Warwick McKibbin, the director of the ANU\u2019s Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, said crude oil prices were likely to stay elevated for \u201cat least a year\u201d as the US-Iran war entered a new and more dangerous phase.<\/p>\n
Sign up for the Breaking News Australia email<\/a><\/p>\n The Houthis\u2019 blockade of Saudi Arabian oil through the Red Sea and the Ukrainians\u2019 increasingly successful destruction of Russian energy infrastructure had heaped further pressure on global oil supply, McKibbin said.<\/p>\n \u201cGetting access to supplies looks different now than it did a few months ago. All the reserves have been run down, particularly in the US. It\u2019s quite a serious situation for the world to be in.\u201d<\/p>\n The phasing down of the government\u2019s fuel tax relief to 16 cents per litre and this month\u2019s 37% jump in the international Brent crude benchmark has pushed the cost of unleaded to $1.80 a litre, up from a recent low of about $1.50 at the beginning of the month, according to Motormouth.<\/p>\n Graph showing average daily price for a litre of fuel in Sydney <\/a><\/p>\n Johnathan McMenamin, a senior economist at Barrenjoey, said higher global prices and the end of the remaining fuel excise discount after 2 August meant unleaded would march back above $2 a litre over coming weeks.<\/p>\n \u201cThat is an uncomfortable level for households, but it isn\u2019t something we are too unfamiliar with,\u201d McMenamin said.<\/p>\n Diesel prices are up by about 50 cents in July to about $2.20 a litre in the major East Coast cities.<\/p>\n Climbing fuel prices will be another blow to the Reserve Bank\u2019s efforts to bring inflation down while managing the damage to the economy from high energy costs.<\/p>\n McMenamin believes the central bank will pull the trigger next month \u2013 a view he had even before the latest developments in the Middle East.<\/p>\n \u201cPeople will start to see fuel prices go up again, and the concern will be that inflation expectations will once again lift among households and businesses,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n \u201cIt does matter for how long the oil price is $US100 a barrel \u2013 if it\u2019s here for only a couple of days and quickly reverses, then that will provide some relief.<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/1784476332_2_2998.jpg\")
<\/p>\n