<\/p>\n
Cacao by Allybally4b via Pixabay <\/p>\n
September ICE NY cocoa (CCU26<\/a>) on Thursday closed down -56 (-1.10%), and September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU26<\/a>) closed down -71 (-1.86%).<\/p>\n Cocoa prices settled lower on Thursday amid some pre-weekend liquidation and position squaring, as US markets will be closed on Friday for a holiday.\u00a0 Losses in London cocoa accelerated on Thursday after the British pound (^GBPUSD<\/a>) rose to a 2-week high.\u00a0 The stronger pound undercuts cocoa priced in sterling.<\/p>\n Rising cocoa inventories are also weighing on prices.\u00a0 ICE cocoa inventories rose to a 1.75-year high of 3,017,796 bags on Wednesday.<\/p>\n Cocoa prices have rallied sharply over the past two weeks, rising by more than 20% and hitting 5.5-month highs last Thursday.\u00a0 Concerns about the upcoming West African cocoa crop pushed prices sharply higher.\u00a0Heavy rains in the Ivory Coast and Ghana have flooded roads and cut off farmers\u2019 access to farms and ports, threatening global supplies.\u00a0 Accumulated June rainfall through last Monday has already reached levels near the typical average for the entire month in both countries.\u00a0 Excessive moisture also increases the risk of brown rot disease and black pod disease on cocoa trees, reducing yields and jeopardizing the harvest.\u00a0<\/p>\n Cocoa prices also have underlying medium-term support from future weather concerns.\u00a0 On June 10, Japan\u2019s Meteorological Agency confirmed an El Ni\u00f1o weather pattern had formed across the equatorial Pacific.\u00a0 An El Ni\u00f1o typically brings warmer, drier conditions to West Africa, reducing soil moisture, stressing cocoa trees, and lowering yields.\u00a0 The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates a 67% chance of a \u201cSuper El Ni\u00f1o\u201d this year, one of the strongest ever recorded.\u00a0<\/p>\n Cocoa prices also have support from early surveys of the 2026\/27 Ivory Coast cocoa crop, which show below-average cherelle formation on cocoa trees, signaling a weak outlook for the main cocoa harvest, which begins in September.\u00a0 Early crop assessments show poor pod development and an average estimate of 1.8 MMT for the season starting in September, down -18% from about 2.2 MMT in 2025\/26.\u00a0 The markets are awaiting new surveys in July to determine the final size of the cocoa crop.<\/p>\n Cocoa prices were under recent pressure amid signs of abundant supply.\u00a0 On June 11, the Ivory Coast boosted its estimate of cocoa that has reached its ports by more than 260,000 MT so far this season.\u00a0Cumulative data from the Ivory Coast now show that farmers shipped 2.04 MMT of cocoa to ports in the current marketing year (October 1, 2025, through June 28, 2026), up +20% from the same period a year ago.\u00a0 The Ivory Coast recently said its cocoa production in 2025\/26 would fall -10.8% y\/y to 1.65 MMT from 1.85 MMT in 2024\/25.\u00a0<\/p>\n Signs of larger global cocoa supplies are negative for cocoa prices.\u00a0 Bloomberg reported last Friday that Nigerian cocoa exports in May rose +28% y\/y to 18,034 MT.\u00a0<\/p>\n Weak global cocoa demand is bearish for prices.\u00a0 The National Confectioners Association reported April 23 that North American Q1 cocoa grindings fell -3.8% y\/y to 106,087 MT.\u00a0 Also, the European Cocoa Association reported that Q1 European cocoa grindings fell -7.8% y\/y to 325,895 MT, a bigger decline than expectations of -6% y\/y and the lowest for a Q1 in 17 years.\u00a0 Conversely, the Cocoa Association of Asia reported that Q1 Asian cocoa grindings unexpectedly rose +5.2% y\/y to 223,503 MT, stronger than expectations of a decline of -6.7% y\/y.\u00a0<\/p>\n Smaller cocoa supplies from Nigeria, the world\u2019s fifth-largest cocoa producer, are supportive for prices.\u00a0 Nigeria\u2019s Cocoa Association projects that Nigerian cocoa production in 2025\/26 will fall by -11% y\/y to 305,000 MT, from a projected 344,000 MT for the 2024\/25 crop year.\u00a0<\/p>\n In February, Ghana cut the official price it pays its cocoa farmers by nearly 30% for supplies for the 2025\/26 growing season.\u00a0 In March, the Ivory Coast also said it would cut cocoa farmers\u2019 pay by 57%, effective for the mid-crop harvest that began in March.\u00a0 The Ivory Coast and Ghana produce more than half of the world\u2019s cocoa.\u00a0<\/p>\n The outlook for a smaller global cocoa surplus is supportive of cocoa prices.\u00a0 On April 29, StoneX cut its 2026\/27 global cocoa surplus estimate to 149,000 MT from a January forecast of 267,000 MT, citing risks to the West African cocoa crop from an expected El Ni\u00f1o weather event.\u00a0 StoneX also cut its 2025\/26 global cocoa surplus forecast to 247,000 MT from a January estimate of 287,000 MT.<\/p>\n On the date of publication, Rich Asplund<\/a> did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here<\/a>. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Cacao by Allybally4b via Pixabay September ICE NY cocoa (CCU26) on Thursday closed down -56 (-1.10%), and September…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":528864,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[114,184,85,46,44580],"class_list":["post-528863","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-il","tag-israel","tag-n-a"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/528863","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=528863"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/528863\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/528864"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=528863"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=528863"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=528863"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}