times of Israel.<\/p>\n If the Lebanese state can point to American, Gulf<\/a> and European<\/a> backing for the Israel framework as an alternative, Hezbollah\u2019s weapons become easier to portray as an obstacle to recovery rather than protection.<\/p>\n The agreement has already sharpened internal Lebanese tensions. Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem rejected the deal as \u201cnull and void\u201d and stressed Hezbollah will continue its \u201cresistance\u201d to the Israeli occupation, but the group reportedly struggled to mobilize large demonstrations against the deal. At the same time, Lebanese security forces removed pro-Iran posters near Beirut airport and replaced them with \u201cLebanon first\u201d signs.<\/p>\n \t The most immediate test will be the two \u201cpilot zones,\u201d from which Israel is expected to withdraw, and the Lebanese army is expected to deploy in its place. If those zones hold, the framework could provide a model for a phased process of Israeli withdrawal, LAF deployment, US verification, and increased pressure on Hezbollah to either accept state authority or be seen as obstructing it.<\/p>\n But Hezbollah could easily try to block implementation through pressure or violence, particularly if it sees the framework as a threat to its status.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/AP26177679107945-640x400.jpg\")
\n\t\tOfficials applaud following a trilateral framework signing ceremony at the US State Department with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, top center, and, seated from left, Israel\u2019s Ambassador to the US Yechiel Leiter, counselor Dan Holler and Lebanon\u2019s Ambassador to the US Nada Hamadeh on Friday, June 26, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo\/Kevin Wolf)<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/AP26180539521345-640x400.jpg\")
\n\t\tLebanese President Joseph Aoun, right, meets with Adm. Brad Cooper, the top US military commander in the Middle East, center, at the presidential palace in Baabda, east of Beirut, Lebanon, June 29, 2026. (Lebanese Presidency press office via AP)<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/AP26173450251179-640x400.jpg\")
\n\t\tPeople check destroyed cars following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in the village of Maifadoun, southern Lebanon, June 22, 2026. (AP Photo\/Mohammed Zaatari)<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/AFP__20260628__B8KN2XN__v1__HighRes__LebanonIranIsraelUsWar-640x400.jpg\")
\n\t\tVehicles drive past billboards that read in Arabic, \u2018Lebanon first,\u2019 one of which was set on fire along Beirut\u2019s airport road near Tehran-backed Hezbollah\u2019s stronghold, amid tensions following Lebanon\u2019s framework agreement with Israel on June 28, 2026 (Ibrahim Amro \/ AFP)<\/p>\n